ࡱ>  9bjbj 4u1+  EEEEEYYY8%Y:AAWWWj k:m:m:m:m:m:m:$=?:Efj:EEWW:"""EWEWk:"k:""%45W m0Y44W::0:4b@b@,55b@EG9":: l:b@ : ASSESSING INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS IN WEST AFRICA By Regina Folorunsho Nigeria Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research Lagos INTRODUCTION Inundation occurs when an area (island, coast or coastal area) is completely submerged under the rising storm surge. Inundation may occur on a large scale, covering an entire island, or it may be localized to a small region of the coastline. Inundation is most likely to occur in areas that are naturally low in elevation, although it may also be triggered by the severe erosion and overwash of the coastal dune system. CAUSES OF INUNDATION Inundation can be caused by excessive rainfall, sea level rise, and storm surges, flooding of river banks, subsidence and low topography. All these processes may be interlinked and sporadic but the most difficult to visualize is inundation from sea level rise. This is because the process of sea level rise is rather slow. THE WEST AFRICAN COASTAL ZONE The West African sub region extends from Morocco to South Africa on the western seaboard of Africa. Three Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) Benguela Current LME (BCLME), Guinea Current LME (GCLME) and the Canary Current LME (CCLME) are found in the south, middle and north, respectively. The sub region also includes the island states of Sao Tome & Principe in the south and Cape Verde in the north and also the Canary (Spain) and Madeira (Portugal) islands West Africa is populated mostly by countries exposed to the coast of the Atlantic Ocean. The 17 countries of the region include only four landlocked states; Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. The regions population concentrated on the coastal area (that is within 60km from the coastline), was estimated at 42.68million in 1994, that is a quarter of the coastal countries. Major urban areas such as Nouakchott, Dakar, Conakry, Abidjan, Accra, Tema, Cotonou, Lome, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Calabar etc are all located along the coastline. The coastal morphology of the region consists of successions of: Sandy arid coastal plains bordered by eolian dunes (Mauritania, North Coast of Senegal, Angola); Marshy and sandy alluvial with estuaries and deltas, colonised by mangrove vegetation (south of Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, Sierra Leone); Rocky scarps and sandy beaches, alternating with mangrove vegetation (Sierra Leone, Liberia, eastern Nigeria to Gabon); Low sandy coastal plains which alternate with lagoons along the Gulf of Guinea (Cote dIvoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Congo estuary up to the Angolan border); and Huge marshy areas formed by the Niger delta, with mangroves indented by fluvial channels which are subject to tidal influence. The West African coastal zone experiences a tropical climate consisting of rainy season (May to October) and dry season (November to April). The influence of the warm maritime air-mass enables the area to experience two seasons of rainfall with about six to eight months of rain in a year. The first season of rain begins between April and May and ends in July, while the second starts in late August and ends in early October. However, in certain years, there is a continuous rainfall devoid of the usual short dry month of August. The rainy months are characterised by rainfall averaging 1,828.8mm per annum, while the dry season is characterised by the dry northeast trade winds (hamattan winds) which are dry and dust laden. However, the full effects of these dry winds are often subdued by local onshore winds. The dry season lasts between October to March and is characterized by the Northeast trade winds with speed of between 2 and 7m/s. During this period, low visibility and cold conditions are experienced. Temperatures during the two seasons range between 28o and 30o C. Local winds experienced along the coastal areas during the dry season are the subdued continental air-mass (harmattan) with an average wind speed of about 2 6 m/sec. On-shore south-westerly winds experienced during the wet season, result from the presence of the Maritime air-mass. These winds are more prevalent in the months of May to October and are characterized by a relatively higher wind speeds on the average of about 6 to 9.5m/sec. assessment of the problems associated with coastal inundation in West Africa (ocean and hydrologic). The West African area experiences continuous rapid demographic growth due to the impoverished countryside and the concentration of economic infrastructures and investments in large coastal urban areas. In Senegal, 90% of industrial units are located along the coastline, mainly in Dakar and its Suburbs. The same is true of countries such as The Gambia, Cote dIvoire, and Nigeria. Inundation of coastal areas along the West African coast is primarily the result of low lying topography, storm surge events and sea level rise. Topography The coastal areas along the West African coast are very susceptible to flooding due to their very low topography. The nature of the topography of the West African coastal area renders them susceptible to flooding especially during high tides. Beach elevation in most areas averages between 1 to 3m above mean low water. Though the tidal range is low (1-2m) in most coastal areas, large areas of the back beach are perpetually wet and water logged. The coastal area especially the Niger delta with poor drainage, results in storm waters collecting in hollows and eventually flooding large areas within the coastal areas. Many settlements have had to move upland many times to escape being washed away by the floodwaters. The adverse effects of flooding are more perceptible when stormy conditions coincide with high tides. Whenever storm surges coincide with spring tide, most beaches at a maximum elevation of 3 m above sea level are usually topped by wave resulting in flooding. The August 1995 and May 2004 storm surges resulted in the topping of the beach ridge along Victoria Island and flooding along most parts of the low-lying Nigerian coastline. Storm surge Ocean storm surge is a natural phenomenon causing coastal changes and destabilising socioeconomic activities along the low-lying West African coastal zone. A storm with high sustained winds can cause a storm surge along several types of coastline. Records of storm surges parameters reveal that they are meteorologically