ࡱ> BD?@A'` CbjbjLULU 4D.?.?%^^^^^^^PCPCPC8C4Dth p$DD"DDDDR(E$LE$hb^\pDD\p\p^^DD*{{{\p<^D^D{\p{{ ^^oDD 0 DPCwT<@0p|^x^xo^^o`E,T {b_hN`E`E`Er{X`E`E`Ep\p\p\p\ph h h D'h h h 'r^^^^^^ WCRP/IOC Workshop on Regional Sea Level Change UNESCO/IOC, Paris 7-9 February 2011 Abstracts ( alphabetical order according to presenter) Krishna Mirle ACHUTARAO Testing the skill of (CMIP3) models in simulating observed Northern Indian Ocean sea-level changes Rory BINGHAM The impact of interannual ocean density variations on regional and global mean sea level as revealed by Argo Rory Bingham, Newcastle University, UK An analysis of the relationship between ocean density variations and fluctuations in regional and global mean sea level (GMSL) from 2004 to 2009 is presented. It is shown that although El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual fluctuations in the density field and regional sea level, the ocean's response is such that ENSO has little influence on GMSL. Comparing the observational data with results from two numerical models suggests a problem with the way numerical models represent the ocean's response to ENSO that leads to too strong a relationship between ENSO activity and GMSL variability. Analysis of the observed density field at depth reveals correlated variability in the frontal zones of three ocean basins. These changes appear related to the timing of fluctuations in global mean sea level. The mechanism by which this might happen is uncertain, although the timing of the changes in gyre circulation suggests that, through atmospheric teleconnections, an indirect link may exist between changes in global mean sea level and ENSO activity exceeding some threshold. Mark CARSON Low-frequency variability of regional sea level in millennium climate model simulations Mark Carson 1, Armin Khl 1, Detlef Stammer 1, Eduardo Zorita 2, Johann Jungclaus 3 1: KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 2: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Germany 3: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Estimates of the low-frequency variability in model simulations of SSH are explored in terms of time scale and spatial pattern. The data come from the German Millenium project, based on the coupled ECHAM/MPI-OM model, in which the last 1000 years were simulated. From those runs over 3000 years of data are available in the control run, and over 1200 years of data in the forced ensemble runs. Maps of the spatial scale and time scales show significant variability on decadal to multi-centennial timescales, especially in the subpolar and polar regions. Interannual to decadal variability (periods shorter than 10 years), is nearly global in extent. Notable exceptions include some polar regions, and portions of the mid-latitude North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Exploration into underlying dynamics shows that advection may play a large part of the SSH variability, as thermosteric and halosteric changes are largely anti-correlated, suggesting advection plays are larger role than locally-forced changes. Selected regional changes are examined in further detail. Anny CAZENAVE Spatial Trend Patterns in Sea Level from Altimetry, Past Sea Level Reconstructions and CNRM-CMIP3 Coupled Climate Model B. Meyssignac1, A. Cazenave1, D. Salas y Melia2, P. Rogel3, W. Llovel1 1: LEGOS/CNES, Toulouse 2: CNRM, Toulouse 3: CERFACS, Toulouse We have investigated the spatio-temporal variability in sea level over different time spans using observations and runs of the CNRM-CMIP3 coupled climate model. The objective of this study is to determine whether we can already attribute the observed regional sea level variability to anthropogenic forcing or if it essentially results from natural climate variability. In a first step, we have analyzed past 2-D sea level reconstructions (1950-2008) to identify the dominant modes of sea level variability (ENSO, PDO, NAO) and the characteristic lifetime of the spatial trend patterns over the last ~50 yr. We find in the past similar spatial trend patterns as those observed during the altimetry era. Their characteristic lifetime is on the order of 20-25 years. In a second step we analyzed the sea level variability simulated by a 1000-yr long control run of the CNRM-CMIP3 coupled climate model (without any external forcing). We find that the model-based sea level patterns resemble those seen in the observations, suggesting that observed spatial trend patterns essentially reflect internal natural variability of the oceanatmosphere coupled system. However the simulated patterns have a characteristic lifetime slightly larger than in the observations. The next step will consist of performing a similar analysis with the CNRM-CMIP5 model and using a model version that includes anthropogenic + solar/volcanic forcings. Don CHAMBERS Decadal-Scale Non-Steric Sea Level Changes in the North Pacific Don Chambers, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida The majority of low-frequency and decadal-scale sea level change is generally thought to be steric, with very minor non-steric changes, other than the approximately uniform fluctuations in mean ocean mass. However, from analysis of nearly a decade of Jason-1 and Jason-2 altimetry, as well as ocean bottom pressure from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we find that there are several places where non-steric OBP variations account for a substantial portion of the non-seasonal, low-frequency sea level variations (more than 60% of the variance). We will discuss one example in the North Pacific, where the both the OBP trend and sea level trend from 2003 to 2010 are nearly identical and large (~1 cm/year). We link this to a significant reduction in the wind stress curl at 30N. The reduced curl led to decreased Ekman pumping at 30N, which led to a change in the normally large pressure gradient across 30N. These results indicate that in some regions with large interannual changes in wind-curl, non-steric changes may be as important to regional patterns of sea level change as steric fluctuations. John CHURCH Regional Fingerprints of Radiative Forcing of Sea-level Rise John A Church 1, Didier Monselesan 1, Leon Rotstayn 1, Stephen Jeffrey 2, Jozef Syktus 2, 1: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Australia 2: Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence Factors controlling the regional distribution of sea-level rise are poorly understood. As part of the CSIRO and the QCCCE contribution to the WCRP CMIP5, the CSIRO Mark 3.6 model has been run for 1850 to 2005 with individual radiative forcings. Each ensemble has 10 members, branching from a different epoch in the 500 year pre-industrial control run. We evaluate the regional sea-level response in the ensemble means to each of the different forcings. Catia DOMINGUES Observed and simulated regional patterns of thermosteric sea-level rise Catia M. Domingues 1, John A. Church 2 3, Neil J. White 2 3, Didier P. Monselesan 2, Peter J. Gleckler 4, Susan E. Wijffels 2, Paul M. Barker 3, and Jeff R. Dunn 2 1: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia 2: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO, Hobart, Australia 3: Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research centre, Hobart, Australia 4: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI/LLNL), Livermore, USA Thermosteric sea level is a major factor contributing to the observed global mean sea-level rise in the latter half of the 20th century and is likely to be one of the largest contributing factors in the 21st century. Regional patterns of sea-level rise are produced in response to dynamical processes. