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k : Report of the 8th ICG/IOTWS Meeting in Melbourne, Australia, 3-6 May 2011 and follow up activities
Dr. Sam Hettiarachchi
Chair, Working Group 1 on Risk Assessment and Reduction
ICG/IOTWS /IOC/UNESCO
10/11/2012
_______________________________________________________________________
Introduction
Dr.Sam Hettiarachchi (the writer) attended the 8th ICG/IOTWS Meeting in Melbourne.
This report provides a summary of the said meeting for the members of Working Group 1 on Risk Assessment (WG 1 / RA WG) and identifies the activity profile of the working group. The said activity profile covers activities at international, regional and national level. Jane Sexton of Geoscience Australia, member of the WG 1 was also present.
2.0 Joint Inter Sessional Meeting- 2th May 2011
On 2nd May Working Group on Risk assessment and Reduction (WG 1) and Working Group on Awareness and Response (WG 3) of ICG/IOTWS conducted a joint Inter-Sessional Working Group Meeting.
At the Joint Working Group meeting the writer explained the activities of the Working Group and the future activity profile and focused on the need for the two working groups to work together for the benefit of the stakeholders. The writer explained the very positive outcomes arising from collaboration, referring in particular to the joint workshops conducted in Sri Lanka (June 2010) and Indonesia (Nov 2010). The writer also focused on the need to incorporate overlapping issues of the two working groups in the revised edition of the Tsunami Risk Assessment Guideline.
The writer contributed to the discussions of the proposed regional SOP training. The Working Group on Awareness and Response together with BMKG will lead the discussions on the planning and content of the regional SOP training. The writer identified the importance of risks and uncertainty associated with early warning and the need to accommodate these issues in SOPs pertaining to early warning.
It is recognised that SOPs can be developed for almost all the activities associated with the early warning and dissemination process commencing from the hazard detection through evacuation to withdrawal of the warning. The SOPs for hazard detection and scientific warning are closely associated with the warning system as implemented by the Regional Service Providers. This component has a strong scientific basis. The regional service providers will provide the warning in a predetermined agreed format. The review of that warning, further analysis to obtain more country specific predictions on inundation and its dissemination to the people is the responsibility of individual countries. Hence it is important to identify the respective components for which SOP procedures are required and promote their development at national level.
With the establishment of the IOTWS it is necessary to focus on risk assessment within a tsunami forecasting and early warning framework. It is possible to establishwithinsuch a framework a capability that serves, real time operational needs,hazard /risk assessment needs and research/ development opportunities through the use of a standard tsunami forecast system that includes tsunami characterization, measurements and forecast models.
The inclusion of tsunami risk assessment in the training for SOPs (and vice versa), focusing on how risk assessment can improve tsunami EWS, preparedness and response is considered important.
The SOP Training Programme was successfully held from 19-23 September in Jakarta and information is available from the IOTWS Secretariat.
3.0 Main Sessions of the 8th ICG/IOTWS
On 4th May the writer addressed the session to present the work done by the Working Group.
3.1 Reporting on Training Workshops in 2010-2011
The writer informed the members on the application and use of the Risk Assessment Guideline and the Seminar/Training Workshop conducted in Sri Lanka and Indonesia in June and November 2010 respectively.
In the case of Sri Lanka it was the application of the Guideline in its present form and representatives from all important Sri Lankan agencies were present. There were participants from Indonesia and Kenya. The workshop was also modelled on the concept of integrating Coastal Mapping, Modelling and Risk Assessment and Management (CoMMRA). This concept was jointly promoted by the RA Working Group, IO COAST Map Project. With respect to Risk Management both Working Groups 1 and 3 contributed to the sessions.
In the case of Indonesia the Workshop concentrated on the development of country specific guidelines based on the Risk Assessment Guideline. The RA Working Group promotes the development of country specific guidelines, particularly in challenging seismic conditions such as in Indonesia and will extend its fullest cooperation.
The writer informed the ICG/IOTWS that the integrated approach of Mapping, Modelling, Risk Assessment and Management is unique in the context that for a given country, it will harness the full potential of persons who have received training from three projects implemented by UNESCO/IOC, namely, IO COAST MAP, Modelling by former WG 4 of ICG/IOTWS and Risk Assessment by Risk Assessment Working Group of ICG/IOTWS and UNDP.
3.2 Tsunami Risk Assessment Case Studies
The writer reported the progress of Risk Assessment Case Studies in Indian Ocean States and the proposed facilitation to conduct four to five Risk Assessment case studies covering the full Indian Ocean basin.
Reporting included the progress of the Risk Assessment Case Study for the Port City of Galle (with support from UNDP APRC) focusing on the approach adopted and outcome and dissemination of case study. The writer is working in collaboration with UNDP, Bangkok in finalizing the report, titled, Risk Assessment and Management for Tsunami Hazard-Case Study of the Port City of Galle.
