ࡱ> PZOz` 0PNbjbjss ލ1F...B))))D*<Bb:Z*Z*Z*Z*p*,2,, 9999999$<h>z:./k,@,//:Z*p*:000/8Z*.p*90/900:U6,.6p*N* ph)06 9$2:0b:6R>0(>6>.6,vs-T0-D .,,,::0,,,b:////BB$fJBBfJBBB  WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION JCOMM/CHy COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (CIFDP) "In the 1970s, '80s, and '90s, inland flooding was responsible for more than half of the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States." (Ed Rappaport, National Hurricane Center) DRAFT PROJECT OUTLINE 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 Recognizing the extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges and coastal inundation/flooding, there is a strong need for the development and implementation of forecasting and warning systems, which allow dedicated disaster prevention agencies to safeguard lives and mitigate damages on infrastructure in coastal areas. As many sectors are involved, this requires an integrated approach that is embedded in an overall framework of coastal risk management. Key players are the National meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of affected Members and related national and local institutions responsible for disaster prevention, international organizations with their subsidiary bodies as well as centres of excellence in research and application of storm surge and coastal inundation mapping, modelling and forecasting. At some stage awareness raising and education expertise will also be required. Some of the developments achieved to date are outlined below. 1.2 WMO Fifteenth Congress (May 2007) requested the Secretary-General to coordinate the collection and dissemination of information on meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards and their impacts, when possible and available. To assist in meeting this objective there is a requirement for the development of guidelines for the maintenance of common database structures, metadata, and tools for mapping and analysis of tropical cyclones, storm surges, extreme waves and related coastal inundation. 1.3 WMO through JCOMM has initiated the development of standard methodologies and tools for hazard data monitoring, archiving (including metadata), analysis and mapping for storm surges and extreme waves. Additionally, JCOMM has engaged in the development of a database of extreme wave events, which provides a useful reference to historical background on various studies and applications, including modelling, monitoring and predicting extreme events and their impacts. 1.4 In view of the extreme vulnerability of the coastal areas to tropical cyclones, the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) gives great importance to coastal risk management. It initiated a TCP sub-project entitled Combined Effects of Storm Surges and River Floods and Wind Waves in Low Lying Areas. This project aims to provide Members in low-lying areas with guidance on how to be better prepared and to prevent damage and losses from flooding, storm surges and waves associated with tropical cyclones. In response to a request of the WMO Executive Council, at its 60th session (June 2008), WMO has initiated, through the joint efforts of TCP and JCOMM, the development of Storm Surge Watch Schemes (SSWS) in regions subject to tropical cyclones. The RA I and V Tropical Cyclone Committees established the SSWS Action Teams; the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee decided to develop a regional SSWS plan; the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones made the SSWS arrangements in cooperation with the RSMC-New Delhi and the India Institute of Technology; and the RA IV Hurricane Committee recognized that capacity building initiatives are required for a successful implementation of the SSWS in its region. 1.5 WMO, through its Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR) Programme, is contributing through the improvement of tools and methodologies for flood hazard and risk analysis. This effort considers coastal inundation linked to tropical cyclones and marine-related hazards, including storm surge and extreme waves. The integration of flood forecasting and warning services (systems and models) with storm surge and tidal effects where appropriate is seen by the HWR programme as adding significant value to hazard mitigation. 1.6 Flood mapping is an activity that would form an essential element of managing flood risks. Flood maps serve as important tools to organize the information on flood risks to be used by decision makers and the public. While detailed technical methodologies in data rich situations are available in literature for calculating flood prone areas and flood risks, guidance on the overall approach to flood mapping and risk assessment are conspicuously missing. For these reasons, WMO and its partners have embarked on a project to develop Guidelines on Flood Mapping covering pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding processes. The draft guidelines are expected to be available in autumn 2009. 2. WHY A DEMONSTRATION PROJECT ON COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING? 2.1 Cooperative work as a strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation 2.1.1 Storm surges and wind-induced waves associated with severe cyclones, and its combined effect with river flooding, leading to coastal inundation, stand out as natural hazard with extreme damaging potential including loss of lives and livelihoods. 2.1.2 Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave and flood forecasting will be the strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The goal of the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) is to show how coastal inundation forecasting products can be improved and effectively coordinated with warning services provided by the NMHSs. This process will be facilitated primarily by technical commissions, in particular JCOMM and CHy, in cooperation with a consortium of experts and related institutions of excellence in the field of storm surge, wave and coastal flooding. 