ࡱ>    bjbjoo Sw  KrK   )))) )Hq#A''''(&.0~91((11B<''$4B<B<B<1 ''B<1B<B<tOŮ)N;-^] X<B<B<(A111 U:     Global Environment Facility Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme Large Marine Ecosystems and Open Ocean Working Groups Report of the first meetings 3 - 5 February, 2010 UNESCO/IOC, Paris, France  Table of Contents  TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u Section I: Joint plenary sessions and overview  PAGEREF _Toc130450045 \h 1 DAY 1: JOINT PLENARY SESSION  PAGEREF _Toc130450046 \h 1 Opening  PAGEREF _Toc130450047 \h 1 Presentations  PAGEREF _Toc130450048 \h 2 Summary of the outcomes of the meetings of the TWAP Interlinkages/Data Management and Information working groups  PAGEREF _Toc130450049 \h 2 Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) methodology and lessons learned  PAGEREF _Toc130450050 \h 3 Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis and Causal Chain Analysis  PAGEREF _Toc130450051 \h 3 UN General Assembly (UNGA) Regular Process for a Global Marine Assessment  PAGEREF _Toc130450052 \h 4 The modular approach for assessing changing states of LMEs  PAGEREF _Toc130450053 \h 5 Parallel Sessions of each Working Group  PAGEREF _Toc130450054 \h 6 DAY 3: JOINT PLENARY SESSION  PAGEREF _Toc130450055 \h 6 Presentations  PAGEREF _Toc130450056 \h 6 Mapping the cumulative impact of human activities on the oceans  PAGEREF _Toc130450057 \h 6 Groundwater Working Group update  PAGEREF _Toc130450058 \h 7 Closing Joint Plenary  PAGEREF _Toc130450059 \h 8 CLOSING SESSION  PAGEREF _Toc130450060 \h 8 Section II: LMEs Working Group  PAGEREF _Toc130450061 \h 9 DAY 1  PAGEREF _Toc130450062 \h 9 Opening remarks by Chair  PAGEREF _Toc130450063 \h 9 Presentations  PAGEREF _Toc130450064 \h 10 Indicator template  PAGEREF _Toc130450065 \h 10 LME assessment units and boundaries  PAGEREF _Toc130450066 \h 10 Fish and fisheries module  PAGEREF _Toc130450067 \h 11 Pollution  PAGEREF _Toc130450068 \h 11 DAY 2  PAGEREF _Toc130450069 \h 12 Presentations  PAGEREF _Toc130450070 \h 13 Marine habitats as indicators of ecosystem health  PAGEREF _Toc130450071 \h 13 Species assessment as an indicator of ecosystem health, trends and as a tool for policy and decision-making  PAGEREF _Toc130450072 \h 14 Integrated LME assessment: Socioeconomic indicators  PAGEREF _Toc130450073 \h 14 Governance  PAGEREF _Toc130450074 \h 15 Linking integrated assessment to management user needs  PAGEREF _Toc130450075 \h 16 Database-driven LME ecosystem models  PAGEREF _Toc130450076 \h 17 Interlinkages with other systems: Nutrient Flux Model  PAGEREF _Toc130450077 \h 18 Estuarine ecohealth: issues, indicators and possible approaches  PAGEREF _Toc130450078 \h 18 DAY 3  PAGEREF _Toc130450079 \h 19 Preliminary list of indicators  PAGEREF _Toc130450080 \h 19 Next Steps  PAGEREF _Toc130450081 \h 23 Section III: Open Ocean Working Group  PAGEREF _Toc130450082 \h 24 Introduction and Working Method  PAGEREF _Toc130450083 \h 24 Top-level questions for the Open Ocean Assessment  PAGEREF _Toc130450084 \h 25 Preliminary assessment framework  PAGEREF _Toc130450085 \h 27 Regional assessment units  PAGEREF _Toc130450086 \h 27 Development of the variables and indicators  PAGEREF _Toc130450087 \h 29 Challenges ahead  PAGEREF _Toc130450088 \h 30 Future work  PAGEREF _Toc130450089 \h 30 ANNEX I Meeting agenda  PAGEREF _Toc130450090 \h 31 ANNEX II List of participants  PAGEREF _Toc130450091 \h 35 ANNEX III Draft TWAP indicator template  PAGEREF _Toc130450092 \h 38 ANNEX IV Open Ocean WG Top-level questions and variables/indicators  PAGEREF _Toc130450093 \h 39  Section I: Joint plenary sessions and overview The first meetings of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP) Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) and Open Ocean Working Groups (WGs) were hosted by UNESCO-Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) from 3 - 5 February 2010 in Paris. The meetings consisted of joint plenary (reported here in Section I) and parallel sessions of the LMEs and Open Ocean WGs (reported in Sections II and III). The meeting agenda and list of participants are given in Annexes I and II. DAY 1: JOINT PLENARY SESSION Opening Salif Diop, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA), Nairobi, opened the meeting. He welcomed participants and reiterated that the purpose of TWAP is to help GEF identify priority areas for intervention as well as to help governments in managing their shared water bodies. A number of partner organizations such as UNEP, UNESCO-IOC and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have an important role to play in TWAP. Mention was also made of the need to look at how TWAP could contribute to the UN Regular Process, and of the need to report on oceans to the Commission on Sustainable Development in five years time. Participants were also welcomed by Ms Wendy Watson-Wright, Executive Secretary of IOC. Ms Watson-Wright stressed the importance of the meeting to the IOC