ࡱ> cmb| 0bjbj““ __'44:::NNN8*N/I^Lbbx""<# HHHHHHH$JMH:4#!@"4#4#HbxfH0004#Rb:xH04#H00XA"$C ɦ6'AHH0/IB1N+1N,$C$CJ1N:nF,4#4#04#4#4#4#4#HH-4#4#4#/I4#4#4#4#1N4#4#4#4#4#4#4#4#4#4X : Restricted distribution ICG/CARIBE EWS-XV/5.1 Paris, 6 April 2021  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (of UNESCO) Fifteenth Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE EWS-XV) Online 27-29 April 2021 Agenda Item 5.1 CARIBE WAVE 2022 Tsunami Exercise Report  Introduction, Summary, Considerations/Challenges Purpose of the Task Team: The Caribe Wave Task Team serves to organize and disseminate the materials relevant to the annual Caribe Wave exercise, provide support for Member States and Territories support in the organization and conduction of the exercise, and gather and analyze the regional results based upon a post-exercise survey. Activities during the intersessional period: Caribe Wave 20 Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Caribe Wave 20 exercise was reduced to a communications test. Despite the pandemic 34 of 48 Member States participated in the Caribe Wave 20 communications test. For details of the exercise and post exercise evaluations, see the Caribe Wave 20 Handbook ( HYPERLINK "https://www.weather.gov/ctwp/caribewave20" https://www.weather.gov/ctwp/caribewave20) and the Caribe Wave 20 Final Reports (Report:  HYPERLINK "http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docID=27764" http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docID=27764; Supplement  HYPERLINK "http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docID=27765" http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docID=27765). Caribe Wave 21 Despite the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, the Caribe Wave 21 exercise was held of March 11, 2021 in commemoration of the ten-year anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Member States were encourage to take national and ICG CARIBE-EWS COVID-19 guidelines into account during the exercise planning and remote/on-line activities were recommended. Despite the pandemic 46 of 48 Member States participated in the Caribe Wave 21 exercise. In addition to the traditional survey to receive feedback on the exercise, this year a virtual hotwash meeting was conducted to permit more direct feedback and exchange of experiences by the TWCs and TWFPs. For details of the exercise and post exercise evaluations, see the Caribe Wave 21 Handbook (https://www.weather.gov/ctwp/caribewave21) and the Caribe Wave 21 Final Reports (See documents in Section 3.8 of the 15th Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions). New Scenario Suggestion Form: To facilitate Member States to suggest possible future Caribe Wave Scenarios a Google from was developed to permit Member States to suggest scenarios for Caribe Wave 22 and future meetings. The form can be accessed at the following link:  HYPERLINK "https://forms.gle/fqPvw4SVU6U97Cmc8" https://forms.gle/fqPvw4SVU6U97Cmc8 Key Considerations: According to recommendations from previous IOC CARIBE-EWS Sessions, it was proposed that the Caribe Wave 22 exercise consist of landslide scenarios to test protocols being developed to respond to such tsunamis. Due to COVID-19 and associated delays, it is suggested that this be moved to the 2023 exercise. Scenarios for the 2022 exercise and the date of the exercise must be decided during the IOC CARIBE-EWS XV Session. The task team suggests the following scenarios for consideration for Caribe Wave 22: A tsunamigenic earthquake along the Muertos Trough Flank Collapse of the Cumbre Viejo Volcano (La Palma, Canary Island) Off shore event near Costa Rica, based off the 1882a plane available in the CATSAM catalog. It is suggested that the Caribe Wave 23 exercise consist of landslide sources to be developed during the next inter-sessional period. Recommendations for ICG/CARIBE EWS Notes the successful conduct of the CARIBE WAVE 20 and CARIBE WAVE 21 exercises with the participation of 98% of the Member States and Territories and almost 400,000 people in total despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Congratulates all the Member States and Territories for promoting, coordinating, participating and providing feedback on the CARIBE WAVE 21 exercise. Appreciates the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program (CTWP) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for their support in generating the handbook and simulated products and overall conduct of the CARIBE WAVE 20 and 22 exercises Further Appreciates the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for their support in generating simulated ShakeMap and PAGER products for the exercises. Further Appreciates the work of the Tsunami Ready Task Team and Tsunami Ready and TsunamiReady Communities for encouraging participation in the CARIBE WAVE Exercise and synergetic activities increasing tsunami awareness in the region. Further Appreciates the University of Southern California and its funding agencies for the making available TsunamiZone.org for registration. Recommends that volcanic