2.1.3 A second, but closely related goal of CIFDP is to contribute to the improvement of interaction of NMHSs with Disaster Management and Civil Protection Agencies, through the development of preparedness, response and management strategies of storm surges and waves associated with coastal inundation. These strategies will be built on the basis of hazard and vulnerability maps and related information for the use of Disaster Management and Civil Protection Agencies. 2.2 Introducing new products and training 2.2.1 Despite the increasing number of NMHSs that run storm surge, wave and hydrological models, coupled coastal forecasting systems are still limited. With CIFDP, NMHSs will benefit from utilizing such forecast products operationally and linking them to coastal flood management programmes and related activities. This requires substantive training in the use of these products, under different hydrometeorological and risk situations. 3. EXPECTED OUTCOMES OF CIFDP AND HOW IT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STORM SURGE WATCH SCHEME (SSWS) 3.1 In line with recommendations from the First JCOMM Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (Seoul, Republic of Korea, October 2007), including coastal inundation and linkages to storm surge forecast and warning operations the expected outcomes of the CIFDP can be formulated as listed below. The WMO Executive Council had agreed on the need to incorporate a SSWS in the tropical cyclone advisory arrangements, which would be the first step towards a comprehensive and integrated marine multi-hazard forecasting and warning system for improved coastal risk management. 3.2 The WMO Executive Council, in its sixtieth session (June 2008) requested JCOMM and CHy, in close cooperation with other relevant UNESCO/IOC subsidiary bodies, to implement the recommendations from the above-mentioned Symposium, including coastal inundation and linkages to storm surge forecast and warning operations in all relevant regions through the participating NMHSs as primary target organizations and executing partners of the project. 3.3 Formulation of Expected Outcomes of CIFDP: To enable NMHSs to provide credible forecasting of coastal inundation events with adequate lead time for warnings; To improve the skill of forecasting and warning products through feedback from NMHSs and user communities; To improve interaction of NMHSs with Disaster Management and Civil Protection Agencies before and during events; To provide tools for undertaking risk assessments for coastal inundation associated with extreme events such as tropical cyclones; To share best practices on coastal inundation forecasting among NMHSs and users of such information; Facilitate preparatory steps for the development of a comprehensive SSWS. 3.4 Some Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones do not have the capacity to function as storm surge forecast producing centres. The CIFDP will contribute to the implementation of the SSWS, by facilitating the use of an integrated atmospheric-ocean and hydrological forecasting software package for coastal inundation, therefore contributing to building the required capacity of selected RSMCs. 4. THE FRAMEWORK FOR REALIZING BENEFITS OF THE CIFDP 4.1 On the basis of the expected results of CIFDP, the main work packages and project activities will focus on: Establishment, calibration and test-operation of an integrated forecasting module; Capacity building through the training of technical personnel; Building communication platforms that allow interaction with relevant organizations and institutions on national, regional and global levels; Facilitation of the development of a comprehensive SSWS. 4.2 Development of an integrated atmosphere-ocean and hydrological forecasting software package for coastal inundation 4.2.1 The CIFDP will assemble an integrated atmosphere-ocean and hydrological forecasting software package for coastal inundation, including visualization tools, and the use of selected storm surge, wave and hydrological models (effectively comprising a coupled coastal forecasting system). This software will be built on available and tested components rather than the development of an entirely new software package. 4.3 Implementation, calibration and validation of the software package, including sensitivity tests and development of coastal inundation scenarios and mapping 4.3.1 The CIFDP will implement the above-mentioned software package in selected NMHSs of coastal inundation-prone countries, including the RSMCs with activity specialization in tropical cyclones. 4.3.2 Sensitivity tests will be conducted taking into account boundary conditions, including bathymetry and topography, and input data available in each region/country to fine-tune the process and products. Near real-time verification and evaluation will be conducted, based on observations as well as on information gathered on the impacts of the coastal inundation, such as those reported by local Disaster Management and Civil Protection Agencies (DMCPA). Guidelines for coastal inundation scenarios and mapping will be developed. This will be the basis for the development of coastal risk management strategies. It is recognized that data availability will be a key limiting factor and must be considered carefully in the design of appropriate tools. 4.4 Training the forecasters before the operational experiment 4.4.1 Some initial training has to be undertaken prior to the testing phase of the CIFDP. The forecasters of the NMHSs assigned to the CIFDP need to know how to optimally operate and utilize the software package products. The presentation of case studies will be indispensable. The training provided will focus on the adaptation and use of the software package, analysis of forecast results and the generation of forecasting products and warning bulletins. 