and the importance of the oceans. It was reiterated that the WGs should come up with tangible indicators, including socioeconomic indicators. She also mentioned that the UN Regular Process is an important initiative and has many challenges. She hoped that GEF will fund the TWAP Full Size Project (FSP) following completion of this Medium Size Project (MSP). Keith Alverson of the IOC chaired the first plenary session. The meeting rapporteurs were Albert Fischer (coordinator of the TWAP Open Ocean Component) and Sherry Heileman (coordinator of the TWAP LME Component). Alverson informed participants of the objectives and expected outcomes of the meetings and of the terms of reference of the working groups. He noted that the Open Ocean is of concern to everyone and its assessment marks a new area to GEF. Further, he reiterated that the objective of TWAP is to develop a scientifically credible methodology, thus the need for experts. The conduct of the assessment will be done as a GEF full size project (FSP), but because of limited financial resources (10 - 15 million dollars for five water systems) it will be important to build partnerships with key agencies (US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and others), regional seas and environmental conventions, etc. There is need for discussion on how to engage other partners. He urged the WGs to produce a simple tractable methodology. Key outcomes should be 10 15 indicators for each of the two systems. It was observed that much work has already been done for LMEs and a challenge for the LMEs WG is to determine what new could be developed to respond to the needs of TWAP. The methodology for the Open Ocean, on the other hand, lags behind, and there are many challenges in studying the Open Ocean. Because of the need for synergy between the two WGs, some joint sessions were scheduled in the meeting. There is need to define Open Ocean, which is transboundary and outside of national jurisdiction. He suggested that some flexibility be maintained in the treatment of Open Ocean assessment units, although other initiatives have divided up the Open Ocean (e.g. the 21 units of the UN Regular Process, Belkin gyres). There might be no need to split up the Open Ocean assessment units, which could be thematic (e.g. acidification and SST) or benthic/pelagic this is an issue for the WG to discuss. Mention was also made of the need to include socioeconomic drivers and impacts and to capture the impacts of the Open Ocean on terrestrial areas in the methodology. The Global Ocean Observing System was developed with governments and receives a high level of national attention. There is need for sustained observation on biogeochemistry. Discussion GEF has provided clear guidelines on the meaning of transboundary shared or impacted by other countries. The question was asked about how governance would be dealt with in LMEs and Open Ocean. User communities already exist (e.g. Fisheries regional and international organizations), who could possibly take the TWAP assessment on board. Governance arrangements will have to be assessed. The approach to the Open Ocean has been mainly physical, and there is need to include chemical and biological aspects. Sea level rise (SLR) should also be included in the LMEs component, and not only in the Open Ocean component. SLR has specific impacts in coastal areas, and should be discussed in the LMEs group. The Open Ocean benthos and sea floor are to be also included in the TWAP methodology. The sub-seafloor will be included if the group presented a good case for this. There are strong scientific and political arguments for organizations to put the oceans back on the global agenda. Presentations Copies of presentations are available at  HYPERLINK "http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1" http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1 Summary of the outcomes of the meetings of the TWAP Interlinkages/Data Management and Information working groups A. Fischer, Coordinator, TWAP Open Ocean Component A summary of the outcomes of the meetings of these two working groups, which were held in December 2009 at UNESCO, was presented as guidance to the experts. These meetings clarified that the main goals of the TWAP project were to produce five separate methodologies for assessments of transboundary concerns in each water system, and the identification of the partnerships needed to conduct those assessments. The now-combined TWAP Interlinkages group has three main goals, limited from the larger goals of the previously separate 'Interlinkages between and among Five Water Systems and Integrated Global Assessment and Demonstration Projects' (IGA) and the 'Data Management and Indicators' (DMI) working groups. The limited goals of the interlinkages group are now to: Identify potential common methods / frameworks; Ensure inputs and outputs are being properly captured between water systems; and Identify potential cross-cutting