ࡱ> #% !" 0bjbj ;~=^^  8! "d Δt"t""""#$L$()++++++$ԗO9 )##))O ""4,,,) " "),)),,{E"N S*"~F0Δ~~,*,EE, Y%%,&6'w%%%OO+%%%Δ)))),%%%%%%%%%^ ~:  WMO Shanghai Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-CIFDP-S) Proposal February 2017, Shanghai Table of Contents Introduction Geographic background Project objectives Project organization Approach to project implementation Dissemination of products Benefit assessment Capacity building and training plan Implementation plan Introduction The general objective of the WMO CIFDP is to demonstrate cooperative work for building improved operational forecast and warning capability for coastal inundation, combining extreme waves, surges and hydrological flooding events. All of these weather and weather-related events have a tremendous impact on heavily populated coastal zones of Shanghai. Therefore, considering the legal responsibilities and proven capabilities, Shanghai Meteorological Service (SMS) is proposing for the implementation CIFDP-S as national sub-project. Without doubt, the WMO Demonstration Projects, Shanghai MHEWS (Multi-Hazard Early Warning System) and Shanghai TLFDP (Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project) have greatly enhanced the SMSs ability to provide various high impact weather services such as landfall typhoons, strong convections etc. including information collection and integration, delivery of forecasting and warning, and most importantly, establishment of institutional arrangements for concerted multi-department coordination and collaboration. The systematic integration of meteorological, hydrological, oceanic and geographic information is vitally important for forecasters to make correct forecasting decision, particularly, for coastal inundation. For example, while a typhoon makes landfall, its derived storm surge will combine with heavy rainfall to lead to inundation combining surge water and flash flooding in coastal zones. However, this kind of information is absent or lack in operational forecast as well as in both the Shanghai MHEWS and Shanghai TLFDP Projects. Therefore, the WMO CIFDP-S will become a significant complement to the afore-mentioned two projects. The overall goal of the WMO CIFDP-S is to enhance capabilities of forecasters to deliver timely and accurate inundation forecasts, to obtain a complementary set of coastal monitoring network, to combine various datasets and numerical models, finally to develop the most up-to-date decision support system and products for Shanghai and other China coastal regions. It also aims to demonstrate the performance to other WMO Members, in particular, to developing and least developed countries. Background Shanghai is located in 31N and 121E, neighbouring the East China Sea to the east and Hangzhou Bay to the south, and , the Yangtze River in the north of the city which flows into the East China Sea. Shanghai is also in the central location along Chinas coastline. Except a few hills in the southwest corner, most part of Shanghai is flat and categorized as the alluvial plain of the Yangtze River Delta. The average elevation is about 4m above mean sea level. Scattered with many rivers and lakes, Shanghai area is known to be rich in water resources. Annually there are 2-3 typhoons that either make landfall or have significant impacts on Shanghai. With flat topography, dense population and growing economic activities, storm surge associated with landfall typhoon can severely aggravate cities inundation. Project objectives The WMO CIFDP-S aims to build improved operational forecast and warning capability through institutional cooperative mechanism among various institutions in Shanghai for saving lives and mitigating property loss by hazardous coastal inundation. The WMO-CIFDP-Ss objectives are: 1) to enhance capabilities of forecasters to issue timely and accurate watches, warnings, forecasts and decision supports for coastal inundation, combining extreme waves, surges and river flooding events, 2) to demonstrate performance of the most advanced coastal inundation forecasting techniques available in the world, 3) to assess the WMO-CIFDPs impacts on enhancing the coastal inundation forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits, 4) to promote implementation of the most up-to-date forecast technique for coastal inundation in other areas and Members of WMO affected by coastal inundation, and 5) specifically to enable SMS to provide enhanced coastal inundation forecast service, to enhance the communication and coordination among the relevant departments of the Shanghai Municipal Government, to support the Shanghai Municipal Governemn for its improved decision making in response to occurrences of coastal inundation, and to maintain an effective end-to-end early warning system for the users and communities for their appropriate responses to coastal inundation. Project organization The management of coastal inundation involves the relevant agencies in Meteorology, Hydrology, Oceanography, Emergency Management and Coastal Planning under the umbrella the Shanghai Municipal Government, of which all have well defined terms of reference and established mechanism for efficient cooperation. Shanghai Meteorological Services issues warnings of the typhoons, torrential rain, thunderstorm and strong winds etc. Hydrography Department of Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration monitors the water level in Yangtze River estuary and provides bathymetric data. Shanghai Water Authority & Shanghai Municipal Oceanic Bureau monitors and maps the citys flood, Shanghai Emergency Response Centre initiates and organizes the citys emergency response actions. In the framework of CIFDP, a National Coordination Team (NCT) led by SMS in cooperation with these target stakeholders mentioned above will be formulated to establish national commitment to implementation of the CIFDP-S, with the guidance by the CIFDP Project Steering Group (PSG). Project implementation strategy The project can be implemented by establishment and development of the following components: a database, atmospheric models, a storm surge forecast sub-system, a hydrological forecast sub-system, a decision support sub-system, and a production and dissemination platform. It may be described by schematic representation as follows:  5.1 Database The collection of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic and geographic data is crucial to project implementation. The development of the database includes basic dataset, disaster dataset and forecast errors dataset: The Basic dataset consists of meteorological, hydrological, oceanic information both in history and real-time, through rain gauge, buoy, hydrometric station, tidal station, field camera images etc. ; The Disaster dataset will collect geographic information like submarine topography, sea dike location and slope, sea dike damage and flood events in history, coastal inundation risk mapping etc.; The Forecast errors dataset will collect the margin of errors and fault-tolerant capabilities in coastal inundation forecast; 5.2 Atmospheric Models To resolve winds sufficiently for accurate wave and surge predictions, operational atmospheric models for winds and tropical cyclones respectively are needed. Shanghai Typhoon Institute(STI) NWP working group has designed or developed five numerical prediction systems for short-term weather forecast in the East China region and four typhoon model prediction systems for the western North Pacific typhoons based on IBMs high-performance computers. They combined with a variety of spatial and