induced and more prevalent between the months of March to April and August to September when atmospheric low pressure systems are more pronounced between latitudes 5 to 10 in the south Atlantic (Awosika et al 1995 ). Associated characteristics of the storm surges include wind speed of about 8 12m/s as against normal wind speed of about 0 6.5m/sec; high wave dynamics with heights ranging from 3m - 5m and periods averaging 15-20secs (Awosika et al 1995). A single storm can have more erosional effect on the shoreline than many months of more normal wave and tidal conditions. Sporadic flooding resulting from storm surges also results in the breakdown of socio-economic activities and increase salinisation of ground water which is the main source of portable water in the area. Sea level rise One of the adverse effects of Climate change is sea level rise. A rise in sea level will cause coastal inundation, an effect that is difficult to separate from the effect of shore erosion where erosion is occurring. Sea level rise have hence been documented as causing inundation of coastal areas. The effects of sea level rise and inundation on the West African coast has been documented as rather adverse (Awosika et al 1993; Nichols et al 1993 and French et al 1995) In West Africa, the areas most vulnerable to a rise in sea levels have the highest population concentrations and are sometimes the most urbanised (except for the Mauritanian coast). From Dakar to Douala, there are 12 cities of over a million inhabitants along the coastline. Among the cities that could be adversely affected by SLR include the Gambian capital Banjul and Lagos, Nigeria's economic capital and home to 15 million people. The Niger Delta, home of Nigerias oil and gas could lose well over 2846km2 as a result of 0.2m sea level rise (Awosika et. al., 1992). Victoria Island and Lekki in Lagos could lose well over 584 and 602 square kilometers of land from erosion while inundation could completely submerge the entire Lekki barrier system (Table 1). Such adverse impacts will affect the residential, commercial and tourist facilities on the Victoria, Ikoyi and Lagos islands at well over U.S $12billion. Table 1. Total land loss (Km2 by shoreline type) due to erosion and inundation by different SLR scenarios. (Awosika et. al., 1992). PRIVATE LOW ESTIMATEHIGH ESTIMATESLR0.2m0.5m1.0m 2.0m0.2m0.5.m1.0m2.0mBarrier 177 284 584 1167 118 289 602 1204Mud 4031008 2016 3456 4031008 2016 3456Delta284674531512518398286575001533218803 Strand 79 197 395 575 85 212 446 677Total344589421812023596347190091839624140 In Guinea, rising sea levels linked to global warming is feared to likely result in stronger coastal currents, higher tides and sea encroachment of land. It is feared that the main victims of all these climate variations would be people living near the coast. An estimate of 2 million people is likely to suffer income losses. In Ghana, up to 1,000 kilometers of land may be lost in the Volta Delta owing to sea-level rise and inundation. requirements for support tools to address these problems. The complexity of processes that cause coastal inundation and the need for tools to identify, evaluate, and predict the risk of inundation in coastal areas requires the understanding of the processes and the causes. Today there are a large variety of coastal inundation models that are being used to simulate and forecast rainfalls, storm surges, hurricanes, and tsunamis and their impacts. One of the methods to achieve this is the development and use of mathematical models that allow inundation caused by storm surges, low relief, sea level rise and tsunamis to be simulated. The development and implementation of numerical models allows these natural events to be replicated so that their potential effect can be known and lives and property protected. In order to fully simulate inundation on coastal areas there is need to collate data that will be needed in any software. Data required for any cause of inundation include: Topographic data (topo charts) Nearshore bathymetry, Tidal data Rainfall data Wind Seismicity River flow/channel RECOMMENDATIONS This write-up is an attempt at documenting the need for inundation studies along the West African coastal area. Following this brief scoping of the problem, the recommendations below are provided: Identify area of low relief along the coast susceptible to inundation. Identify a simple but effective software package involving both ocean and hydrological models to enable an assessment and forecast of total coastal inundation from combined extreme events, including but not restricted to tropical cyclones (surges and river flooding). Identify and collate data as input into a model Simulate inundation using software and data. Training and capacity development of regional scientist. This training can be a hands-on basis. Nigeria DATA TYPETopographicBathymetryRiver Run- offTidal DataRainfallSOURCES Federal SurveysNigerian Hydrographic office (Navy)River Basin AuthorityNigerian Institute for OceanographyNigerian Meteorological Agency FORMAT (REAL TIME-delayedReal timeReal timeDELAYED MODEHistorial data/chartHistorical datahistoricalhistoricalhistorical Ghana Data TypeTopographicBathymetryRiver Run- offTidal DataRainfallSources Ghana Surveys DepartmentGhana Surveys or University of Legon, GhanaRiver AuthoritiesDepartment of FisheriesGhana Meteorological Agency Format (real Time-delayedReal timeReal timeDelayed ModeHistorial data/chartHistorical datahistoricalhistoricalhistorical REFERENCES Awosika, L. F., French, G. T., Nicholls R. J., and Ibe, C. E., (1993). Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Nigeria: In Proc. IPCC symposium on the Rising Challenge of the Sea, Margarita Island, Venezuela 14 -19 March 1992. French, G. T. and Awosika, L. F. (1993). Sea-level rise in Nigeria: Potential Impacts and consequences, Journal of Coastal Research SI # 14. pp 224-261. Nicholls RJ, Awosika LF, Niang-Diop I, Dennis KC, French GT (1993) Vulnerability of West Africa to accelerated sea level rise. In: Coastlines of Western Africa. American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, p 294308      PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 8  &'78:;<Vv{iT?T?)h|+hgB*CJOJPJQJaJph)h|+h[B*CJOJPJQJaJph#h|+h=65CJOJPJQJaJhC=5CJOJPJQJaJ#h|+h3#5CJOJPJQJaJhjF5CJOJPJQJaJ#h|+hjF5CJOJPJQJaJh3#5CJOJPJQJaJhBz^5CJOJPJQJaJ#h3#hnz5CJOJPJQJaJ#h3#h_m5CJOJPJQJaJ78;<N? T $dh7$8$H$a$gd|+$ & Fdha$gd|+$dhdd[$\$a$gd|+$ & Fdha$gd|+ $dha$gd|+ $dha$gd|+ > ? 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