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) model simulations disagree in regional patterns. Comparisons with observations are required to help understand these differences and to increase confidence in projections of regional sea-level rise. Here, we describe updated estimates of thermosteric sea level at global and regional scales, and compare them with CMIP3 climate model simulations. Our estimates indicate a global mean thermosteric sea-level rise of about 0.59 0.07 mm yr-1 for 1961-2008 in the upper 700 m of the oceans, with 15% contribution from the Indian Ocean, 35% from the Atlantic Ocean and 50% from the Pacific Ocean. The thermosteric contribution is about 25-35% of the total sea-level rise. Regional patterns of observed sea level change are complex and sensitive to the period over which trends are calculated. Comparison with CMIP3 simulations (1961-1999) shows that the ensemble average of models, without volcanic forcing lack the observed Pacific Ocean trend patterns and overestimate the observed mean trend. The ensemble average of models with volcanic forcing compare better with the observed Pacific patterns but agree less in the South Atlantic and South Indian oceans. They also underestimate the observed global mean trend. Thermosteric sea-level rise along 40oS is strikingly stronger in non-volcanic models than in volcanic models but intriguingly missing in our observed patterns. Paul DURACK, Susan WIJFFELS Revisiting Halosteric and Thermosteric Sea Level Rise 1950-2000 Paul J. Durack 1, 2, Susan E. Wijffels 1 1: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia 2: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia A new global analysis of linear trends in historical and Argo Program observed ocean profile data quantifies both the halosteric and thermosteric changes in sea-level down to 1800m over the past 50-years, and more importantly their regional patterns. Total steric change 1950-2000 is 35mm (27mm) integrated to a depth of 1800m (700m). These are consistent with the current best steric estimates accounting for around half of total 20th century observed sea-level rise, with the remainder attributed to mass contributions from the cryosphere. Of this 6mm or 20% (3mm or 10%) is due to globally integrated halosteric effects. The global halosteric average is comprised of a very small halosteric sealevel rise due to terrestrial ice melt (freshening) but must be dominated by errors in the global number. Regional halosteric effects are spatially coherent, stronger and more statistically robust. In parts of the regional ocean such as the South Pacific, South Indian and North Atlantic basins, depth-integrated halosteric changes can account for around 50% of the total steric signal. In the Atlantic this halosteric contraction strongly counteracts thermosteric expansion. Regional patterns of steric change show highs along the axis of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (likely associated with its southward shift) and in the North Pacific and Atlantic subtropical gyres. Reduced steric sea-level is found around northern Australia, the eastern Indian Ocean and the subpolar North-western Pacific. Depth-integrated halosteric changes down to 1800m are shown to be the leading steric change for 34% of the global ocean area. Contraction (enhanced salinity) is observed throughout the Atlantic between 45N and 45S and the North Indian Ocean. Expansion is observed through most of the Pacific and Southern Oceans associated largely with Mode Water freshening. The patterns of halosteric change largely reflect a strengthening of existing inter-basin salinity contrasts (both surface and subsurface), consistent with an amplification of the climatological mean salinity pattern and an enhanced water cycle over the period of analysis. Ichiro FUKUMORI Distinguishing Sea Level Change due to Heating and Freshwater Input from Redistribution by Ocean Circulation Ichiro Fukumori, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, USA The geographic variations of decadal sea level change are studied in relation to their global mean by analyzing regional differences of forcing and ocean circulation. An ocean general circulation model constrained by satellite and in situ measurements is employed to study the observed changes from 1993 to 2004. The effects of external diabatic forcing and those of ocean circulation are distinguished from each other by using simulated passive tracers to quantify the relative change in heat and freshwater distribution driven by the different processes. Regional sea level change can largely be attributed to water mass redistribution by changing ocean circulation. Direct effects of heat and freshwater input are found to be secondary except for a warming in the warm pool region of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Peter GLECKLER Exploring the impact of model and data uncertainties in the detection and attribution of upper-ocean warming Peter J. Gleckler 1, B. D. Santer 1, C. M. Domingues 2, D. W. Pierce 3, T. P. Barnett 3, K. Achuta Rao 4, J. A. Church 2, M. Ishii 5, and K. E. Taylor 1 1: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 2: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Austraila 3: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA 92037 4: Delhi Institute of Technology, Delhi, India 5: Frontiers Center for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan Large-scale increases in upper ocean heat content (OHC) are evident in the observational record of the past fifty years. Several studies have made use of well-established detection and attribution (D&A) methods to demonstrate that the observed changes are consistent with model-based estimates of the OHC response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, and inconsistent with model estimates of natural variability. The recent identification of systematic XBT biases in observational OHC records has led to new estimates of global scale OHC variability and trends. This provides motivation for a re-examination of previous D&A findings. In the present study, we use these newer estimates of OHC change to further examine the causes of ocean warming. We perform a comprehensive assessment of the sensitivity of ocean heat content D&A results to: 1) measurement biases in observations; 2) incomplete, time-varying spatial coverage of observational data; 3) methods used to remove residual drift from model simulations; and 4) the inclusion or neglect of volcanic forcings in model simulations. Previous D&A studies involving OHC changes have relied on simulations from one or two individual models. Our D&A analysis is conducted in a multi-model framework, in which results from over a dozen coupled models are used to estimate the response to external forcing and the noise of natural internal variability. We find that signal-to-noise ratios show some sensitivity to the model and data uncertainties considered here. However, our results suggest that the positive identification of a human-caused warming signal in observed OHC changes is generally robust to these uncertainties. This is consistent with findings from previous single model D&A studies based on earlier versions of observational OHC datasets (which did not include XBT bias corrections). Natalya GOMEZ Sea Level as a Stabilizing Factor for Marine Ice Sheets Natalya Gomez (presenter), Jerry Mitrovica, David Pollard, Peter Huybers and Peter Clark An instability mechanism is widely predicted for marine ice sheets resting upon reversed bed slopes. In this case, ice-sheet thinning or rising sea level is thought to lead to irreversible retreat of the grounding. Previous analyses of marine ice-sheet stability have considered the influence of a sea-level perturbation on ice-sheet stability by assuming a geographically uniform, or eustatic, change in sea level. However, gravitational, deformational and rotational effects associated with rapid changes in the volume of grounded ice lead to markedly non-uniform spatial patterns of sea-level change. In particular, a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level theory predicts a near-field sea-level change of opposite sign, and an order of magnitude greater amplitude, than would be predicted assuming eustasy. We present a suite of predictions of gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes following the migration of a marine ice-sheet grounding line, exploring a parameter space governed by bed slope, ice sheet size and melt