4.5 Building communication platforms 4.5.1 As an important component of institutional strengthening and in view to ensure the effectiveness of the CIFDP, formalized communication platforms will be established, linking relevant institutions responsible for forecasting and warning as well as disaster prevention through a dedicated information generation, reporting and response system of communication. This requires an assessment of the existing communication streams, gaps and shortfalls and subsequently the establishment of communication platforms in a fully participatory manner with relevant shareholders. 4.6 Towards a comprehensive Storm Surge Watch System (SSWS) 4.6.1 In cooperation with partners and in particular JCOMM and TCP, the components of CIFDP will be evaluated for a suitable packaging in view of a comprehensive SSWS. A critical pre-requisite of this activity is the regionally different state of development of the SSWS components. It is however envisaged to test-run a demonstration version of a CIFDP/SSWS system to gain experience in the day-to-day operation of such a complex integrated system. 4.7 Evaluation and conclusion at the end of the project 4.7.1 At the end of the testing period, a complete evaluation of the project has to be undertaken. The main part of this evaluation consists of a complete assessment concerning the skill of the forecasts and especially on the ability of the NMHS to fulfil the requirements expressed by the responsible civil protection authority. The evaluation must assess how the enhanced coastal inundation forecasting process of the CIFDP has improved. It would be highly beneficial that the NMHS and the responsible civil protection authority be involved in the evaluation. 4.7.2 The evaluation should also include an assessment on the relevance of the products. Finally, the evaluation of the CIFDP should identify the shortcomings, and propose improvements in order to ensure the sustainability of the coastal inundation forecasting system as well as to facilitate an extension of the system to other NMHSs of the same geographical region, in the context of the SSWS. It will be essential to identify the cost of improvements and the benefits that would flow from their implementation, so that value judgements can be made before progressing any further. 5. THE THREE PHASES OF THE CIFDP 5.1 It is proposed to plan and implement the project in three phases. 5.2 Phase I 5.2.1 This phase comprises of all administrative and organizational steps required for the planning and implementation of the project, including agreements with all partner organizations and securing of the funding base. Technical preparations include the selection of model components, and securing critical data and information sources for the implementation of the forecasting module. Critical milestone will be the availability of a full project proposal, project implementation plan and robust agreements with project partners. 5.3 Phase II 5.3.1 This phase consists primarily of a full-scale implementation of the project with the milestone of demonstration versions of the forecasting module at regional and national levels (sub-projects), establishment of the communication platforms and ongoing capacity building, including technical training. 5.4 Phase III 5.4.1 This phase is characterized as the project finalization and transfer phase to defined partners on national and regional levels. It also contains all activities that are essential for the project exit strategy and will include the final evaluation of the project. 5.4.2 A Monitoring and Evaluation (M & E) Plan is an integral part of the entire project and its phases that allows fine-tuning of project components and improvement of project implementation processes. 5.5 Phases II and III are specific to each regional/national sub-projects and will be repeated in each sub-project. From the point of view of the project management, it is clear that the overall CIFDP begins with the first step of Phase I and ends after completion of Phase III of the selected regional/national sub-projects. Each selected regional/national sub-project will have its own commencement and completion dates. 6. THE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT STEERING GROUP (PSG) 6.1 Establishment of a Project Steering Group 6.1.1 The PSG will comprise of experts from the marine meteorology/oceanography and hydrological communities on storm surge, wave and hydrological modelling and forecasting. For the implementation of the regional/national sub-projects, participants from the region/country as well as experts of selected institutions of excellence will be invited to be part of the PSG. The initial tasks of the PSG will primarily comprise of the activities outlined below. 6.2 Tasks of the PSG 6.2.1 The PSG prepares the overall project implementation plan, and defines a set of criteria to be fulfilled by the candidate centres operating the storm surge, wave and hydrological models for setting up the software package and its regional/national application (sub-projects). 6.2.2 The PSG selects the storm surge, wave and hydrological models for the development of the software package, and the region/country for the implementation of the regional/national sub-projects. 6.2.3 The PSG follows up the progress of the project and sub-project(s). Regular reports are expected for the different phases, at a minimum of once every 4 months. 6.2.4 The PSG is responsible for issuing the final report on the CIFDP and preparing recommendations to be transmitted to the relevant WMO and IOC bodies. 6.2.5 The terms of reference of this PSG will be reviewed and adapted at its first meeting in Geneva, scheduled from 29 June to 1 July 2009. 7. FUNDING SOURCE(S) 7.1 WMO funding is available for phase I (2009-2010) and partly phase II (2010-2011). The project will be submitted to the EU 7th Framework Programme for funding. It will also be submitted to partner organizations/donors (such as World Bank, etc.) for funding of the regional/national sub-projects.   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