German Aerospace will provide a case study report based on the work done in Indonesia.
The writer will communicate with the Australian and Indian authorities to seek their assistance in obtaining a documented Case Study.
On behalf of UNESCO/IOC and as Chair of WG on Risk Assessment the writer has extended his fullest cooperation to the Government of Oman on the proposed Risk Assessment Studies in Oman. It would be possible to have a detailed report on macro/micro level studies on risk assessment.
The writer will also communicate with professionals in Risk Assessment and Management from other Tsunami Warning Systems to obtain possible case studies.
3.3 Tsunami Risk Assessment Training Workshops
The writer informed the need for training in Risk Assessment and Reduction in the region and identified the need to seek partners to expand the initiative between UNDP and WG to further enhance training on the lines of the Mapping, Modelling and Risk Assessment - CoMMRA Workshop (August 2009), Regional Workshops (Bangkok, November 2009), Country Workshop (Kandy , Sri Lanka June 2010 and Jakarta, November 2010). The RA Working Group and UNDP have contributed to a series of workshops organized by the Japanese Government, under the leadership of PARI, Japan. This has enabled the RA WG to share experience with Japanese researchers and to undertake collaborative research.
The writer informed that Course Material developed for the 9 day Seminar and Workshop held in Bangkok in August 2009 was successfully used together with country specific presentations at the Kandy, Sri Lanka Workshop in June 2010. However the latter was held over 4 days with participants working until late in the night. The RA Working Group is in a position to assist any country/countries to conduct Training in Risk Assessment and Management.
The writer also referred to two models for Workshop organisation adopted by the University of Geneva and EPFL Lausanne and the advice received from Professor Edi Kissling of ETH, Zurich (He is also the Head of the Swiss Geophysical Commission). The writer emphasized the need to develop a sustainable mechanism for training in Coastal Hazards, Risk Assessment and Management in the region.
The writer identified that Risk Assessment and Training Programmes should be an effective path of Continuing Professional Development for professionals engaged in Risk Assessment and Management and Disaster Preparedness. In this respect the development of a Risk Academy with the assistance of regional and external agencies seemed appropriate.
In the context of the above the writer made the following recommendation on training.
Considering the success of the Regional Training Programme on Tsunami Risk Assessment in Bangkok in November 2009 and the National Training Programmes of June 2010 in Sri Lanka and of November 2010 in Indonesia, the RA Working Group has identified the need to conduct another Regional Training Programme on Tsunami Risk Assessment and Management for Indian Ocean States within the framework of integrated Coastal Area Mangement. The proposed training programme will also accommodate the lessons learnt from recent disaster events in Chile. Samoa, Indonesia and Japan.
3.4 Revision of Tsunami Risk Assessment Guideline
The writer informed that there is a strong need to revise and expand the Tsunami Risk Assessment Guideline to consider important issues which have not been adequately addressed in the first edition, new developments and also incorporate the lessons leant from recent tsunamis. This will include,
Marine related hazards -Impacts on marine infrastructure and focus on tsunamis that generate ocean currents and rips, not necessarily heavy inundation
Hazard Mitigation in Risk Management - Physical mitigation measures for hazard mitigation incorporating artificial and natural methods within a framework of integrated coastal area management.
Risk related to Early Warning Systems Risks and uncertainties related to warning arising from the formal establishment of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System and the operation of Regional Service Providers
The idea of having a separate guideline for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation was considered at one stage. However it seems appropriate to include it under Risk Management along with Vulnerability Reduction and Enhancing Preparedness and Capacity.
The writer has had discussions with Dr Russell Arthurton who was the editor of the Risk Assessment Guideline produced by the RA Working Group. Based on his previous experience he has prepared a document Reducing and Managing the Risk of Tsunamis for ICG/NEAMTWS. The writer believes that the approach adopted by Dr. Arthurton is noteworthy in that Early Warning, Risk Management and Preparedness have been integrated into one document.
With the establishment of the IOTWS it is necessary to focus on risk assessment within a tsunami forecasting and early warning framework. It is possible to establishwithinsuch a framework a capability that serves, real time operational needs,hazard /risk assessment needs and research/ development opportunities through the use of a standard tsunami forecast system that includes tsunami characterization, measurements and forecast models. The writer has been working on this concept together with Dr Eddie Bernard of NOAA.
In the context of the above the writer made the following recommendation for the revision of the guideline.
In their revised form, the Guidelines on Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation for the Indian Ocean region will focus on the collaborative efforts of the science/engineering and civil protection/coastal management communities, within the framework of Integrated Coastal Area Management. Hazard and vulnerability assessments will inform disaster managers and land-use planners on potential coastal inundation parameters (including the likelihood of specific credible scenarios) to assist them in establishing sustainable risk mitigation approaches. Attention will also be focused on marine infrastructure and impacts from waves and currents. Preparedness for and emergency response to a tsunami within the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS), and the strategic use ofcoastal space that is subject to potential marine drawdown and inundation (including engineering solutions) will be key topics.