geometry. We demonstrate, by coupling the sea-level predictions to a dynamic ice-sheet model, that these sea-level changes contribute a stabilizing influence on the ice-sheet grounding line. The sea-level results may be combined with the bed slope at the grounding line to compute an effective topographic slope that will be higher (less reversed) than the observed slope and this allows a simple parameterization of the sea-level stabilization mechanism. We conclude that including the stabilization mechanism into models of ice-sheet dynamics should lead to improved estimates of the stability and possible rates of change of marine-ice sheets. Steve GRIFFIES Ocean model algorithms directly impacting sea level simulations and analysis methods used to characterize sea level change Stephen Griffies and collaborators This presentation reviews certain aspects of ocean model algorithms that impact the simulation of sea level in climate models, and methods used to analyze such models in order to characterize mechanisms for sea level change. Topics raised include the barotropic solver; surface water flux boundary conditions; steric effects; the Boussinesq approximation; wetting/drying; and an evolving gravity field. It is argued that transitioning ocean climate models to the reasonably mature non-Boussinesq primitive equations with water flux boundary conditions reduces uncertainty associated with algorithm choices, and enhances the scientific communication between climate scientists and geophysicists. Developments toward robust wetting and drying algorithms are required to couple evolving land ice models to ocean models, with such efforts only now being considered by modeling centres. Research is also necessary to determine the importance of an evolving gravity field, associated with both astronomical tides and ice sheet rearrangements, on the ocean climate. Weiqing HAN Indian Ocean sea level change in a warming climate W. Han 1, G. Meehl 2, B. Rajagopalan 3, J. Fasullo 2, A. Hu 2, J. Lin 4, W. Large 2, J. Wang 1, X. Quan 5, L. Trenary 1, A. Wallcraft 6, T. Shinoda 6, S. Yeager 2 1: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, USA 2: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA 3: Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering/CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA 4: Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, USA 5: CIRES, University of Colorado/ESRL NOAA, USA 6: Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, USA Available observations indicate a global sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater from melting continental ice. Regional changes of sea level in the Indian Ocean (IO), which hosts lowland countries such as the Maldives, remain enigmatic because long-term observations are limited. How anthropogenic warming affects IO atmosphere-ocean circulation is unclear. Yet, regional estimates of future sea level rise are essential for effective risk assessment. By combining in situ and satellite observations with model experiments, here we show a distinct spatial pattern of IO sea level change since the 1960s. Sea level has substantially decreased in the south tropical IO but increased elsewhere. This pattern is driven by changing surface wind associated with a combined enhancement of IO Hadley and Walker cells (atmospheric north-south and east-west overturning circulations, respectively), which is partly forced by the Indo-Pacific warm pool warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gases. Both the sea level and wind signals are robust to observational sampling and model differences. They imply that if ongoing anthropogenic warming dominates natural variability, this pattern is likely to persist and increase stress on the habitability and social structure of some coasts and islands. Carling HAY Detecting the sea level fingerprint of Polar Ice Mass Changes Carling C. Hay, JerryX. Mitrovica, Robert E. Kopp, Stephen M. Griffies, Jianjun Yin, Ronald J.Stouffer Modern observations of sea-level (SL) change,including tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements, record a combinationof dynamic and static equilibrium SL signals. Dynamic SLchanges arise from,for example, temperature and salinity variations, air-sea interactions, oceandynamics, and long-term tides. Static SL change refers to the equilibriumgravitational,deformational and rotational signature of ice-ocean massredistribution. It is now widely appreciated that the rapid melting of anindividual ice sheet or glacier will produce a uniquegeometry, or fingerprint,in static (and hence total) SL; this physics raises the possibility that anetwork of SL observations with sufficient geographic distribution andsignal-to-noiseproperties may be used to move beyond estimates of a globallyaveraged SL change to infer the individual sources of meltwater flux into theoceans in our warming world. In practice, it maybe difficult to detect the SLfingerprints in the presence of a confounding dynamic variability, particularlyin records of relatively short duration. To explore this issue, we haveperformed alarge series of detection experiments based on a suite of syntheticSL data sets. In particular, the synthetics were constructed by combiningde-trended tide gauge and satellite altimetrydata with sea-level fingerprintscomputed for a variety of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic IceSheet (WAIS) melt scenarios. With these synthetics in hand, we theninvestigatedour ability to robustly detect the two SL fingerprints bysystematically varying the time span of the synthetic records, their geographiclocation and the relative and absolute size of the WAISand GIS mass fluxes.The experiments have yielded a broad set of detection criteria involvingminimum time spans and optimal geographic distributions for both tide gaugeand/or satellitealtimetry records. We will comment on the implications ofthese guidelines for efforts to infer past (e.g., 20thcentury) andfuture changes in polar ice sheet mass balance. Chris HUGHES, Towards a separation of the physical processes behind sea level change Chris W. Hughes 1, Joanne Williams 1, Chris Wilson 1, Rory Bingham 2 and Thierry Penduff 3 1: National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK 2: University of Newcastle, UK 3: Florida State University, USA Using diagnostics from a variety of eddying ocean models, with resolution up to 1/12 degree, and a barotropic model, we are beginning to unpick the physics behind the dominant modes of variability. We find that, in the open ocean, the sea level signal is dominated by steric variability, and that bottom pressure has a characteristic spectrum quite different from that of sea level. However, coastal sea level can be considered to be either sea level or bottom pressure, so there is an important question about how the different processes controlling bottom pressure and sea level evolve on entering shallow water. We find that steep slopes strongly suppress the mesoscale variability which is important for much of the steric signal, and that bottom density and bottom currents on the slope, associated with the Meridional Overturning Circulation, reconcile the sea level and bottom pressure signals as water becomes shallower. The steep continental slope emerges from this analysis as a particularly important region, both for effective monitoring and for physical understanding. Caroline KATSMAN Regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change Caroline A. Katsman, Aimee B. A. Slangen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bert L. Vermeersen, Riccardo E. M. Riva So far, sea-level projections published in the various IPCC reports have considered the global mean rise. However, it is known that local sea level change can deviate substantially from the global mean, and hence there is a need for regional scenarios for sea-level rise. This is acknowledged by the scientific community, as is clear from the planned publication of such scenarios in the fifth IPCC Assessment Report. As a first step towards this goal, we present maps of