themes. The interlinkages group has suggested the impairment of ecosystem services and goods model as a potential common framework, and identified four potential cross-cutting themes across the five water systems: climate change (with a focus on impacts and vulnerability), productivity, nutrients and eutrophication and pollution (mercury). (Post meeting comment: Ocean acidification is an obvious common framework for a cross-cutting theme that is likely to impair ecosystem services in LMEs and Open Ocean. It would be a significant miscalculation not to include it.) The meeting asked the LME and Open Ocean WGs to consider a number of issues. Among these were how to treat the specific case of Small Island Developing States. It noted a strong resonance with the UN General Assembly development of a Regular Process for a Global Marine Assessment, and asked the Open Ocean group to consider its assessment units, which should make sense scientifically. Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) methodology and lessons learned S. Heileman, Coordinator, TWAP LME Component and Ms Elina Rautalahti, TWAP Project Manager The GIWA assessment methodology was described. Among the 66 GIWA sub-regions were a number of LMEs, which makes this assessment of particular relevance to the TWAP LMEs component. The methodology consisted of five main steps: scaling, scoping, detailed assessment (including rating of the severity of the impacts), causal chain analysis and policy option analysis. The assessment focused on five major concerns: Freshwater Shortage, Unsustainable Exploitation of Fisheries and Other Living Resources, Pollution, Habitat and Community Modification, Global Change, under which were 22 specific water-related problems. At the regional level, a bottom-up and multidisciplinary approach was adopted that involved nearly 1,500 natural and social scientists from around the world. The outputs included a number of regional reports in print and electronic version (available at www.unep.org/dewa/giwa). Lessons learned from GIWA were presented by Ms E. Rautalahti, TWAP project manager, UNEP DEWA, Nairobi. The GIWA reports help to inform priority setting mechanisms in the regions. Among the benefits of the project were results that are comparable based on the same criteria, and strengthened credibility of the assessment through the use of regional teams and peer review of the reports. Drawbacks included limited data availability in some cases, the lack of expertise in socioeconomics and policy-making and lack of stakeholder involvement in some regions. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis and Causal Chain Analysis Rebecca Klaus, consultant, GEF Agulhas and Somali Current LME project The presentation began with a description of GEF support for LMEs and an introduction to the 5 LME modules. The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis/Strategic Action programme (TDA/SAP) process, which is used in GEF LME projects, was described. The TDA is a scientific and technical process of diagnosing the state of, and threats to, international waters. It aims to identify, quantify, and set priorities for the environmental problems that are transboundary in nature and identify the immediate, underlying and root causes of the transboundary problems (within the 5 LME modules). The TDA, which is not a negotiated document, is a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation. In contrast, a SAP is a negotiated policy document that identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investment opportunities to address the priority issues identified by the TDA. The SAP defines a timeframe for the actions and measures for implementation at regional and national levels along with a mechanism for monitoring success and delivery of SAP objectives and actions. The Causal Chain Analysis (CCA) was also described. It is an analytical tool used to help identify root causes of the identified problems, and consists of a series of statements that links the causes of a problem with its effects. The causes can be classified as immediate causes (the direct technical cause of the problem, usually a physical, biological or chemical variable); underlying (contribute to the immediate causes, and can broadly be defined as underlying resource uses and practices and their related social and economic causes); and root causes (related to fundamental aspects of macro economy, demography, consumption patterns, environmental values and access to information and democratic processes). Another step in the TDA is Governance Analysis, which describes the dynamic relations within political and social structures that underpin legislative and regulatory frameworks, decision making processes and budgetary allocations. The links between root causes and policy-level actions were also described. Discussion It was noted that the bottom-up approach of the TDA/SAP process adds value to its result and the mechanisms for engagement