A sum of US$ 15000 is requested and it is expected that it could be even achieved at a slightly lower cost.
The writer was a contributing author to an important document titled Mitigation of Tsunami Disasters in Ports, PIANC Report 112-2010, formally released this year. Where Codes of Practice for design, construction and maintenance are absent these PIANC guidelines are widely used as the code equivalent. The guideline has covered a considerable component on marine hazards in the context of disasters in ports. This document will be made available to ICG/IOTWS members.
3.5 The progress of investigating the Makran Tsunami Hazard Source, coordinated ICG/IOTWS Secretariat and the WG
The ICG/IOTWS Secretariat and the WG will continue activities on investigating the Makran Tsunami Hazard Source which commenced in 2008. The RA Working Group is thankful to Dr.Jane Cunneen and Velly Asvaliantana for coordinating activities.
The writer also described briefly the proposed Risk Assessment activities to be undertaken by the Government of Oman and his offer to extend the fullest cooperation of the Working Group in implementing this important task.
3.5) Promotion of WG and related activities and Dissemination of Information
The writer has maintained collaborative links with leading institutions involved with Risk Assessment and made presentations on the activities of the RA Working Group, Risk Assessment, Case Studies on Tsunami Risk Assessment and Hazard Mitigation at a number of events. The said interactions and presentations have generated further interest and have strengthened collaboration. Some of the important links established are as follows.
1) UNU Bonn/ UNEP Geneva Contributing to the UNEP Geneva /UNU (Bonn ) initiatives of investigating the role of Coastal Ecosystems for Livelihood and Hazard Mitigation. The writer will provide a chapter to a book on the subject.
2) PARI Japan Following the 7th Int. Workshop on Coastal Disaster Prevention organized by Government institutes in Japan, PARI Japan has expressed willingness to test the performance of coastal vegetation in their large flume. It is the largest facility available for simulation of tsunami waves. In view of the great Japanese Tsunami work has to be rescheduled.
3) IOTMS (Indian Ocean Tsunami Modelling) Symposium Following the IOTMS in Perth in October 2010, the writer has established links with several researchers who are actively undertaking risk assessment studies and will collaborate with them to obtain case studies for sharing of knowledge.
4) Swiss RE Zurich Conducted discussions and established links with Swiss RE, Zurich, a global leader in the field of insurance, to obtain their assistance on insurance and reinsurance aspects relating to disasters.
5) Global Paltform Geneva, May 2011 Following the meeting in Seattle in December 2010 of the Inter-ICG Task Team on Disaster Management and Preparedness, the writer was requested to initiate activities to obtain a slot to make a presentation at the UNISDR-Global Platform in Geneva in May 2011. In view of the very heavy demand UNESCO/IOC shred an hour long event with three other UN agencies. WMO and UNESCO/IOC provided the leadership in organizing the event.
The event was very successful and the IOTWS had the opportunity to highlight important milestones during presentations and discussions. The Abstract prepared for the event and Summary of the Proceedings of the same are given in Annexes 1a and 1 b.
4.0 Concluding Remarks
The WG has created a Platform on Tsunami Risk Assessment where professionals in the region and elsewhere could contribute in a conducive environment. It is this environment which led to the development of important documents on Tsunami Risk Assessment within a multi hazard framework. The RA Working Group has made a significant contribution in enhancing the Risk Assessment Capability of Indian Ocean States and in this respect provided training to its members.
It is important to recognize that Tsunami and Coastal Hazard Risk Assessment Studies are undertaken by a large stakeholder base outside the UNESCO/IOC/IOTWS Focal Points. It is necessary to develop a mechanism to work in collaboration with them thereby sharing experiences and above all making use of the knowledge base of the IOTWS. The concept of Platform seems very relevant in moving forward.
Annexe 1 a- Abstract for the Side Event at the Global Platform
Title: Saving of Lives and ImprovedCoastal Risk Management through regional cooperation in ocean and marine related early warning systems in Asia
Abstract:
Coastal regions are recurrently affected by disasters induced from natural hazards. Among the most devastating hazards are tropical cyclones, storm surges, tsunamis, and coastal flooding. Thus, tackling effective disaster risk management in the coastal regions requires a multi-hazard approach. Asia has been disproportionately affected by these phenomena, experiencing massive devastation which set back socio-economic development of the countries and coastal communities by years if not decades. However, over the last decades significant benefits have been realized by saving of lives and livelihoods based on significant cooperation engaging governments, regional centers and agencies, NGOs, private sector and the academic community in this region in areas of EWS and risk management related totropical cyclone, storm surges and tsunami. This session explores and presents, lessons learned and benefits realized through effective coordination and cooperationin early warning systems with multi-hazard approach and development and promotion of effective risk management solutions through close cooperation across the various actors. Issues related to sustainability of these systems and importance of educationand advocating the ISDR campaign on safer cities, specifically in the coastal regions, 'Make my coastal city and community safe and resilient, will be discussed.