twenty-first century local relative sea-level (RSL) change constructed based on the same ensemble of climate model simulations used as the basis for the global projections presented in IPCC 4AR. We consider three different emission scenarios. The contribution of small glaciers is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach, and the contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are taken from IPCC 4AR. The sea-level pattern resulting from these land ice mass changes is then calculated using a self-gravitating rotational sea-level model. To this, we add the modeled pattern of steric sea level changes and an estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. As expected, the resulting ensemble mean pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean, with a maximum larger than twice the global mean and also regions where a sunstantial drop in sea level is expected. The ensemble spread appears to be dominated by the spread in the steric contribution. For individual locations, the one sigma uncertainty in the ensemble is approximately 20 cm. Birgit KLEIN Requirements on regional sea level analysis from the perspective of an operational marine service provider Birgit Klein and Stephan Dick, Bundesamt fr Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH), Germany BSH, as the operational marine service provider in Germany, is under legal obligation to issue water level forecasts for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast as well as storm surge warnings. Different operational tools are used to support the BSH's water level prediction service ranging from empirical statistical methods to hydrodynamic numerical models. The main aim of the BSH service it to support maritime shipping and to contribute to the protection of the coast, the people and their property. In that context the study of the entire tidal signal is needed which means that beside the long-term evolution of the Mean Sea Level especially changes in the tidal high and low waters have to be known. Climate models with proper representation of tides are needed to study regional sea level changes and variability in the North Sea as well as the interaction between tide, surge and mean sea level changes. These analyses would require high temporal and spatial resolution which are presently not available from climate model output. The interpretation of the observed changes in tidal amplitudes and phases to date is still sparse and more investigations are needed. At the open boundary of the North Sea, the operational BSH model is forced by tidal elevations based on harmonic constants of 14 tidal constituents. It is critical to know whether and, if yes, how the tidal signal is changing and at which time scales in order to make provisions to adapt the model. Adaptation measures concerning sea level changes are presently mostly based on global climate model projections. More reliable regional projections which include all important processes (e.g. tides and ice) are urgently needed. In the framework of KLIWAS, funded by the BMVBS, climate model runs have therefore been initiated by BSH which use either regional coupled-shelf models or a global model with increased resolution over the North Sea. Climate runs from these models will be analysed during the project and will support our assessment of climate change in the North Sea and appropriate adaptation measures. The treatment of glacial ice melt, its regional effects on the North Sea, the associated time scales and realistic error estimates seems to be critical and are presently insufficiently known. Till KUHLBRODT The regional structure of ocean heat uptake and its causes Till Kuhlbrodt and Jonathan M. Gregory, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK Ocean heat uptake is a strong contributor to the observed and the predicted sea level rise. This study investigates the regional patterns of ocean heat uptake in the 20th and 21st centuries using output from the AR4 climate model ensemble. For the last three decades of the 20th century, the ensemble mean shows significant heat uptake in the tropical Atlantic and in sections of a band in the Southern Ocean around 45S. About half of this heat is taken up by the deep ocean below 700m depth. In the SRES A1B scenarios in the course of the 21st century, the ensemble mean shows a significant ocean heat uptake in almost the entire world ocean. Exceptions are some subpolar regions in the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, and parts of the Arctic. The pattern resembles the ensemble mean thermosteric sea level rise. Similar to the 20th century simulations, the deep ocean plays an important role. In the Southern Ocean and parts of the Atlantic it takes up more heat than the upper layer (0 to 700m). We studied which heat transport processes lead to the regional patterns, with an emphasis on heat transport along isopycnals and on the role of the initial ocean state. Kurt LAMBECK The certainties and uncertainties of regional variations in sea level due to glacio-hydro isostatic processes Kurt Lambeck, Research School of Earth Sciences, Building 61, Mills Road, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Felix LANDERER Probabilistic projections of regional sea-level rise Mah Perrette1, Riccardo Riva 2, Katja Frieler 1, Thomas Schneider von Deimling 1, Bill Hare 1, Malte Meinshausen 1, Felix Landerer 3 1: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany 2: Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems, University of Technology, Netherlands 3: Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA Sea-level projections for 21st century are often addressed in term of global mean change or with a focus on spatial patterns resulting from a single component. Here, we present an aggregated view of regional sea-level change in a probabilistic framework for a range of newer RCP emission scenarios. We decompose the global mean rise into its various contributions and then combine them with their respective regional sea-level fingerprints, i.e. AOGCM spatial patterns of steric expansion and gravitational effects from continental-ice melt. Unlike thermal expansion and glaciers, which are calculated directly, Antarctica and Greenland ice contributions (including nearby glaciers) are assumed in our default setting as residual from a semi-empirical model for total sea-level rise. This results in rapid rise at low latitudes because of water moving away from ice sheets and polar glaciers due to changes in the gravity field. A zonal structure is present as well, sea-level rise being up to 20% greater along Chinese coast than along Europe at the same latitude. Changes in ocean dynamics are secondary in this context, but they tend to strengthen an east-west gradient in Pacific sea-level rise and amplify the rise in the Indian Ocean. However, they significantly contribute to regional spread in the projections, meaning that a large contribution of ocean dynamics in certain locations is within the range of uncertainty. We compare our default results with patterns reconstructed from independent estimates of global mean ice-sheet contributions, namely from the IPCC AR4 scaled up estimate and a high-end estimate based on glaciological constraints. The SLR patterns based on the IPCC AR4 are primarily influenced by ocean dynamics and high-latitude glaciers, because ice sheets were projected to have a small contribution over the 21st century in AR4. On the other hand, our pattern is found to vary little as compared to the glaciological limit estimate where land-ice plays a larger role, which cannot be ruled out in the context to their currently observed acceleration. Our study is a first step toward probabilistic forecast of regional sea-level from knowledge of global mean quantities and associated patterns, and could easily be updated with new estimates of land-ice contributions when process-based model simulations become available that more closely reflect observed ice-sheet behavior. Eric LEULIETTE Regional sea level budgets and ocean mass transport estimates