of stakeholders are important. Data availability is improving, for example, through funding for primary data collection in the GEF LME projects in the Western Indian Ocean and assessment type surveys in the Yellow Sea LME. The potential problem of placing all issues within the 5 LME modules was raised. There are opportunities to add to the governance module, which should not be seen as cast in stone. UN General Assembly (UNGA) Regular Process for a Global Marine Assessment Julian Barbiere, Task Manager of the TWAP LME component, UNESCO-IOC. The preparatory phase towards establishment of a Regular Process under the UN for global reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment was described. This included the establishment of a Group of Experts and an Ad Hoc Steering Group. The structure of the report and its peer review process were described. A regular process could help to focus initiatives for improved understanding of the oceans, feed knowledge into policy development, help identify suitable ways to address human activities and stimulate cooperation across disciplines and stakeholders, among others. Credibility, legitimacy and relevance are essential if an assessment is to have influence in decision-making. While there are different types of assessment, the Regular Process will be integrated across ecosystem components, industry sectors / human activities causing pressures and environmental, economic and social aspects. The results of a review of regional, supra-regional and thematic assessments were also presented. The regions used were for the purpose of grouping information, and NOT proposed as new governance or management units. The Regular Process may choose to adopt other regional units. Design features, best practice and framework and options for a Regular Process were described. It was expected that the first integrated global marine assessment to establish a baseline would be conducted in 2013-2014. Institutional arrangements and financial requirements for the Regular Process are also described in the report. Another activity was the survey of 130 assessment activities and the development of a database of assessments, which will be a valuable source of information for TWAP. Discussion The importance of the lessons from the Assessment of Assessments to TWAP was emphasized. While the main client of TWAP is GEF, it is hoped that it will also be adopted by governments, and will be of utility to the UN Regular Process. The modular approach for assessing changing states of LMEs Ken Sherman, NOAA, Rhode Island, USA Ecological criteria to determine the areal extent of LMEs are bathymetry, hydrography, productivity and trophodynamics. Goods and services of LMEs are estimated to contribute $12.6 trillion annually to the global economy. But pollution, overfishing, habitat degradation, species introductions and climate change are altering the state of these ecosystems. LMEs are global centers of efforts to address some of these issues. An approach based on 5 modules (productivity, fish and fisheries, pollution and ecosystem health, socioeconomics and governance) has been developed for assessment of LMEs. Indicators associated with each module were presented and the associated methodologies described. Included were the results of modeling of nutrient inputs to coastal areas from watersheds. Climate warming is expected to affect fisheries yields from LMEs and trends in yield for LMEs showing different degrees of warming and projected for several regions to year 2055 were presented. Examples of efforts to address fisheries resource depletion and environmental problems in a number of LMEs, based on the modular approach, were also described. Participants were informed of a number of recent publications on LMEs. Discussion It was stressed that LME boundaries are not arbitrary, and were determined using a number of criteria and case studies. There was general agreement that much more work needs to be done on the socioeconomics and governance modules, and on valuation of LME ecosystem goods and services. (Post meeting comment: Among the issues affecting ecosystem state in both LMEs and Open Ocean is acidification. LMEs are equally vulnerable and sometimes have greater vulnerability, e.g. productive upwelling areas and coastal habitats.) Methodologies and indicators for the pelagic ecosystem, including productivity Trevor Platt, Plymouth Marine Laboratory (UK) Indicators of the ocean ecosystem from remote sensing were discussed. There is global consensus (UN Declaration) that management should have an ecosystem basis and that system integrity should be maintained. Because ecosystem attributes such as health and resilience are difficult to quantify, a suite of objective ecological indicators for the pelagic ecosystem should be established and applied serially to detect changes. The outstanding value Of remote sensing for developing such metrics for the ocean ecosystem is clear. Ecological indicators