Contact Information of the Agency Focal Points:
WMO Focal Point:
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel: +41.22.730.8006
Email: HYPERLINK "mailto:mgolnaraghi@wmo.int" mgolnaraghi@wmo.int
UNESCO-IOC Focal Points:
Irina Rafliana
Chair UNECO/IOC/Inter ICG Task Team on Disaster Management and Preparedness
HYPERLINK "mailto:Irina_rafliana@hotmail.com" Irina_rafliana@hotmail.com
Dr.Sam Hettiarachchi
Chair Working Group on Risk assessment UNESCO/IOC/ICG/IOTWS
HYPERLINK "mailto:sampens1955@hotmail.com" sampens1955@hotmail.com
HYPERLINK "mailto:sslh@civil.mrt.ac.lk" sslh@civil.mrt.ac.lk
UN-ESCAP Focal Point:
Dr. Yuichi Ono
Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Section (DRR)
Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division (IDD)
UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP)
United Nations Building
Rajadamnern Nok Avenue
Bangkok 10200, Thailand
Tel: (+66 2) 288 1332
Fax: (+66 2) 288 1085
Email: HYPERLINK "mailto:onoy@un.org" onoy@un.org
IG-WRDRR Focal Point:
Dr. Yukio Tamura
HYPERLINK "mailto:yukio@arch.t-kougei.ac.jp" yukio@arch.t-kougei.ac.jp
Annexe 1 b- Report on the side event at the Global Platform
Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2011
8-13 May Geneva
Side Event: Saving of Lives and Improved Coastal Risk Management through Regional Cooperation in Ocean and Marine Related Early Warning Systems in Asia
Tuesday 10 May, 13.15 14.15, Room 13
Organized by: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Economic and Social Commission of Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC), International Group on Wind-Related Disaster Risk Reduction (IG-WRDRR)
Session Organization:
Dr Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction , WMO.
Dr.Sam Hettiarachchi, Chair of Risk Assessment, UNESCO/IOC/ICG/IOTWS
Report of the event
Dr Maryam Golnaraghi,WMO
N of participants 65 at session
1)Introduction
Coastal regions are repeatedly affected by disasters induced by natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, tsunamis and coastal flooding. Thus tackling effective disaster risk management in the coastal regions requires a multi-hazard approach. Asia has been disproportionately affected by these phenomena, experiencing massive devastation which sets back the socio economic development of countries and coastal communities by years if not decades. Over the last few decades, a significant number of lives and livelihoods were saved through cooperation between governments, regional centres and agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) private sector and the academic community in this region, particularly in the case of tropical cyclones, storm surges and tsunamis. This side event will demonstrate lessons learned and benefits realized through effective coordination and cooperation in early warning systems with a multi hazard approaches, promotion of effective risk management solutions and education.
2) Brief outline of key issues and challenges addressed in the event
The issues addressed were:
Components of effective EWS and institutional coordination at national to regional levels, multi-stakeholder, multi-level, multi-hazard, multi-agency.
What are challenges with sustainability of EWS through linkage to related national and local legislation and policies defining roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, and budgeting? How can bi-lateral and multi-lateral cooperation projects consider the longer term development and sustainability issues of EWS? Who decides? Can you demonstrate how EWS are a critical component of effective disaster risk reduction in your country?
What are some of the key lessons learned from effective EWS and national and regional cooperation related to marine and ocean related hazards (tropical cyclone and storm surges, tsunamis, etc.) in the region?
What are other components of effective coastal zone management linked to reduction of risks associated with ocean and marine related hazards? How can communities build better resilience? What are the key elements? What is the role of public and private sectors? How about the general public?
What are some of the opportunities and challenges for leveraging capacities and resources through better integration of costal zone management, EWS and resilience building projects, across local national - regional supported through bilateral and multilateral projects nationally and regionally?
Importance and benefits of education at various levels and targeted at different stakeholders and awareness campaigns?
3) Key messages, outcomes, recommendations
Development of EWS is a development issue, requiring strong political will and long-term institutional, coordination and capacity development commitment, and should be considered within the high priority development agenda of the countries and the region.