from GRACE, altimetry, and Argo Leuliette and Miller One way to interpret the sea level climate data record is to evaluate the relative contributions to sea level rise budget the major processes that alter the total volume of the ocean. Changes in the total heat content and salinity produce density (steric) changes. The exchange of water between the oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, and other land water reservoirs) results in mass variations. The effects of glacial isostatic adjustment must also be considered. With sufficient observations of sea level, ocean temperatures and salinity, and either land reservoirs or ocean mass, the total budget of global mean sea level can in principle be closed. Here we present seven years of altimetry observations of total sea level, upper ocean steric sea level from the Argo array, and ocean mass variations inferred from GRACE gravity mission observations and assess closure of the sea level rise budget in the major basins. Closure of regional sea level rise budgets can only be accomplished where all three observing systems are available, which requires excluding coastal regions. Since 2002 coastal sea level rise has been significantly larger than the trend for global mean sea level. For example, from 2005.5 to 2010.5 the trend for the complete Jason-1/Jason-2 coverage area (to 66) is 2.6 mm/year. If areas less than 120 m depth are excluded, the trend is 2.3 mm/year and if locations within 200 km from the coast are excluded, the trend is 1.9 mm/year. We update the results Chambers and Willis [2009], which found significant interannual mass losses from the Indian Ocean in GRACE observations for 2002 to 2008. We also discuss the impact of reference frame errors on regional sea level rise estimates and differences between Envisat and Jason observations. Parluhutan MANURUNG Web-based Real Time Monitoring, Improving Long Term Sea Level Data Time Series in Indonesia Parluhutan Manurung, National Coordinating Agency for Survey and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong INDONESIA Time series of sea level data observed from tide gauge network in Indonesia Archipelago is relatively short and there are some inconsistencies in the tidal references and many gaps in the data records, leading to inaccuracy of determining the rate of sea level change in the region. Mean while, the satellite altimetry data record in the coastal area and shallow waters is less accurate. Therefore, it is required to improve the altimetry data by introducing shallow-water specific method, known re-tracking. A set of high rate coastal gauge data is then required to best fit and calibrate the altimetry-derived sea level reconstruction. The system has been modernized using real time data communication with GPRS and BGAN where GPRS coverage is not available. A GPS receiver is used for time control and two sets of auto level switch are used for height control at each stations. The streaming of high rate data from the remote sites to the National Sea Level Centre is displayed online via web based resulting in ease of easiness in monitoring the system performance and providing a quick response for repairing the stations, if any destructions occurred. Modernization of the Network, consisting of 115 stations as of January 2011, to real time web-based shows that the system has been improving significantly in terms of reliability and data recording performance which could highly support sea level change study, including natural hazard monitoring. Shayne MCGREGOR Wind effects on past and future regional sea-level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin and Shayne McGregor Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 0.7 mm/yr (Bindoff et al. 2007) with an accelerating tendency (Church and White 2006; Rahmstorf 2007). However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced redistributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise. Mark MERRIFIELD Recent regional sea-level trends in the Pacific Mark Merrifield and Mat Maltrud Pacific sea level trends during the period of high-accuracy satellite altimetry (1993-2009) are examined in the context of longer tide gauge records. The dominant regional patterns are high rates in the western tropical Pacific and minimal to negative rates in the eastern Pacific, particularly along the North American continent. Interannual sea level variations associated with ENSO events do not account for these trends. Tide gauge records indicate that the recent high rates in the western tropical Pacific represent an abrupt increase in trend relative to the period 1950-1990. The western Pacific trend change corresponds to an increase in the strength of the trade winds in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Model simulations confirm that the increasing trade winds account for the western Pacific sea-level rise pattern. The trade wind increase does not correlate with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The recent negative sea level trends at the eastern boundary of the Pacific are linked to changes in local wind forcing, which correlates with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and in general are associated with more cyclical variability than in the western Pacific. It is speculated that the enhancement of the trades winds and the changes in western Pacific sea level reflect a strengthening trend of the atmospheric circulation since the early 1990s. Laury MILLER Gyre-scale atmospheric pressure variations and their relation to 19th and 20th century sea level rise Laury Miller and Bruce C. Douglas Most of the long tide gauge records in the North Atlantic and North Pacific commonly used to estimate global sea level rise and acceleration display a marked difference in behavior in the late 1800s early 1900s compared to the latter half of the 20th century. The rates of sea level rise tend to be lower in the 19th compared to 20th century. We show this behavior may be related to long-term, gyre-scale surface pressure variations similar to those associated with the Northern Annular Mode. As sea level pressure increases (decreases) at decadal and longer timescales at the centers of the subtropical atmospheric gyres, sea level trends along the eastern margins in each ocean basin decrease (increase). This is not an isostatic response; the scaling between local surface pressure and sea level at interannual and longer timescales is 3 to 6 times greater than expected by that mechanism. Rather, it appears to be the result of large, possibly gyre-scale changes in ocean circulation. Some evidence is also presented indicating slow, _2 cm/sec, westward propagation of sea level changes in the Atlantic from the west coast of Europe to the east coast of the U.S. which produce the decadal variability seen there. Gary MITCHUM Low frequency sea level variations on the boundaries of the North Atlantic Philip R. Thompson and Gary T. Mitchum, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, USA Sea level variations observed by tide gauges over the period 1950 to present show substantial energy in a period band spanning roughly 5-20 years, as has been noted previously. We have undertaken a reanalysis of these variations using longer time series than were used previously. The sea level anomalies are remarkably coherent from the western Gulf of Mexico to Nova Scotia, which was not clear in the earlier studies. We also document (for the first time to our knowledge) an out of phase coherence with sea level variations on the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic. Previous explanations for these signals by Sturges and coworkers and by Hakkinen are, in our view, inadequate to fully account for the observations. We have very recently examined the GECCO model output and find that this model demonstrates reasonable skill in simulating the observed signals. We are presently diagnosing the model output in order to quantitatively evaluate the mechanisms proposed by Sturges et al. and Hakkinen and these results will be the focus of our presentation. Anne PARDAENS