ࡱ> rtq'` Rbjbj 8rJ!!!!4!D8J""""""""7777777$9h7<7.""..7""88#3#3#3.""7#3.7#3#355" " \/э!0r57=8H85,<2<55<n6\"&#3[)$+,"""772"""8....d.d . Issues/challenges on Users and Provision of Operational Ocean Forecasting Services Operational Ocean Forecasting at NWP Centers GODAE was initiated to develop ocean analysis/forecast systems for extracting maximum benefit and understanding from the combination of remotely sensed and in-situ ocean observing systems. Satellite observing systems include Altimeters (SSH), Scatterometers (Surface wind, waves, currents), and Radiometers (SST, Ocean color...). Of equal importance are the in-situ observing systems, in particular the Argo array of automated profiling floats. Observations from these systems are now assimilated into ocean state estimation and forecasts in near real time and delayed mode reanalysis. As GODAE comes to the end, the initial goal for assimilating observations into ocean forecasts has been largely achieved, in particular for the open ocean. Operational ocean forecast systems are running at a number of operational NWP centers including the U.S. Navy, UK Met Office, Australian Weather Bureau, Canada Meteorological Centre, Japan Meteorological Agency and at dedicated Ocean Forecasting Centres such as Mercator-Ocean and the Nansen Centre (Bergen). Under GODAE Oceanview, there is a push for implementing/building coordinated and sustained operational global ocean forecasting infrastructure at various national and international operational centers. This necessitates a parallel yet strongly tied activity of a sustained global ocean observing systems supported by leading nations. Examples of ocean forecasting centers include MyOcean, UK Met Office, Blue Link at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Mercator Ocean (France), TOPAZ (Nansen Center Norway) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Not to be ignored is the development of more regional systems. However we must ask the questions: Is there sufficient user-pull for nations to invest in sustained operational global and regional observing, modeling and ocean service delivery infrastructure? This issue is particularly important for civilian development of ocean forecasting services in the U.S. The U.S. Navy develops and operates its own Met-Ocean forecast systems. The US Navy is thus not a customer of the civilian operational weather/ocean forecasting services. Unlike the European, Australia, Canada and the UK, the NOAA NWP center can not use its own countries Navy as a primary customer to justify for expanding into operational ocean forecasting services. Who are the end users? The primary end users remain the traditional marine community that the U.S. NWS marine weather service has been serving (these include marine transportation, fishing, boating, search and rescue operations, hazmat spills response and recovery, and offshore mineral exploration and operations). Operational oceanographic services such as ocean current forecasts could enhance services to this community, albeit incrementally. There are ongoing discussions on the role of ocean components in operational weather and climate forecasting through coupled modeling systems such as hurricanes, storm surges, and seasonal climate forecasting applications. Some (in the U.S., NOAA) have made a strong argument that a significant pay off in operational ocean modeling will be in improvements in operational weather forecasting such as hurricane intensity and seasonal climate forecasts. These weather applications could easily be communicated to the public, politicians, and budget examiners. For cold ocean climates such as Canada, the coupling of an ocean system to the atmospheric forecast has a strong impact both in summer and in winter. In particular the accurate prediction of pack ice distribution and movement is extremely valuable to the shipping and the oil industry. It has been shown (Pellerin et al 2004) that forecast items such as dew point in coastal zones are improved by coupling the ocean model to the atmospheric forecast. Additional benefits include better prediction of fog, which can strongly affect marine industry activities. Weather forecast accuracy usually improves by 1 day every decade. That is the todays one day forecast will be as accurate as the 2 day forecast 10 years from now. In some areas of the world, coupling of the ocean with the weather forecast could pay significant dividends to better forecasts particularly at the 2-3 day time period over the ocean. Marine wind forecasts beyond 24 hours in advance on the Canadian east coast are notorious for not installing end user confidence.. Adding the ocean component to weather forecasting could lengthen the time in which a marine wind forecast is useful. The plan for Canada, is both a regional North West Atlantic and Global coupled Atmosphere Ocean Ice forecasting system. Coupling ocean models to NWP models to improve operational weather forecasts is also rising up the agenda at UKMO. MyOcean A Major European initiative following GODAE Over the next three years, the EU has committed a total of 60 million Euros (33 Million from EC, the rest from member states) to build an operational oceanographic forecast infrastructure across the Europe, including 20 forecast centers and one central service delivery center. It is encouraging that European governments are committed to build the operational ocean forecasting infrastructure. However, MyOcean is an implementation project, guaranteed funding to sustain the infrastructure still needs to be determined. It is important to build a base of paying customers, including governments, to sustain the infrastructure. The MyOceans approach is based on a logical succession of European Frame Work projects in operational oceanography from MERSEA Strand 1 to MERSEA. It is the logical next European step prior to full sustained operations. It is a demonstration of the ability and maturity of operational oceanography to sustain long term robust operations. The assumption is build it then show that it is useful, and as the system is being buit, discussion will ensue in how to maintain such as system long term, or how to demonstrate (to potential paying customers) its usefulness. However in Euope, there is already an assumption that a long term ocean observatory and ocean forecasting system is needed for the benefit of all Europeans. In