Effective EWS must be built on
Effective multi-hazard Early warning systems (EWS) must be developed with consideration for their sustainability linked with national policies, legislation, planning and budgeting processes require strong multi-stakeholder institutional coordination and cooperation across various ministries and agencies from national to local levels
National EWS and Disaster Risk Reduction initiatives must be supported with strong regional cooperation for monitoring, detecting and forecasting of large scale hazards such as hurricanes and tsunamis as no single country can build alone all the required capabilities. While significant regional cooperation, and regional operational capacities have been developed for tropical cyclones and tsunamis, there remain a number of areas that require further cooperation and investigation, such as sources of tsunamis, further technical development for forecasting of storm surges, mapping of coastal bathymetries and correlation of inter-connected hazards such as tropical cyclones and related sever winds, storm surges, coastal flooding, tornados, land and mud slides.
Early warning systems are a component of a comprehensive risk reduction strategy and must be complemented with other risk reduction initiatives in the coastal zones, such as zoning, and strengthening of community resilience, of which an important aspect would be well designed infrastructure and buildings. Building community resilience must be accompanied by educational and training programmes at all levels targeting the policy-makers, operational agencies, local government and the public in at-risk communities, particularly through schools and special programmes for children
4) Conclusions by the Chair of the event
Advancements in monitoring of a number of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards combined with political will and development of emergency preparedness capacities in a number of hi-risk countries had led to development of effective early warning systems, with clearly demonstrated benefits in saving lives. Development of EWS must be considered with a multi-hazard approach, and sustainability of the systems over time, thus must be part of the comprehensive national disaster risk reduction programmes supported through effective policy, legal framework, resources and institutional coordination at national to local levels. Education of the communities and general public is a critical factors, where many countries such as Bangladesh, Cuba, and Pakistan have been working on engaging the public and volunteers as part of the system for dissemination of warning from national authorities to the local communities and support for emergency preparedness on the ground. While significant progress has been made in the technical and operational aspect of forecasting and warnings, there is need for further investments in understanding the sources of the hazards, improving the forecasting and lead-time and generating warning information that incorporated both hazard and risk knowledge that is understandable by authorities and the public. Developments of effective standard operating procedures among agencies at national to local level and carrying out drills to improve the system are critical.
5) Presentations, Background Documents
Presentations:
Key issues in ocean and marine related Early Warning Systems in Asia, B. Y. Lee, Invited expert, Hong Kong Observatory