A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century. Anne Pardaens 1, Jonathan Gregory 1, Jason Lowe 1 and Jonathan Gregory 2 1: Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 2: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric change characterizes the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes. Rui PONTE Some challenges in the study of regional sea level variability Rui M. Ponte As one moves from the analysis of global mean sea level trends to the consideration of regional sea level variability and its relevant dynamics and forcing, different challenging questions take center stage. What are the relevant spatial scales of variability as a function of time scale? Are different physics affecting the coastal and deep ocean variability? For what regions and time scales are contributions of deep density (steric) changes important? What are the relative roles of advection, diffusion and surface forcing in accounting for observed patterns of sea level variability? For the purposes of the workshop, I intend to touch on some aspects of these questions using ongoing analyses of tide gauge records, altimeter data, and model-data syntheses produced under the ECCO project. The focus will be on regional variability at interannual to decadal time scales. More than providing polished results, this contribution seeks to raise important data and model issues and stimulate discussion on how to go about addressing those issues more fully in the future. Bo QIU Regional Sea Level and Circulation Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean Bo Qiu Sea level rise in the tropical western Pacific Ocean has been observed to exceed 10 mm/yr over the last two decades. This rate of increase is three times faster than the global mean value of sea level rise and can be attributed generally to the surface wind stress changes associated with the strengthening of the Walker circulation. In this study, we first describe the upper ocean circulation and property (i.e. temperature/salinity) changes in connection to the regional sea level rise based on available in-situ hydrographic observations. Both a linear and nonlinear upper ocean model are used next to elucidate the dynamic roles played by the time-varying surface wind stress field. Dean ROEMMICH A global view of regional steric sea level variability, 2004 2010, from the Argo Program Dean Roemmich A draft abstract is attached. The motivation here is that we now have a 7-year (2004-2010) record of concurrent Argo steric height and altimetric sea surface height on a global basis. I think it's of great interest to compare these and to identify (the small) systematic regional differences in their seasonal-to-interannual variability that might be understood either through additional observations (e.g. GRACE) or from modelling studies. Argo's contribution to global change estimation must follow careful analysis of data from the Argo era. Jens SCHROETER Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks Jens Schrter, Manfred Wenzel, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany The 20th century regional and global sea level variations are estimated based on long-term tide gauge records. For this the neural network technique is utilized that connects the coastal sea level with the regional and global mean via a nonlinear empirical relationship. Two major difficulties are overcome this way: the vertical movement of tide gauges over time and the problem of what weighting function to choose for each individual tide gauge record. Neural networks are also used to fill data gaps in the tide gauge records, which is a prerequisite for our analysis technique. A suite of different gap-filling strategies is tested which provides information about stability and variance of the results. The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 0.25 mm/yr, which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. At present we consider the reconstruction of North Atlantic sea level on a basis of EOF/principal components. Components are estimated from surrounding tide gauges using neural networks while EOFs are provide by satellite altimetry. C. K. SHUM On the Geophysical Causes of Present-Day Sea-Level Rise C.K. Shum 1, Chungyen Kuo 2, Junyi Guo 1 1: Division of Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State Univ., USA 2: Department of Geomatics, National Chung-Kung University, Taiwan It is widely believe that anthropogenic warming has caused an accelerated sea level rise since the onset of the pre-industrial era as evidenced by the observed 20th century and present-day (first decade of the 21st century) sea-level rise rate of 1.8 mm/yr, compared to 0.1 mm/yr during the previous 5 centuries before 1900. However, the evidence of the anthropogenic signals in the present-day sea level rise is arguably elusive. Recent post 2007 IPCC AR4 published various geophysical causes contributing to present-day sea-level rise have large discrepancies. Here we address the contemporary scientific question whether the geophysical causes contributing to the present-day global and regional sea-level rise could be fully explained by current sea-level observations. Detlef STAMMER Response of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System to Greenland Ice Melting D. Stammer, N. Agarwal, P. Herrmann, A. Khl, C. R. Mechoso We investigate the transient response of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere system to enhanced freshwater forcing representative of melting of the Greenland ice sheets. A 50-year long simulation by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is compared with another of the same length in which Greenland melting is prescribed. To highlight the importance of coupled atmosphere-ocean processes, the CGCM results are compared with those of two other experiments carried out with the oceanic component of the coupled model (OGCM). In one of these OGCM experiments the prescribed surface fluxes of heat, momentum and freshwater correspond to the unperturbed simulation by the CGCM; in the other experiment Greenland melting is added to the freshwater flux. The responses by the CGCM and OGCM to the Greenland melting have similar patterns in the Atlantic, albeit the former have five times larger amplitudes in sea level anomalies. The CGCM shows likewise stronger variability in all state variables in all ocean basins because the impact of Greenland melting is quickly communicated to all ocean basins via atmospheric bridges. We conclude that the response of the global climate to Greenland ice melting is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. These lead to reduced latent heat flux into the atmosphere and an associated increase in net freshwater flux into the ocean, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic. The combined result is a stronger response of the coupled system to Greenland ice sheet melting. Tatsuo SUZUKI Regional distribution of sea level changes resulting from enhanced greenhouse warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 (MIROC 3.2) Tatsuo Suzuki 1, Masayoshi Ishii 1 2 1: Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan 2: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan Using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 (MIROC 3.2), we investigated the physical nature of regional sea level changes due to enhanced greenhouse warming. We conducted idealized experiments to examine the causes of regional changes, following Lowe and Gregory [2006] and focused on the vertical pressure structure corresponding to the baroclinic sea level change. The regional sea level changes were not spatially uniform, and their patterns were principally determined by the baroclinic component (density change) due to surface fluxes of heat, freshwater, and wind stress. Sea level changes in the barotropic circulation were mainly confined to the Southern Ocean. These results are almost consistent with the previous study by Lowe and Gregory [2006]. We also decomposed the baroclinic response into vertical modes of ocean climatological