eruptions and/or landslides as a source of tsunamis in the Caribbean basin should be considered for future CARIBE WAVE exercises. Notes that PTWC, the Tsunami Service Provider, for the region does not have the ability to run forecasts for these kinds of events and so alternative strategies for notifying public of the dangers must be discussed. Suggests that CARIBE WAVE 22 will consist of 3 scenarios that include A tsunamigenic earthquake along the Muertos Trough, Flank Collapse of the Cumbre Viejo Volcano (La Palma, Canary Island), and an off shore event near Costa Rica, based off the 1882a plane available in the CATSAM catalog; Suggests that the CARIBE WAVE 23 exercise consist of landslide sources to be developed by Member States during the next inter-sessional period. Suggests that the exercise will take place on Thursday March 10, 2022, commencing at 14:00 UTC with one dummy message, and the 1st message for the scenarios shortly after according to PTWC simulated procedures for the corresponding scenarios; Recommends following a similar timetable and benchmarks on CARIBE WAVE 21 and that preparatory webinars follow the same or similar process as used in previous exercises; Further Recommends that an additional webinar be added to the timetable approximately 2 weeks after the exercise as an official hot wash to provide an opportunity for Member States to provide direct feedback to the Task Team and share knowledge gained from the exercise and identify gaps and strengths in the warning system; Further recommends that the registration process remains at  HYPERLINK "http://www.tsunamizone.org" www.tsunamizone.org Recommends CARIBE WAVE 22 Task Team to modify exercise evaluation metrics to reflect level of satisfaction with type and quality of resources available. Decides to establish a CARIBE WAVE 22 Task Team modeled after past Caribe Wave Task Teams. Recommends a timetable for CARIBE WAVE 22 modeled after previous time tables. Further recommends the representatives of the ICG CARIBE EWS in the TOWS Task Team on Disaster Management and Preparedness share the exercise results and best practices and seek global coordination of exercises, including standardization of the questionnaire; Recommendations for the ICG/CARIBE EWS Implementation Plan N/A Task Team Internal Work Plan/Key Proposed Activities The Caribe Wave 22 Task Team will develop the scenarios selected at the ICG CARIBE-EWS Session in April 2021 with local experts. The Caribe Wave 22 Task Team will develop the exercise handbook with the support of the CTWP. The Caribe Wave 22 Task Team proposes the metrics summarized in Table 1 for the 2022 exercise Goals2016 Results2017 Results2018 Results2019 Metrics2019 Results2020 Metrics2020 Results2021 Metrics2021 Results 2022 MetricsTWFP receive the dummy message84%95%100%100%89%100%97%100%97% 100%Participation of Member States of ICG/CARIBE-EWS 100%100%97%100%100%100%92%100%98% 100%Community involvement (including agencies beyond TWFP)73%82%77%95%66%95%38% 95%56% 75%Number of participants332,812679,985643,403+10%793,353+10%4,622+10%275,796 +10%Countries who participate submit exercise questionnaire100%100%91%100%82%100%92%100%95% 100%Members State and territories are satisfied with exercise 82%100%76%100%96% 100% Table 2: Proposed Metric for Caribe Wave 2022 The Caribe Wave 22 Task Team proposes the Timeline summarized in Table 2 for the work related to the Caribe Wave 22 exercise. ACTIONDUE DATECircular Letter Issued by IOC to MSSeptember 2021Handbook Draft Circulated among ICG CARIBE EWS TNC/TWFP and TT CARIBE WAVE 21September 2021Deadline for CommentsOctober 2021Exercise Handbook Available Online November 20211st Webinar CW January 2022 English January 2022 Spanish January 2022 - French2nd Webinar CW February 2022 - English February 2022 - Spanish February 2022 - FrenchCountries Indicate Selected Scenario  February 2022Exercise 10 March 2022Post Exercise Hot Wash Webinar23 March 2022Exercise Evaluation Due25 March 2022Final Draft Caribe Wave 21 Report April 2022 Table 2: Proposed Timeline for the Caribe Wave 2022 Exercise Members Chair of Task Team TBD Chair and Vice Chairs CARIBE EWS Chair of Working Group 1 Chair of Working Group 2 Chair of Working Group 3 Chair of Working Group 4 Programme Officer, Caribbean Tsunami Information Center: Alison Brome Manager of the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program: Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade PTWC: Charles McCreery Cindi Preller Executive Director (Ag), CDEMA: Elizabeth Riley Executive Secretary, CEPREDENAC: Claudia Herrera Melgar Deputy Chief, EMIZ Antilles: Major Roselly Pepin Technical Secretary, UNESCO: Bernardo Aliaga Scientific Expert Earthquake Impact Products, USGS: David Wald Local Experts for each scenario selected      PAGE 6 This document presents the achievements, recommendations and conclusions of the Task Team on the CARIBE WAVE 2022 Tsunami Exercise. The ICG is requested to consider, comment and eventually endorse the recommendations issued by the Task Team.  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