Saving of Lives and Improved Coastal Risk Management through Regional Cooperation in Ocean and Marine Related Early Warning Systems in Asia, Yukio Tamura, Chairman, International Group for Wind-Related Disaster Risk Reduction
Great East Japan Earthquake, Atsushi Koresawa, Asian Disaster Reduction Center
Key lessons learned from Tsunami EWS development in the region, Amir Mohyuddin, National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan.
Background Documents:
Reference: Maryam Golnaraghi, Douris J, and Baubion, C, 'Good practices in multi-hazard early warning systems' Risk Returns, Tudor Rose Publications, pp. 95-97
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! d L ' 3 P 2 T T y Z @E@> 0 L ' 3 P ) C % % % T T | \ @E@ 0 L ' 3 P ; T | \ @E@ 0 L ' 3 ` a n d i d e n t Y d d ; 8 c Y d 8 T H | ," \ @E@ 0 * L ' 3 i f i e s t h e a c t i v i t y p r o f i l e o f t h e w o r k i n g 8 B 8 Y N ; 8 c Y ; Y Y 8 8 c 8 8 d ; d C d A 8 8 Y ; d B ; 8 d Y ; d C d 8 d d 1 T x b ) B @E@ L ' 3 \ g r o u p . d C d d d 2 I T T * b r B @E@* L ' 3 P I T s b 5 B @E@s L ' 3 T h e s a i d a c t i v i t y p r o f i l e z d Y I N Y 8 d I Y Y 7 8 d 8 7 d I d C d B 8 8 Y T T 6 b ~ B @E@6 L ' 3 P I T b ," B @E@ : L ' 3 c o v e r s a c t i v i t i e s a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l , r e g i o n a l a n d n a t i o n a l Y d d Y C N I Y Y 7 8 d 7 8 7 Y N I Y 8 I 8 d 7 Y C d X 8 8 d d X 8 2 I C Y d 8 c d Y 8 I Y d d I d Y 8 7 d d X 7 1 T p H ( @E@ L ' 3 X l e v e l . 8 Y d Y 8 2 T T H ( @E@ L ' 3 P 1 T H ( @E@ H L ' 3 J a n e S e x t o n o f G e o s c i e n c e A u s t r a l i a , m e m b e r o f t h e W G 1 w a s a l s o p r e s e n t N Y d Y 2 n Y d 8 d d 2 d B 2 Y d N Y 8 Y d X Y 2 d N 8 C X 8 8 Y 2 2 Z d Y C 2 d B 2 8 d Y 2 2 d 2 Y N 2 Y 8 N d 2 d C Y N Y d 8 T T H ( @E@ L ' 3 P . 1 T T H ( @E@ L ' 3 P [ T T . 6 @E@ L ' 3 P [ % % % T T ? @E@ L ' 3 P 2 d T @ @E@@ L ' 3 p . 0 J o i n t I n t e r S 2 d 2 2 2 d d 8 o C 2 M o C Y Y 2 o T ) @E@ L ' 3 l e s s i o n a l M e e t i n g Y N N 8 c o d 8 2 Y Y B 8 o c T T * l @E@* L ' 3 P - C T T m @E@m L ' 3 P 2 T T @E@ L ' 3 P 2 d % % % T X x @E@ n L ' 3 P t h , J % % % T T y @E@y L ' 3 P 2 T | @E@ L ' 3 \ M a y 2 0 1 1 d d 2 d d d d T X U @E@ L ' 3 P 2 2 T T V @E@V L ' 3 P l % % % T d @E@ L ' 3 T O n 2 d M d % % % T X q @E@ R L ' 3 P n d C C % % % T T S @E@ L ' 3 P M T T @E@T 7 L ' 3 M a y W o r k i n g G r o u p o n R i s k a s s e s s m e n t a n d R e d u c t i o n ( W G Y c N d C d 8 d d M C d d d M d d M 8 M d M Y N N Y N N Y d 8 M Y d d M Y d d X 8 8 d d M C M T -" @E@ L ' 3 l 1 ) a n d W o r k i n g e C M Y d d M d C d 8 e e 2 T \ + @E@ - L ' 3 G r o u p o n A w a r e n e s s a n d R e s p o n s e ( W G 3 ) o f I C G C d d d Y d d Y Y C Y d Y N N X Y d d Y Y N d d d N Y Y C Y d C Z d B Y C T , ! @E@, L ' 3 / I O T W S c o n d u c t e d a j o i n t I n t e r 8 C { o Y Y d d d d Y 8 & " WMFC 3 Y d Y Y Y 8 d 8 c 8 Y B d 8 Y C T T ! ! @E@! L ' 3 P - B T T J @E@ z L ' 3 P S o T K @E@K z L ' 3 e s s i o n a l W o r k i n g G r o u p M e e t i n g Y N N 8 d d Y 8 2 d C d 8 d d 2 C d c d 2 Y Y 7 8 d d T T @E@ z L ' 3 P . 1 T T Q @E@ z L ' 3 P [ % % % T T G @E@ b L ' 3 P l % % % T r @E@ F F L ' 3 A t t h e J o i n t W o r k i n g G r o u p m e e t i n g t h e w r i t e r e x p l a i n e d t h e a c t i v i t i e s 8 F 8 d Y F N d 8 d 7 G d C d 8 d d F C d d d F Y Y 8 8 d d F 8 d Y F C 8 8 X B F Y d d 8 Y 8 d Y d E 7 d Y F Y Y 8 8 c 8 7 8 Y M T T r @E@ F L ' 3 P F T
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L ' 3 h r k i n g g r o u p s C d 8 d d 7 d C c d d N 2 T ^ > @E@ L ' 3 | t o w o r k t o g e t h e r f o r t h e 8 d e d C d e 8 d d Y 8 d Y C e B d C e 7 d Y T T ^ y > @E@ L ' 3 P e T | z ^