stratification, considering the vertical structure of the baroclinic pressure change. The first baroclinic mode was responsible for about 78% of the variance in the baroclinic response, suggesting that the regional distribution of sea level change under global warming is mainly determined by displacement of the main pycnocline. These changes are almost solely responsible for the wind changes except over the Arctic Sea, where the freshwater flux change is dominant. The second and third modes were responsible for about 12% and 4% of the variance, respectively, some of which was related to subduction of the global warming signal. The fourth and higher modes represent only 6% of the total variance. Because the contributions of the higher modes to baroclinic pressure changes are generally large near the surface, composites of the fourth and higher baroclinic modes could partly explain the local water density changes near the surface in the Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The decomposition of the baroclinic response mentioned above is suggestive of sea level changes due to global warming as results of region-by-region physical processes. Mark TAMISIEA Contribution of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to GRACE Estimates of Sea Level Change When interpreting observations of regional sea level change, the ongoing crustal motion and gravity changes due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can be significant. In particular, GIA has a large impact on the attribution of apparent mass changes over the ocean derived from GRACE. GRACE observations are often interpreted as changes in water thickness (labeled water equivalent or w.e.). However, the gravity changes due to GIA are primarily due to the motion of crust and mantle. Because of the density difference between solid earth and water, small motions of the crust lead to much larger apparent changes in water thickness. In this sense, GIA can cause apparent sea level drops in areas off the North American east coast of over 5 mm/yr w.e., while in sea level in regions of the Barents Sea are rising by more than 5 mm/yr w.e. The sum over the entire ocean of the apparent water thickness change leads to a value on the order of -1 mm/yr w.e., with a large range due to uncertainties in earth model parameters and ice sheet histories. Unfortunately, this sum is highly dependent upon the averaging region and the processing techniques employed in a GRACE-style analysis, causing variations of the sum of up to 0.4 mm/yr. The spatial variability of the fields also implies that regional averages will have a wide range of values. In this presentation, I illustrate how the modelling predictions lead to these values, pointing out mistakes that have lead to incorrect estimates in some past studies, and discuss the implications for regional studies. Ralph WEISSE Regional Mean Sea Level Changes in the German Bight in the 20th Century Ralf Weisse 1, Frauke Albrecht 1, Thomas Wahl 2, Jrgen Jensen 2, Hans von Storch 1 1: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany. 2: Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany. Changes of global mean sea level and the possibility of future accelerations in global mean sea level rise are of outstanding relevance for both, scientific and public interest. Sea level is not expected to rise uniformly across the globe, but deviations on regional and local scale being the result of various processes are likely to occur. Here we address regional mean sea level changes in the German Bight, the south eastern part of the North Sea bounded by the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Changes are analyzed based on a homogenised data set from 15 tide gauges ranging back up to 1843 at maximum. Different methods for constructing a representative time series are employed ranging from simple arithmetic averaging to investigating the covariance structure of the data by means of empirical orthogonal functions. While some differences can be identified the methods provide broadly consistent results with long-term trends ranging from about 1.6 to 2.0 mm/yr depending on the period considered and with considerable inter-annual and inter-decadal variability superimposed. While rates of sea level rise are somewhat higher towards the end of the analysis period, they are comparable with those derived for earlier periods and no outstanding acceleration could be identified. While the long-term trend of the regional mean sea level in the German Bight appears to be comparable to the long-term global mean sea level rise, there are considerable deviations on inter-annual and decadal scales. The latter appears to be linked and can be largely explained by long-term changes and variability of the large-scale atmospheric pressure fields. Using the techniques developed, presently an attempt is underway to consistently analyse tide gauges from all countries surrounding the North Sea to obtain a spatially more detailed picture of regional mean sea level changes in the North Sea Josh WILLIS Explaining regional sea level variations during the satellite altimeter era Josh Willis and Ichiro Fukumori, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA While there has been a relatively robust scientific effort to estimate, understand and project global sea level rise, there has been considerably less effort to understand regional sea level changes. Ironically, global sea level rise during the last century and a half has been on the order of 20 cm, but altimeter data have shown that 20 cm fluctuations in regional sea level are quite common, even in 1-year average fields. Because it is not global sea level rise, but rather local, relative sea level change that is of societal importance, these regional variations are critical for placing the global rate of rise into an appropriate context. Numerous previous efforts have shown that much of the regional sea level signal can be explained by upper ocean temperature variations. However, regions such as the far north Atlantic and Pacific, and certain parts of the Southern Ocean contain sea level signals that appear to be related to either deep steric changes or changes in the salinity field. We will characterize these signals using estimates of thermosteric sea level based on a variety of in situ and satellite data as well as output from the ECCO ocean state estimate. To the extent that such regional signals can be explained and removed from the satellite altimeter record, it may be possible to detect other geophysical signals such as redistribution of ocean mass due to changes in the geoid that are expected to grow as ice is lost from the continents. Philip WOODWORTH Identifying and Understanding Changes in Sea Level around the North Atlantic Philip Woodworth 1, Miguel Angel Morales Maqueda 1, Chris Hughes 1, Simon Holgate 1 Natasha Barlow 2, Antony Long 2, Margot Saher 3 and Roland Gehrels 3, Vassil Roussenov 4, Ric Williams 4 1: National Oceanography Centre Liverpool, UK 2: University of Durham, UK 3: University of Plymouth, UK 4: Liverpool University, UK North Atlantic coastlines provide one the best regional data sets of tide gauge information in the world for studying long-term changes in sea level. For example, this data set has been used within studies of climate change (trends and accelerations in sea level during the 19th and 20th centuries), oceanography (signals of variations in the overturning circulation), geology (spatially-dependent vertical land movement signal of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment), and even glaciology (the search for fingerprints of Greenland melting). North Atlantic coastlines also contain a large number of salt-marsh locations which can be inspected to provide data for the relatively new technique of deriving information on sea level change from marsh profiles. In principle, the marsh data can be used to provide time series spanning several hundred years, extending backwards the data of the late-18th through to 21st centuries available from tide gauges. The Sea Level 500 project is a