ࡱ> :<9 rbjbj .2PD#u4?????K6-??/???`=җvE0uBRu :  Ocean Forecast Demonstration Projects in IOGOOS and SEAGOOS MOTIVATION; There are forecasting systems ready to go. They can be applied right now to willing members of the IOGOOS and SEAGOOS alliances. This can be done in principal without existing available data ... BUT .... quality/amount of data in = quality of outputs out. Everyone in the Wk Gp acknowledged that. Interest by at least some countries to work closely with eg Bluelink to get the ball rolling. Belief that by showing this project works for at least one or two sub-regions (eg Malaysia) it will foster engagement by others (hopefully to cross-GRA level) and facilitate the provision of existing data sets. AIM: To demonstrate and realise the potential benefits of the current global and regional ocean forecasting capacity to the IOGOOS/SEAGOOS communities. VIA: Giving access to broad scale ocean model data and products to selected partner countries in the GOOS Regional Alliances, to be used as boundary conditions for their regional and local high resolution models. This could be done initially through experiments in a small number of countries, using their existing regional/local data and high resolution modelling capabilities. If this project is successful it will constitute a test case and will work to encourage other countries to participate. The initial global ocean model for the project will be BLUElink, with others to be entrained at a later stage. There is potential for the later involvement of global modelling groups in France, UK, Japan and the USA. This project will demonstrate the advantages of data sharing for each region. There also remains an overall requirement to improve the ocean modelling and forecasting science and demonstrate the value of the derived information to the community. The science requires a common validation strategy and better regional/local observational data, as the products coming out of the forecasting system are highly dependent on the quality and quantity of the observational data being assimilated. More observations will be assimilated under the project and thus enhance the quality of the analysis and forecast. The project will have two overall components: 1. Development of an IOGOOS ocean forecast application pilot project, 2. Development of a SEAGOOS ocean forecast application pilot project, with both focussing on specific sub-regional projects. There should be two parallel but linked outcome streams: 1. Demonstrate societal value 2. Advance the science. % 1 through demonstration projects under IOGOOS/SEAGOOS. % 2 through GODAE Oceanview and a possible regional GODAE There will be a requirement to define the level of users. Each user s needs are different, so the projects must specify and focus on what is the most important oceanographic information that is required by these users. WHAT: Components of the current BLUElink system that are of interest: Access to current BL forecast and re-analysis data products Education and training in current BL products Possible creation of new user defined BL products. WHY: IOGOOS/SEAGOOS would like ocean forecast and re-analysis system information for: a) Characterising regional and coastal water circulation, using global model output as boundary conditions in enhancing downscaling through existing high resolution models, such as POM/ROMS b) Biological studies c) SST forecasts (understand stress on primary producers) d) Seasonal predictions for the monsoons, which can result in strong drought or flooding; if BL can cover the monsoon regions in the IO and SEA it can create a good connection for the coupled ocean atmosphere seasonal prediction model. e) Assist in the creation of a cohesive SEAGOOS ocean observing system f) Create an ocean weather service, create a good global connection and then leave space for downscaling. WHO: Identify groups in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, all looking at these issues, to entrain as project partners. There is an opportunity and a need to take advantage of existing ocean forecasting knowledge/outputs to address questions from regional users who have access to high resolution regional models, which would benefit from boundary condition information. STEPS: As an initial focus group: IOC - Nick DAdamo IOGOOS - Balakrishnan Nair SEAGOOS - Somkiat Khokiattiwong/Fredolin Tangang/Weidong Yu INDONESIA Edvin Aldrian (?) JAPAN and IOP Yukio Masumoto This group will draft a more detailed project document, for review, agreement, resource identification and implementation plan development at a focussed meeting around August 09. 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