> @E@z L ' 3 \ b e n e f i t d Y d Y B 8 8 e T ` ^ > @E@ L ' 3 T o f d B e T l ^ -" > @E@ 0 L ' 3 t h e s t a k e h o l d e r s . T h e w r i t e r e x p l a i n e d t h e v e r y 8 d Y e N 8 Y d Y d d 8 d Y C N 2 e y d Y e C 8 8 Y C e X d d 8 Y 8 d Y d e 8 c Y e d Y C d 2 T T D > $ @E@ , L ' 3 p o s i t i v e o u t c o m e s a r i s i n g f r o m c o l l a b o r a t i o n d d N 8 8 8 c Y d d 8 Y d Y N Y C 8 N 8 d d B C e Z d 8 8 Y d c C Y 7 8 d d T T ? D o $ @E@? L ' 3 P , 1 T T p D $ @E@p L ' 3 P T D $ @E@ L ' 3 ` r e f e r r i n g C Y B Y C C 8 d d T T D = $ @E@ L ' 3 P T > D a $ @E@>
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@E@ % L ' 3 a n d I n d o n e s i a ( N o v 2 0 1 0 ) . T h e w r i t e r Y d d N C d d d d Y N 8 Y N C d d N d d d d C 2 N z d Y N C 8 8 X B 1 T h @E@ = L ' 3 a l s o f o c u s e d o n t h e n e e d t o i n c o r p o r a t e o v e r l a p p i n g i s s u e s o f Y 8 N d = B d Y d N Y c = d d = 8 d Y = d Y Y d = 8 d = 8 d Y d C d d B Y 8 Y = d d Y B 8 Y d c 8 d d = 8 N N d Y N = d A T T S @E@S L ' 3 P = T -" @E@ L ' 3 t h e t w o w o r k i n g g r o u p s i n 8 d Y = 8 d = d C d 8 d d = d C d d c N = 8 d 2 T @E@
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L ' 3 \ T s u n a m i z N d d Y 8 2 T @E@ L ' 3 R i s k A s s e s s m e n t G u i d e l i n e . 9 N d 2 N N Y N N Z d 8 2 d 8 d Y 7 8 d X 2 T T @E@ L ' 3 P [ T T 6 @E@ L ' 3 P [ T T U @E@ u L ' 3 P T z T V w @E@V u C L ' 3 h e w r i t e r c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e p r o p o s e d r e g i o n a l S d Y W C 8 8 X C V Y d d 8 B 8 d d 8 Y c V 8 d W 8 d X W d 8 M Y c N N 8 d d N W d B W 8 c Y W d C d d d N Y c V C Y d 8 d d X 8 W o T x -" @E@x u L ' 3 p O P t r a i n i n g . T h e o W 8 C X 8 d 8 d d 2 V z d Y 2 T x @E@ [ L ' 3 \ W o r k i n g d C d 8 d d T T @E@ [ L ' 3 P z T Z @E@ [ L ' 3 G r o u p o n A w a r e n e s s a n d R e s p o n s e C d d d z d d z Y C Y d Y N N z X d d z Y N d d d N Y T T [ & " WMFC @E@[ [ L ' 3 P z T -" @E@ [ ! L ' 3 t o g e t h e r w i t h B M K G w i l l l e a d t h e 8 d d Y 8 d X C z 8 8 d z z 8 8 8 z 8 Y X d z 8 d X 2 T 4 ," m! @E@ A! Q L ' 3 d i s c u s s i o n s o n t h e p l a n n i n g a n d c o n t e n t o f t h e r e g i o n a l S O P t r a i n i n g . T h e w r i t e r d 8 N Y d N M 8 d d M r d d r 8 d Y r d 8 Y d d 8 d d r Y d d r Y d d 8 Y d 8 r d B r 8 d Y r C Y d 8 d c Y 8 r o o r 8 C Y 8 d 8 d d 2 r z d Y r C 8 8 Y B 1 T T s! S" @E@ '" L ' 3 P i 8 T X s! S" @E@ '" L ' 3 P d e d Y T s! { S" @E@ '" L ' 3 n t i f i e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f r i s k s d 7 8 B 8 Y d B 8 c Y B 8 d d C 8 Y d Y Y B d B B C 8 N d N T T | s! S" @E@| '" L ' 3 P B T s! S" @E@ '"
L ' 3 h a n d u n c e r t a i n Y c d B d d Y Y C 7 Y 8 d T , s! ! S" @E@ '" % L ' 3 t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a r l y w a r n i n g a n d 7 d B Y N N d Y 7 Y 8 Y c B 8 8 d B Y Y B 8 d A Y C d 8 d d B Y d c B T d ! s! ," S" @E@ ! '" L ' 3 T t h e 8 c X 1 T Y" 9# @E@