the US, it is probably premature to have large investments in operational oceanography, without strong assurances that system will be sustained. In Japan, the JMA has a well established user base for operational ocean forecast service. JMA supports both government users such as Coast Guard (SAROPS) and National Defense, and private sectors through the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC). It is not clear, however, how private sectors use/depends on operational ocean forecast services provided by JMA since the service is through an intermediary (JMBSC), and, presumably, meteorological and oceanographic services are bundled/combined to fit customers needs. (Masa, comments?) Challenges U.S. (NOAA, NWS) NOAA does not yet have a strong case for building an operational ocean forecasting capability based on end-user demand alone. We could only incrementally improve our services to our marine customer base. I believe the most direct, visible, pay off in operational ocean modeling and prediction capability at NOAA/NWS will be in the impacts on improvements in operational weather and climate forecasting, such as improved hurricane intensity forecasts. The next potential high visibility pay off is probably in coastal resiliency, beyond hurricanes, such as coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-coastal-hydrology models. The ecosystem forecasting is another potential, but it is a long way off by many years. However, NOAA is collaborating with the U.S. Navy to deliver services relying on Navys operational ocean model capabilities. Including providing surface currents and temperatures for Search and Rescue operations, providing real time ocean model output for coastal modeling systems development activities, and using Navys operational ocean model guidance for enhanced marine weather service products. Canada: In Canada, Ocean forecasting now has unity in national approach with a tri-department MOU for National Defence, Fisheries and Oceans and Environment Canada to collaborate with universities. A strong government pull has come from environment Canada which has demonstrated the impact of a regional coupled ocean atmosphere ice forecasting system for limited area (the Gulf of St. Lawrence) with a strong end user base and diffusion system (Shipping companies, local harbor authorities).The challenge for Canada is providing long term commitment in operational oceanography with most current development consisting of stringing a few soft money projects together to create a virtual program. Collaboration with MERSEA, My Ocean, Mercator-Ocean and GODAE helps foster Canadian development. The challenges faced in Canada is in explaining to potential end users what consists of a an ocean forecasting systems and where the utility of this lies. Europe: Demonstrate the usefulness of OOFS products/services to build up a paying customer base in order to sustain MyOcean for long term operations. Japan: (Masa, any challenges?) Others: A Strawman Catalogue of Operational Ocean Forecasting Users/ by Sectors Navy/National Defense This is a major service user and partner for many nations (France, UK, Australia, Canada). The exception is in the US, where the U.S. Navy has its own modeling and forecast operations, one of the most advanced in the US. Search and Rescue Operations (SAROPS) This is the most common services that everyone cites as the major service provision from operational ocean forecasting capability. However Search and Rescue services have particular needs. This includes high temporal and spatial surface current forecasts and hindcasts along with observations. When on scene, coastguards generally deploy satellite tracking buoys to validate surface drift. This would be useful feedback to the forecast centers. Emergency response and restoration for HAZMAT spills Similar to SAROPS, this is a commonly cited service needs. The type of service, however, is also similar to SAROPS, that is events driven, or on-demand, not routine. However both applications are highly visible and demonstrating improvement to these two services, would have a strong impact on the general public for demonstrating the utility of ocean forecasts. Traditional mariners (Marine Transportation, Fishing) Ocean forecasting service provides incremental benefits to these customers. However there are some clear strong applications such as the management of the Southern Bluefinn Tuna Stock in Australia for which weekly ocean condition reports have a strong influence on fish management decisions. Mineral explorations (Oil and Gas, particularly for offshore drilling operations) This area perhaps has some or a lot of potential but is largely untapped. Either there is a lot of service benefits that are yet to be discovered, or the industry is doing their own but unwilling to share, for the purpose of keeping competitive advantage. ET-OOFS may want to put some effort to explore this area further. Some areas where advantages are clear are for oil and gas exploration in severe ocean conditions that include icebergs, pack ice and possibly deep water drilling. Improving operational weather warnings and forecasts This would be an indirect service provision, incorporated into existing NWP services. There is a distinct advantage to operating coupled ocean ice atmosphere forecasting systems. In the first instance, there is an advantage of aulgamation and non duplication in particular of robust operational infrastructure. In a second instance, from the end user perspective all environment products are compatible since the atmosphere, ocean and ice systems are in balance with each other. Thirdly such coupling could provide a one stop shop for end users with environmental forecast needs. Fourthly when running in coupled mode, all three systems will have improved predictability form the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice. An implication in coupling ocean models and NWP models is the need for ET-OOFS/Ocean View to coordinate closely with WGNE to ensure compatibility of operational ocean and NWP systems. These include data systems and data formats, and coordination toward development of coupled data assimilation methodologies and systems. Coastal forecasts and warnings Warning forecasts for storm surge and inundation from both tropical and extratropical storms is another operational service area that ocean models and