from remote sensing include phenology of spring bloom, primary production, phytoplankton loss rates, carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio, phytoplankton size classes and functional types, and ecological provinces. Observations and construction of time series at different geographic scales were presented for a number of these indicators, and their application in understanding ecosystem structure and function described. Remote sensing can provide a compact, objective and cost-effective description of the pelagic ecosystem. A rich suite of indicators can be obtained from ocean colour and SST and can be used in a variety of applications (e.g. fisheries, high-seas governance, climate studies). Discussion A question was raised about the importance of sub-surface chlorophyll layers to the Earths carbon budget. As sea-water is a strong attenuator of available light, primary production is often small in sub-surface chlorophyll peaks. But the contribution of production there can be quantified if the vertical structure is taken into account. Parallel Sessions of each Working Group The LME and Open Ocean working groups met in parallel sessions starting in the afternoon of Day 1 and through the entirety of Day 2, and during a short portion of Day 3 (see Annex I for the meeting agenda). A report of these parallel sessions is given in Sections II and III. Below is the report of the Day 3 joint plenary session. DAY 3: JOINT PLENARY SESSION Presentations Mapping the cumulative impact of human activities on the oceans Benjamin S. Halpern, NCEAS, UC Santa Barbara, California, USA A research initiative to map the cumulative impacts of human activities on the worlds oceans and the results were presented. The methodology is based on an ecosystem-specific multiscale spatial model that synthesizes data on anthropogenic drivers of ecological change. The comparative vulnerability of ecosystems was judged through expert surveys to be able to directly compare the impacts. It was noted that the method compared disparate issues, and that the issues to be addressed vary by region. This regional variation in perceived issues was identified through surveys. A substantial amount of global data was assembled and gaps identified. A Cumulative Impact Score was calculated for every 1 km2 pixel of the ocean, which were then groundtruthed with in situ measures of ocean degradation. Data included 20 different ecosystems and 17 different human activities. Global cumulative impact scores show, among others, top threats to a region and the distribution of impacted areas and habitats. Regional-scale analyses, in some cases including more ecosystems and more types of data, showed similar results to the global analysis, confirming the conclusions of the global analysis. The method allows the setting of a baseline for monitoring of future changes. Global and regional-scale results were presented and hotspots of land-based impact shown. Key weaknesses of the method are: no human aspects are included; many assumptions are made about how stressors affect systems and how they combine to create a cumulative impact; and many stressors are missing from the model. It was noted that accounting for human vulnerability and relative habitat vulnerability is important and indicators that integrate socio-ecological aspects are best. Discussion The current method does not make projections of future threat - ocean acidification for example, is largely a problem with future impact, but one that is committed and with broad potential impact. Halpern noted that he would like to develop forecasts and scenarios as a part of the methodology. The Arctic Ocean showed low impact in the model as most of the threat to the region is through future impact. The objectivity of the weighting of ecosystem vulnerability was questioned - would experts in all countries have come up with the same weighting? Halpern noted that the pool of experts was global, and that thus far different divisions of experts by region had given similar results. Attempts to insert traditional knowledge were also made, although some resistance to the methodology was encountered. But he agreed that biases were always a part of expert judgment, and noted that the method tried through the use of decision theory to build objective, quantitative measures of vulnerability. A number of stressors were not included: for example, coastal harmful algal blooms, ocean acidification and hypoxia. Groundwater Working Group update Holger Treidel, UNESCO International Hydrographic Programme, Paris Holger Triedel gave a presentation on the progress made by the groundwater working group. The group has 17 experts in hydrogeology, social sciences, economics, and legal/policy and institutional expertise, with broad regional representation. The steps the groundwater group will undertake will be to develop the conceptual framework for the assessment, design the inventory and characterization of transboundary