# L ' 3 t n e e d t o a c c o m m o d a t e d Y Y d 2 8 d 2 Y X Y c d d Y 8 Y 2 T Y" : 9# @E@
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# L ' 3 P [ T T ?# 6 $ @E@ # L ' 3 P [ T %$ % @E@ $ ? L ' 3 I t i s r e c o g n i s e d t h a t S O P s c a n b e d e v e l o p e d f o r a l m o s t a l l t h e C 8 C 7 N C C X Y d d d 7 N Y d C 8 d X 8 C o o N C Y Y d C d Y C c Y d Y 8 d d Y d C B d B C Y 8 d N 8 C Y 8 8 B 7 d Y C T %$ -" % @E@ $ L ' 3 a c t i v i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h Y Y 7 8 d 7 8 8 Y M C Y N N d Y 7 Y 8 Y c B 8 8 c 2 T , % % @E@ % % L ' 3 t h e e a r l y w a r n i n g a n d d i s s e m i n a t i o n p 8 d Y a Y X C 8 d a Y C d 8 d d a Y d c ` d 8 N N Y 8 d Y 8 8 c d a d T T % ," % @E@ % , L ' 3 r o c e s s c o m m e n c i n g f r o m t h e h a z a r d d e t e c t i o n C d Y Y N N ` X e Y d Y 8 d d a B C e a 8 d Y a d Y Y Y C d a d X 8 X Y 8 8 d d 1 T % Z & @E@ &
L ' 3 ` t h r o u g h e v 8 d C d d d d S Y d T [ % -" & @E@[ & I L ' 3 a c u a t i o n t o w i t h d r a w a l o f t h e w a r n i n g . T h e S O P s f o r h a z a r d d e t e c t i o n a n d X Y d Y 8 8 d d R 8 d R 8 8 d d C Y Y 8 R d B S 8 d Y S Y C d 8 d d 2 S z d Y S o o N S B d C S d Y Y Y C d S d Y 7 Y Y 7 8 c d S Y d d 2 T \ & -" ' @E@ ' X L ' 3 s c i e n t i f i c w a r n i n g a r e c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e w a r n i n g s y s t e m a s i m p l e m e n t e d b y t h e N Y 8 Y c 8 8 B 8 Y ; Y C d 8 d d ; Y B Y ; Y 7 d N Y 8 d ; Y N N d X 7 Y 8 Y d ; 8 8 d ; 8 c Y ; Y C d 8 d d ; N d N 8 Y ; Y N ; 9 d 8 Y Y d 8 Y d ; d d ; 8 d Z 2 T X ' ," ( @E@ q( W L ' 3 R e g i o n a l S e r v i c e P r o v i d e r s . T h i s c o m p o n e n t h a s a s t r o n g s c i e n t i f i c b a s i s . T h e r e g i o n a l Y d 8 d d Y 8 J o X C d 8 Y Y J n C d d 8 c Y C N 2 J z d 8 N I Y c d d d Y d 8 J d Y N J Y J N 7 C d d d J M Y 8 Y d 7 8 B 8 Y J d Y M 8 N 2 J z d Y J B Y d 7 d d Y 7 1 T | ( K ) @E@ W) L ' 3 \ s e r v i c e N Y C d 8 X Y 9 T , K ( -" ) @E@L W) P L ' 3 p r o v i d e r s w i l l p r o v i d e t h e w a r n i n g i n a p r e d e t e r m i n e d a g r e e d f o r m a t . T h e r e v i e w d C d c 8 d Y C N 9 7 8 8 9 d B d d 8 d Y 9 8 d Y 9 Y C d 8 d d 9 8 d 9 Y 8 d C Y d Y 7 Y C 8 d Y d 9 Y d C Y Y d 9 B d C Y 8 2 9 z d Y 9 C Y d 8 Y 2 T 4 ) -" i* @E@ =* Q L ' 3 o f t h a t w a r n i n g , f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s t o o b t a i n m o r e c o u n t r y s p e c i f i c p r e d i c t i o n s o n d B 8 d Y 8 Y C d 8 d d 2 B d C 8 c Y C Y d X 8 d N 8 M 8 d d d 8 X 8 c d C Y Y d d d 8 C d N d X Y 8 B 7 Y d C Y d 7 Y 8 8 c d N d c 2 T o* ^" O+ @E@ #+ ^ L ' 3 i n u n d a t i o n a n d i t s d i s s e m i n a t i o n t o t h e p e o p l e i s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s . 8 d d d d Y 7 8 d d 6 X d d 6 8 8 N 6 c 8 N M X 8 d Y 8 8 d d 6 8 d 5 8 d Y 6 d Y d c 8 Y 6 7 M 6 8 d Y 5 C Y N d d d M 7 d 8 8 7 8 d 6 d B 6 8 d d 7 d 8 d d & WMFC Y 8 5 Y d d d 7 C 8 Y N 2 1 T T U+ k 5, @E@ , L ' 3 P H T ` l U+ 5, @E@l , L ' 3 T e n c Y d Y T U+ 5, @E@ , L ' 3 e i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o i d e n t i f y Y 3 7 8 3 7 N 3 7 d d C 8 Y d 8 2 8 d 2 8 d Y d 7 8 B d 3 T | U+ 5, @E@ , L ' 3 \ t h e r e s p 8 d Y 2 C Y N d T U+ 5 5, @E@ , L ' 3 e c t i v e c o m p o n e n t s f o r w h i c h S O P Y X 8 8 d X 3 X e d d d Y d 8 N 3 B d C 3 d 8 Y d 3 o o T T 6 U+ h 5, @E@6 , L ' 3 P 3 T h U+ 5, @E@i ,
L ' 3 ` p r o c e d u r e s d C d Y Y d d B X N T T U+ ! 5, @E@ , L ' 3 P 3 T d ! U+ ," 5, @E@ ! , L ' 3 T a r e Y B X 1 T ;, - @E@ , : L ' 3 r e q u i r e d a n d p r o m o t e t h e i r d e v e l o p m e n t a t n a t i o n a l l e v e l . C Y d d 8 B Y d 2 Y d c 2 d C d d 8 Y 2 8 d Y 8 C 2 d Y d X 8 d d Y d 8 2 Y 8 2 c Y 8 8 d c Y 8 2 8 Y c Y 8 2 1 T T ;, _ - @E@ , L ' 3 P [ T T !- 6 . @E@ - L ' 3 P [ % % 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6 6 3 6 ' 3 6 ' 6
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