аЯрЁБс>ўџ IKўџџџHџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅС'` јП0њ5bjbj{P{P *F::K-ЎџџџџџџЄ,,,,,,,@ш ш ш 8 $D@ ЌlLИ(рррщщщ‰‹‹‹‹‹‹$ЖhЏ,щщщщщЏ,,рр ФEEEщ|,р,р‰Eщ‰EE,,Eр` €w~|aЫш eˆE‰к0 E2э2E2,EDEщщщЏЏэXщщщ щщщщ@@@$d „@@@d @@@,,,,,,џџџџ JCOMM/SPA Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems (ET-OOFS) National Report 2010 Center Name: Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) Address: 1002 Balch Blvd, Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, USA, 39529 Author: Frank Bub (frank.bub@navy.mil, 228-688-4758) Operational Systems This is a first report for Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO). The mission of NAVOCEANO is to “Optimize seapower by applying relevant oceanographic knowledge in support of U.S. National Security.” NAVOCEANO is responsible for providing oceanographic products and services to the Department of Defense and national, civilian, and international partners. NAVOCEANO’s immediate superior is the Commander, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command (CNMOC). Subordinate commands include the Naval Ice Center in Suitland, MD and the Fleet Survey Team at Stennis Space Center. At NAVOCEANO there are approximately 1000 civilian, military and contract personnel with expertise in oceanography, hydrography, bathymetry, acoustics, geophysics, engineering, and computer sciences. Six 100m (329ft), 5,000-ton T-AGS-60 class ships are permanently deployed for multipurpose coastal to deep water data collections, including physical oceanography, chemistry, biology, marine acoustics, bottom geophysics, hydrography, and bathymetry. NAVOCEANO deploys moored and drifting buoys and floats to observe air and ocean properties, long-range acoustic data, ambient noise, and ocean currents from the ocean surface to bottom. These data are relayed to the Survey Operations Center (SOC) in real time for analysis, interpretation, and archiving. Powered autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) and gliders collect ocean volume and bottom information that is transmitted back to the center. The Compact Hydrographic Airborne Rapid Total Survey (CHARTS) collects airborne hydrographic and topographic data in shallow water areas. Daily, NAVOCEANO runs a suite of ocean circulation and wave models. These are processed on IBM and Cray mainframe computers in the Department of Defense Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) with over 240 teraflops of computing power ( HYPERLINK "http://www.navo.hpc.mil"http://www.navo.hpc.mil). The primary ocean model is the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (G-NCOM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1/8 degrees (14km/7.5nm) and 40 vertical layers. NCOM is forced by Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) wind stress and heat flux forecasts from the half-degree Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). Tidal forcing is not included in NCOM although tides from the Oregon State University Tidal Inversion Software (OTIS) model are linearly added afterwards. G-NCOM is initiated with quality-controlled observations via the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System (NCODA) using a Multi-Variant Optimal Interpolation (MVOI) scheme. Data collected daily include remotely sensed (satellite) sea surface temperature and altimetry, surface temperature, and subsurface temperature and salinity profiles from a variety of platforms. Daily 96-hour forecasts of temperature, salinity, eastward and northward currents, and surface elevation are produced by NCOM. Work is underway to extend this forecast period to eight days. The NCOM system was developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Stennis Space Center, the main R&D agent for NAVOCEANO (see:  HYPERLINK "http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs/2007/Barron-2007.pdf"http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs/2007/Barron-2007.pdf). NCOM NetCDF files and some graphics are available at:  HYPERLINK "http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml"http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml and  HYPERLINK "http://edac.northerngulfinstitute.org/opendap_index.html"http://edac.northerngulfinstitute.org/opendap_index.html. The 1/12 degree Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (G-HYCOM) is running in a pre-operational model at NAVOCEANO and is expected to replace G-NCOM after an operational test in 2011 (see below). The 1/32 degree, 7-layer Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) passes surface elevation and mixed layer thickness information to G-NCOM but its operational products are being phased out in favor of these systems with more vertical layers. The Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) is an ocean climate based on over 8 million profiles collected. Nested within the global model are higher resolution regional and coastal NCOM domains using the same algorithms as G-NCOM. The regional domains are normally 1/36 degree (3km/1.7nm) grids with 55 layers. The inner coastal domains are as high as 1/360 degree (300-500m) resolution. Depending on requirements, forecasts to 96 hours are provided. These are forced by 15km Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) fields from FNMOC. Some stateside regional and coastal NCOM data are available at the above sites. Work is also underway to add Delft3D to the production suite for coastal and estuarine support. Transition of an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave modeling system, entitled COAMPS-OS, is planned for 2011. A Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) forecasts ice properties in the Arctic using the Los Alamos Sea Ice (CICE) algorithms. An Arctic ice cap forecast system coupling PIPS and HYCOM via ESMF will become operational in 2011, with HYCOM and PIPS coupled globally by 2012. The Wave Model (WAM) provides twice daily wave forecasts at global and regional levels to 48 hours, and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model