temporal scales of weather systems characteristics to achieve a refined seamless forecast from nowcasting to medium-range prediction. Products include Shanghai Meteorological Services (SMS) WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh (SMS-WARR), SMS WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System (SMS-WARMS), SMS Ensemble WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System (SMS-EnWARMS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts High-resolution Products, THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Products, Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System_Tropical Cyclone Model (GRAPES_TCM), Shanghai-Tropical-cyclone High-resolution Analysis and Prediction System (SHA-THRAPS). All the products are fundamental and will become available for the inundation forecast, and be further improved during implementation of the CIFDP-S. 5.3 Storm Surge Forecast Sub-system Coastal inundation occurs when storm tide water levels surpass the elevation of sea dikes. The storm tide level is the maximum water level that is reached on the sea dike. It is contributed by the astronomical tidal level, storm surge height, wind setup, wave run-up, and potentially the direct impact of ocean waves. Both a wave model and a storm surge model are therefore essentially required in a coastal inundation forecast system. SMB used Wavewatch III for simulating waves in the deep water and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for shallow water, the surge forecast are based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge sub-system development includes: Nested grids wave model using Wavewatch III and Simulating WAves Nearshore, Integration of storm surge forecasting results from FVCOM model and statistical storm surge model, Wave-surge coupled model experiments, Marine observation data assimilation, Coupled with atmospheric and hydrological models. These models have been widely studied in the research field. However, an early warning system needs these models to become operational. Therefore, further research and development will be required, including forecast verification and reliability analyses. 5.4 Hydrological Forecast Sub-system Except the inundation derived from storm surge, it also contains the heavy rainfall leading to the river flood and inland inundation. The development of the hydrological forecast sub-system includes: To collect the small and medium-sized rivers hydrology information, economic, social and disaster survey information which shall be included into the coastal inundation disaster dataset; To improve existing river flooding risk warning system and put into operational use; To develop river-wave-surge coupled model. 5.5 Decision Support Sub-system The decision support system will be developed as an interactive, software-based information system that is capable of providing user-specific guidance in support of decision making. The system will include dynamic decision models that allow the system itself to make recommendations and guidances. Developing useful decision support system is dependent upon close interaction with the end user, and the technology development of scenario uncertainty quantification. Consistency and persistence of forecast products are also very important for forecasters to make decision with full confidence. Therefore, the WMO CIFDP-s will examine and assess the level of consistency and persistence of forecast products. The consistency level can be defined as difference among forecasts from different initial times, i.e., the smaller it is, the higher the consistency level is; and the persistence can be represented by variation of forecast errors with small (large) variation indicating good (bad) persistence. 5.6 Production and Dissemination Platform An efficient production and dissemination platform for the coastal inundation will be established for forecasters to further refine forecasting by making modification on the gridded model outcomes from storm surge and hydrological sub-systems, and for automatically producing the inundation risk distribution in 3, 6, 24 hours intervals. It will also combine geographical information into the final forecast figures and texts. Dissemination of products In addition to day-to-day verification products, users also need updated performance information of a particular forecast system. Generally, forecast data are valid for a short period of time and then replaced with the next forecast, but performance information requires a relatively long history of forecast data for computing metrics. The WMO CIFDP-S will continually provide forecast performance information, including developing a mechanism for managing data, integrating operational criteria with performance information and distribution of vital performance information whenever needed. An interactive website will be established to provide products of the project to forecasters. End-user products will be distributed by SMSs early-warning information dissemination platform, a key component of MHEWS. This platform includes Issuance & Response Standards; operational procedures; dissemination systems and a management platform. Some important end-users, such as the Flooding Prevention Office of Shanghai, have established a joint-warning and response mechanism with SMS which will maximize the value of end-user products. The dissemination system includes the nine main communication channels used by SMS to distribute various kinds of weather information. These are Telephone, FAX, TV, Radio, Cell Phone, Hotline, Website, Electronic Screen and Tower Lights. Benefit analysis Three primary areas of benefit are anticipated through the CIFDP-S project: Improvements in the existing observation network and skill of the existing forecast products and services provided by the SMS; Development and application of new and/or integrated products and services. CIFDP-S will facilitate new products, services and delivery mechanisms that are targeted to user-specific requirements. In general they may be issued more frequently, with improved spatial and temporal resolution in several formats and for multiple media. New knowledge and understanding obtained through extensive and strengthened interactions and exchanges among participants and users. CIFDP-S training and capacity-building activities will provide opportunities to enhance understanding between SMS forecasters and users (risk, impact, and decision process knowledge), and different categories of users (knowledge concerning relative roles, responsibilities and response capacities). Though difficult to quantify, these indirect benefits are often the most substantive and long-lasting and often lead to considerable innovation. Capacity building and training plan The training and capacity building under CIFDP-S will be arranged at different levels: The PSGs will be expected to provide training to the SMS forecast staffs. The SMS forecasters and related staff will need to provide training to end users in the interpretation and application of the enhanced services and products including probabilistic forecast, and to contribute positively to their operational response to inundation warnings. International Workshops will be organized for participants from WMO Members, in particular, from developing and least developed countries. Guidelines on the provision of coastal inundation forecast services, reflecting the experience gained from the CIFDP-S, will be prepared, published, and distributed to WMO Members by the WMO Secretariat. 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