aquifers, define the extent new complementary information will be needed, define a full set of indicators to be used for the assessment, and to define the interlinkages between water systems to establish cooperation. A large set of existing and potential partners for the assessment has been identified. The indicators for the groundwater component of TWAP will be environmental status indicators, as well as preliminary process indicators. They will not include stress reduction indicators. The group has identified direct interlinkages with 3 of the 4 other water systems (lakes, rivers, and LMEs) in TWAP. The second meeting of the groundwater working group will take place 14-16 April 2010. Discussion The issue about the extent of linkage between groundwater and the Open Ocean was raised (might exist because of geology of the area). The impact of climate on groundwater depends on the type of aquifers; there are direct and indirect impacts on shallow and deep aquifers. Groundwater flow to LMEs occurs through river basins. It would be of interest to see how the nutrient modeling work could be interfaced with groundwater (related to baseflow, future projections and pollutants). In addition, examining future scenarios of nutrient loading and water use for irrigation and how this could change in the future presents opportunities for linking the LMEs and Groundwater components. Closing Joint Plenary The main points of the closing plenary discussion were: The difference between metrics and indicators and the need to evaluate metrics was noted. The assessment should have desired targets or states against which the indicator could be compared to help guide interventions and measure progress. It was felt that thresholds and a traffic light system to do a comparative analysis and sound warning bells would have to be adopted. There was some concern that in ecosystems it was in some cases difficult to know what corrective action was appropriate, and that in systems and with threats that were slowly changing, the greatest future threats might be lost in an indicator framework. Time trends and future projections should also be examined (MA scenarios have been used for projections), including for sea level rise and climate change impacts. It was questioned to what level TWAP should focus on governance process indicators - suggesting that the indicator should evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, accountability, transparency, equitability and inclusiveness of governance actions. Indicators that note only whether a process or committee has been put in place miss the full story, including the story of social justice for example. It was proposed that GEF should be consulted on this matter. CLOSING SESSION Keith Alverson chaired the closing plenary session, noting that major challenges lay ahead in the TWAP project. For the Open Ocean working group, this involved continuing their work on indicators, and in particular identifying those that are tractable and converting scientific metrics into simple indicators for the benefit of GEF. For the LME working group this involved taking the large body of work that has already been done in LMEs and determining what would be useful for TWAP, including identifying a subset of tractable indicators. It was suggested that the LMEs and Rivers groups should meet, and that the groups workspace on the TWAP website be open so each group could see what the others are doing and be able to exchange information freely though the workspace. Participants were informed that the TWAP Interlinkage working group will meet again in July 2010, and each water system group is to select a representative to this group. The need to bring obvious partners (such as FAO, GESAMP) into the project was reiterated. The next joint meeting of the LME and Open Ocean groups will be held in June 2010 at GRID-Arendal, Norway. Joan Fabres of GRID-Arendal made a brief presentation on the proposed venue for the meeting. The draft methodology reports will be presented at this meeting. The coordinators of the LMEs and Open Ocean components thanked participants for attending the meeting and for their contribution to the project. The Chair also thanked participants and the meeting closed at 16:00 on Friday 5 February 2010. Section II: LMEs Working Group DAY 1 Opening remarks by Chair Present: Ole Vestergaard, Villy Christensen, James Oliver, Louisa Wood, Rebecca Klaus, Sybil Seitzinger, Salif Diop, Ken Sherman, Robin Mahon, Liana Taluae-McManus, Ben Halpern, Zhongyuan Chen, Julian Barbiere, Sherry Heileman At some sessions: Elina Rautalahti, Igor Belkin, Trevor Platt The LME session was chaired by Julian Barbiere of UNESCO-IOC. He provided the following guidance to the group: The methodology should include four types of indicators: environmental state, pressure (driver), socio-economic and governance indicators, within the five modules. These should be simple indicators, which should be based on available