forecasts high resolution wave and surf properties in the nearshore. We anticipate that WAM will be replaced with the latest version of Wave Watch III in 2012. Ocean Forecast Events The Mississippi Canyon 252 (BP) oil spill on 20 April 2010 greatly affected the environment of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. From the start, NAVOCEANO and NRL Stennis provided forecast fields to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R), which was responsible for analyzing and forecasting the oil trajectories. The models included the 1/8 degree G-NCOM, 1/12 degree G-HYCOM, a Gulf of Mexico 1/24 degree HYCOM, and a Gulf of Mexico 1/24 degree NCOM. NAVOCEANO immediately began the implementation of a 1/36 degree American Seas Coastal NCOM, which became available to OR&R as pre-operational in early June 2010 and was declared fully operational at the end of July 2010. NAVOCEANO maintained an advisory role during this crisis. Ocean Performance Monitoring CNMOC has established a three-level development and transition process for models under the direction of the Administrative Modeling Oversight Panel (AMOP). Milestone I is met when the R&D center (i.e., NRL) has demonstrated the scientific veracity of the new system, generally through the acceptance of peer-reviewed publications. A Validation Test Panel (VTP) is then established with members of the R&D and production centers. Guided by the VTP, the R&D center prepares a series of Navy-relevant test to demonstrate that the transition will meet operational needs and also prepares a Validation Test Report (VTR). Milestone II is passed with AMOP approval of the VTR. During this period, the system is installed and turned over to the production center. An Operational Test (OPTEST) is completed to show that NAVOCEANO (or FNMOC) has integrated the delivery into its production cycle and found it meets Navy requirements. AMOP Milestone III acceptance of the OPTEST report indicates the new model or upgrade is operational. The NCODA system includes a number of model assessment tools that routinely document model skills and depict regions of higher error for ocean properties. NAVOCEANO and NRL have developed a program (entitled AutoMetrics) that routinely collects temperature and salinity profiles from models that are concurrent with shipboard CTD, profiling float (e.g., ARGO), or glider observations. While this program is relatively new, we hope to collect enough information to determine mean errors as well as spatially and seasonally changing model skills so we can advise customers on strengths and weakness and model uncertainty. Ocean Observing Systems ARGO-style profiling floats (APEX) and surface Lagrangian drifters (Davis) are placed in areas of Navy interest and their collected data are shared via the Global Telecommunications System (GTS). Additionally, two recently deployed Navy gliders that collected temperature-salinity profiles and backscatter, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and bioluminescence data in the Gulf of Mexico were made available for oil spill investigations. Ocean Observing Requirements All received data are useful for assimilation and model assessment. Satellite data that routinely sense sea surface temperature and altimetry are important to define the mesoscale front and eddy structure. Surface and profile temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time by NCODA to ensure each day’s initial analysis fields are properly adjusted toward “reality.” If we receive no profile observations and only rely on the downward projection of surface data, the model will revert to climatology. The ARGO system, voluntary ship programs, and international agreements to share data have been valuable assets for NAVOCEANO models. Although we do not assimilate ocean current observations presently, we do use the data to assess model skills, and NCODA work is underway to add them. This means that drifters, shipboard and moored observations from current meters or Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs), high frequency radar systems (CODAR), and currents inferred from gliders will become valuable information as well. Ocean Service Technologies Model data in NetCDF files are being provided at the two NOAA sites mentioned above. We are increasing our reliance on Graphical Interface System (GIS)-based analysis tools and moving away from static graphics production. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) is being developed as part of a Navy Geospatial Data Server (NGDS) capability. Via NGDS, customers are able to specify products, areas, times, and formats for their analysis and forecasting needs. Specific images or data cutouts can then be transferred for local briefs or analyses. NAVOCEANO has developed a cadre of Ocean Forecasters that interprets ocean model fields, compares them with observations, and advises Navy users on the tactical applicability and skills of our products. Future Trends Near-term plans for NAVOCEANO model improvements are addressed above. Work is underway to move NCODA from a MVOI scheme to three and eventually four dimension variational data assimilation (3D- and 4DVAR). The Modular Data Assimilation System (MODAS) will be replaced by an improved synthetic ocean profiling system with upgraded vertical mixing and mixed layer physics. Dynamic tidal forcing within HYCOM is under development. The 1/12 degree HYCOM will be moved to 1/25 degree around 2013 if the computer power is available. We are running ensembles of regional NCOM domains to provide estimates of model uncertainty and guidance for adaptive sampling and expect to make this capability operational in 2011. Global ocean ensembling awaits additional computer power. NAVOCEANO will be part of the national effort to develop an Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) that will forecast a coupled, high resolution ocean, atmosphere, ice, and land system with time scales from hours to as much as 30 years.     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