operational ocean forecast systems can play a critical role. A comprehensive coastal forecast system requires coupling of atmosphere, open ocean, (regional ocean), coastal ocean, wave and hydrological models. ET-OOFS should work closely with the JCOMM/SPA expert team on storm surge and inundation to coordinate model development and service requirements to guide operational development and implementation of coastal forecast systems. Potential ET-OOFS tasks in enhancing operational service provision (for 2010-2013 work plan) Creation/maintenance/updating a Catalogue of OOFS end users by sectors (see the strawman catalogue), and by product categories. Develop an interactive database online for members/operators to update the catalogues Organize end user workshop(s) Gather and validate future product/service needs by end users including who, how, and when Appendix Information about JMAs service By Shiro Ishizaki (JMA) and Masafumi Kamachi (MRI) a) a list of "customers" of your operational services? Actual user (contracted user): Japan Coast Guard (JCG), Japan Ministry of Defense (Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force: JMSDF), Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) Assumed user: (1) in JMA: NWP division, Climate Prediction Division, Marine Observatories (2) through JMA web: (general users) (3) through JMBSC: (private enterprises) (4) Others: Fishery, Shipping Agents b) what type of service "products" that your institution provides? and/or for what applications? General: current (surface and subsurface horizontal velocity fields), SST, subsurface temperature, salinity, sea surface height Prediction about SAR & Oil Spill (JCG, JMA/headquarters): Surface current, surface temperature Fishery: SST, subsurface T Merchant Service (for economical ship routing): surface current (+ wind) Marine leisure: surface current (+ wind) Research (physical, biological, chemical, harbor engineering): T,S,U,V,SSH Japan Ministry of Defense (Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force: JMSDF): subsurface T, SST, surface current (for SAR) c) (optional): what are methods of delivery of your service products to your users/customers? (i.e., put them on the web vs. other method of delivery) JMA web: (figure and commentary) To general users (nowcasting and forecasting fields SST,T,S,U,V,SSH, figure and commentary) JMA leased line: (Gridded point value: GPV; Grib/Grib2 format) To Japan Coast Guard (JCG) (nowcasting and forecasting fields, U,V, surface wind), To Japan Ministry of Defense (JMSDF) (nowcasting, U,V,T,SSH), To Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) (nowcasting and forecasting fields, SST) JMA radio facsimile broadcast (JMH): (figure) To Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) (nowcasting and forecasting fields, SST) To ships in the seas (nowcasting, current, T) NEAR-GOOS data server: (figure, GPV) To registered users (nowcasting fields, of text file with the NEAR-GOOS format) Future Plan (feasibility): (GPV) To JMA headquarters (other divisions) (background information (T, U,V) to sea ice prediction model) (SST & Mixed Layer Depth to Typhoon prediction model) UKMO (from Adrian Hines) Our experience is thatthe main long-term customer for our open ocean forecasts is the Royal Navy - and they are the maincustomer who who noticed if we stopped producing the data. We have a number of "research users" who would also probably notice if thedata were not there, but these do not tend to be paying customers. We have other customers whobuy the data for use in particular offshore operations, but these tend to be intermittent and much smaller scale than the Navy use.I guess the EU is also now a paying customer through the MyOcean project in that it funds 50% of the costs of data production, and makes the resulting data available to all free of charge.However it remains to be seen who the actual end users are that will make use of the products. Ourdirect service to the Navy isa data feed to the forecaster workbench system at the Joint Operational Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (JOMOC) where the operational forecasters (a combination of Met Office and Navy) then interpret the data and add value. We also provide adhoc consultancy type support to the Navy when they have particular queries or requirements. The products are used in various applications from cruise planning to ingestion in Tactical Decision Aids for sonar performance.For other customers we tend to provide adhoc consultancy and data for operations in particular locations - the interest tends to be quite localised, and we would provide some interpretation of the data for the locations of interest. The interest is most frequently in currents, but also sometimes in temperature and salinity. In terms of delivery methods, for the real operational data feed to the Navy the only option is a dedicated comms line - nothing else would be suitably robust or secure. For other operational users with less stringent requirements we would tend to use secure FTP. We would not tend to use web based delivery for true operational users because of the risks of failure at times of greatest need, but we do use the web for more "casual" users. With regard to future applications, the coupling to NWP is one that is rising up the agenda, and there is also interest in using the short range forecasting products to help to provide some context for the seasonal, decadal and climate predictions which are based on the same modelling systems. Finally, in terms of the "if we build, they will come" approach, my feeling is that this is countered somewhat by the "fit for purpose" arguments that many potential users put forward - i.e. they tend to argue that what they have already is adequate, and hence are reluctant to invest in moving to a new service. I think this places some onus on us to pro-actively demonstrate benefits, something which I don't think the ocean forecasting community has done very convincingly to date. So I think I would go for an "if we build and show that it is useful, then they will come" approach! I will aim to include and expand on the above points in my report to the meeting, so it may not be necessary for Hendrik to cover these points specifically, but hopefully this gives you some idea of where we are with this at the Met Office. 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