collaboration of NOCL and Plymouth, Durham and Liverpool Universities. It has the main objectives of (1) extending the salt-marsh data base; (2) validating the salt-marsh data as far as possible using tide gauge data and numerical model information; (3) learning more of the time and space scales of sea level change around the North Atlantic; and (4) understanding more of how the steric and wind-driven sea level changes of the ocean interior differ from those seen at the coast in the instrumental and marsh records. The latter objective is currently being addressed using data sets obtained from long (half century) runs of the MICOM and MIT models combined with hydrographic data base information. This presentation will provide a status report on what has been learned in the project so far and on future plans for research. In particular, it will examine the apparent differences between the sea level record of the North Atlantic and the global record. Jianjun YIN Regional Sea Level Rise Projections on the Northeast Coast of the United States Yin, Griffies, Schlesinger and Stouffer In the current climate, the dynamic sea level along the east coast of the US is very low because of the low basin-mean sea level in the North Atlantic compared to the North Pacific, and the strong sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. Projections from a set of climate models show a robust dynamic sea level rise on the northeast coast of the US during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the magnitude is about 20 cm under the medium greenhouse-gas emission scenario, which is comparable to expected global ocean thermal expansion. Detailed analysis indicates that this dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by the projected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and is superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. The densely populated northeastern US is among the most vulnerable regions to future sea level rise.     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I/@@I-LpUNESCO/IOC, Paris ``YJag%4h`!"RC;%4!TT e I/@@" -LP CTXe  I/@@e -LP 7!CTT  I/@@ -LP-,T I/@@ -Ll9 February 2011iC!Q;J;JD;C!CCCCTTI/@@-LP G Rp@Times New RomanGz Times ew Roman j 0Ln0(dv% TH/@@ L`Abstracts N;- .;3 .TTH/@@LP('TH}/@@Lt alphabetical ordera:!;@:;3! 4;!:.;3.T}H /@@}L| according to presenter);43;-; A; ;:.3.4A 4.'TT H. /@@ LP : Rp@Times New Roman%0@jF%0@j@jQ{G0@@000NN^wwwrwN Gz Times ew Roman0Ln0dv% To| 6/@@o!L|Krishna Mirle ACHUTARAON-'772^,,HHNHBHHHNTT}  6/@@} !LP 6 T:?/@@:*DLTesting the skill of (CMIP3) models in simulating observed Northern C-'!72!7,'71!!H^'=2!R27-'7&R72!7227'--1-7H2-!7,-7TT?/@@*LP K % T]A@ /@@]LlIndian Ocean sea'7737N,-27&-2TTA Aa /@@A LP-!Tlb A# /@@b LXlevel-1-T|$ A /@@$ L\ changes-7272-'Rp@Times New Roman@0P:P g 4-9R|Z0P:P:{G0@@000Xa|,HJS|Gz Times ew Roman0Ln0dv% TT C /@@ LP - Rp@Times New RomanGz Times ew Roman j 0Ln0(dv% TT  /@@s LP 4 TT ) P /@@ 9 LP 4 % Tl t X /@@C LXRory H2-2Txu i X /@@u C L\BINGHAMC'HNNH_TTj X /@@j C LP 5 T^ a /@@^L CLThe impact of interannual ocean density variations on regional and C7-R72-!2!7!--277722,-277-7'!122-2 27'27--2272277TT a /@@L LP J TDc j /@@ )Lglobal mean sea level as revealed by Argo2272R-27'-1-1-2&--1-2-772G-22TTk c /@@k LP 5 % T:  /@@ LxRory Bingham, Newcast=2',=2222HC,C,2'T: y /@@ Lple University, UK,H2,,'',HCTTt : &" WMFC $$F /@@t LP 5 % T@/@@kSLAn analysis of the relationship between ocean density variations and fluctuations iH21,2,0''12!12,1!,,22'2212,H,,212,,,222,2'012,!,22'1,221!2,2,22'1TX/@@kLPn 2 TP/@@VLregional and global mean sea level (GMSL) from 2004 to 2009 is presented. It is shown !-122,,22 122,N,-2',,,2,!HY9<!!!3N222222222'2!,',2,2 ''22H3 T\h/@@QXLthat although El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual fluctuations in 2,,22212=H228122,!2H',,22!=H8H!22N2,,'2,!,222,!2,2,22'1 T,j/@@PLthe density field and regional sea level, the ocean's response is such that ENSO2,2,2'0!,2,22!-122,',,,2,2,3,,,3'!,'222',''2,22,>H8HTj/@@ Ld has little 2,', TDN/@@7TLinfluence on GMSL. Comparing the observational data with results from two numerical 2!2,2,,!23!HY9<!C3N2,!22!2,!22(,!2,23,!2,-!H2!!,'2'!"!2O!H2!22N,!-, TXP/@@WLmodels suggests a problem with the way numerical models represent the ocean's response N22,''221,''-2!22-NH22,H.022N,!--N22,'!,2!,(,22,2-,,3'",'222'- T4/@@ILto ENSO that leads to too strong a relationship between ENSO activity and20=H8H02,0,,2'02/220'!2210,0!,,22'2202,H,,20=H8H0,,2/1,22Tp4/@@LX GMSL 0HY:< T6/@@_L variability. Analysis of the observed density field at depth reveals correlated variability in 2,!,20H3,0''2!2,22',!2,23,2'0!,3,2,22!,2-,',2"!,,,22,!,203 TX/@@WLthe frontal zones of three ocean basins. These changes appear related to the timing of 2,'!!22,'-22,('2!'2"-,'2-,,2'3,'2''=2,'-'-2,22,'',23,-!'",,,2'3'2,'N21'3" T/@@vDLfluctuations in global mean sea level. The mechanism by which this m!2,2,22'*2+122,*O,,2*'-,*,3,*=2-*N,-2,2'N*30+H2,2*2'+NT/@@vLlight happen is 12*2,23,2*( Td/@@YLuncertain, although the timing of the changes in gyre circulation suggests that, through 22,,!,2%,22213$2,$N21$2!$3,$,3,31,($2%30",$,!,2,22$'321,'($2,$2!2313 TXs/@@\WLatmospheric teleconnections, an indirect link may exist between changes in global mean ,N2'22,!, ,,,223,,22' ,2 22!,, 22 N-1 ,3' 2,H,,2 ,2,31,' 2 122, N,,3 Tu /@@5Lsea level and ENSO activity exceeding some threshold.',,,2,,22=H8H,,30,3,,,231'2N,2",'222TT u /@@ LP(&FWMFC$$F - % 666666666666666666666666666666666666 6 66 6  6 66 6  6 66 6  6 66 6  6 66 6 66666666666666666666  ^`."System-@Cambria-  2 ^^ _ ,^^',+  2  +1_ 2  + _ ,+ ''@Times New Roman- P2 .^^WCRP/IOC Workshop on Regional Sea Level Change        2 ^^ _ &2 ^^UNESCO/IOC, Paris     2 ^^_ 2 ^^ 7 2 ^^-_"2 ^^9 February 2011   2 y^^ _ @Times New Roman-2  ^^Abstracts   2 ^^(_(2 ^^ alphabetical order     /2 o^^ according to presenter)         2 1^^ _ @Times New Roman-.2 5B^^Krishna Mirle ACHUTARAO)   2 5^^ _ q2 bD^^Testing the skill of (CMIP3) models in simulating observed Northern                 2 b^^ _ -#2 u?^^Indian Ocean sea     2 u^^-_2 u^^level  2 u^^ changes @Times New Roman- 2 u^^ _@Times New Roman- 2 ^^ _ 2 ^^ _ -2 p^^Rory g  2 ^^BINGHAMs    2 ^^ _ p2 C^^The impact of interannual ocean density variations on regional and               2 ^^ _ I2 ))^^global mean sea level as revealed by Argo         2 )D^^ _ -+2 M^^Rory Bingham, NewcastA      %2 M"^^le University, UKc  2 M^^ _ -2 qS^^An analysis of the relationship between ocean density variations and fluctuations i                2 q^^n 2 V^^regional and global mean sea level (GMSL) from 2004 to 2009 is presented. It is shown                 2 X^^that although El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual fluctuations in                 2 P^^the density field and regional sea level, the ocean's response is such that ENSO            2  ^^ has little 2 T^^influence on GMSL. Comparing the observational data with results from two numerical                 2 W^^models suggests a problem with the way numerical models represent the ocean's response                 y2 I^^to ENSO that leads to too strong a relationship between ENSO activity anda           2 ^^ GMSL   2 _^^variability. Analysis of the observed density field at depth reveals correlated variability in          2 W^^the frontal zones of three ocean basins. These changes appear related to the timing of            q2 D^^fluctuations in global mean sea level. The mechanism by which this m                "2 {^^ight happen is    2 4Y^^uncertain, although the timing of the changes in gyre circulation suggests that, through t            2 GW^^atmospheric teleconnections, an indirect link may exist between changes in global mean                 [2 [5^^sea level and ENSO activity exceeding some threshold.        2 [^^ _-^^^^^^^^^^]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[՜.+,0 hp   UCSD/SIO{' Program Title  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345689:;<=>CRoot Entry F DEData 1TableֱWordDocument4DSummaryInformation(eDocumentSummaryInformation87CompObjq  FMicrosoft Office Word Document MSWordDocWord.Document.89q