regional and global data sources. It is not the intention to collect new data. Indicators of both natural systems and of human impacts should be included. Composite indicators should also be considered where feasible. Lead institutions in each LME have to be identified for potential partnerships. Linkages with terrestrial freshwater transboundary systems (rivers, lakes and groundwater) need to be defined. The methodology should include the following cross-cutting issues: climate, productivity, nutrients and mercury. Discussion It was suggested that the draft methodology report should be sent to partners and other experts for peer review, but the view was expressed that the WG members are all experts and external review would delay the completion of the methodology. As GEF requires that the methodology be validated by stakeholders, the Chair proposed that the annual IOC LME consultation be used as a forum for soliciting comments on the methodology, as part of the validation process. Another possibility for validation of the methodology would be to seek comments from stakeholders in one of the active GEF-funded LME projects. The need to be open and transparent was emphasized, and in this respect, it was agreed to use the virtual platform provided for the TWAP project through IWLEARN to make all documents available and open for comments. The productivity and fish and fisheries modules were already well-developed, and one of the challenges is to determine what is worth measuring. On the other hand, the other three modules required more work in terms of identification of issues, indicators and methodology. The question was raised about why hotspots should be included in the methodology, as this was felt to defeat the purpose of the ecosystem approach. The response was that GEF has indicated that hotspots should be included; they are a major area of concern if they have transboundary impacts. The Chair presented a template to guide the discussions, but it was thought that this would not work for socioeconomics and governance, which represented the human dimension and were cross-cutting. Mention was made of the work of Hoagland and Jin (2006) on accounting for economic activities in LMEs. As the purpose of the assessment is to influence policy and change, response indicators are also needed; these will be included in the governance module. Presentations The session included a number of presentations, most of which centered around the five LME modules (productivity, fish and fisheries, pollution and ecosystem health, socioeconomics and governance). Experts presenting on the modules were previously asked to include priority issues, drivers, scale, possible indicators for the TWAP purpose, methodologies, data sources and gaps in their respective presentations, each of which was allotted 15 minutes followed by about 30 minutes for discussion. This was a scoping exercise to see what is currently available or in development that could contribute to the TWAP methodology. Indicator template S. Heileman, Coordinator, LMEs component, UNESCO-IOC A preliminary template to be used for description of the selected indicators was presented (Annex III). LME assessment units and boundaries Joan Fabres, GRID-Arendal Variability (e.g. in hydrography, bathymetry and human impacts) within individual LMEs was emphasized. Other existing approaches to classification of ocean areas, which have scientific credibility, were presented geomorphic provinces, marine ecoregions such as of North America, biogeographic classification such as in the OSPAR maritime area, and GOODS (for Open Ocean). Some subcategories are based on geomorphological features, which affect the availability of natural resources and therefore should be considered in defining assessment units. A higher resolution is needed closer to the coast where greater measures are usually required to address existing problems. The need to take scale into consideration was emphasized. Tools and means to increase resolution are available. Mention was made of the oil and mineral sectors in Norway, and the need for indicators for these sectors in the LME approach. Discussion The WG should strive for indicators that could be scaled from subregions to basins and LMEs. Previously smaller scales were used, but with the move to marine spatial planning, a different scale is used. In the USA, regional activity is considered within the scale of LMEs. Some indicators such as chlorophyll measurements are scalable. It was noted that there are different ways to aggregate information, and it was suggested that wherever possible, we should work with the pixel scale, as mentioned in the productivity presentation by T. Platt. (Post meeting comment: Biogeochemical regions/provinces should be included. Temporal time scales should be included so that we have a view into the future rather than just now, otherwise this project will not help assess future concerns.) Fish and fisheries module Villy Christensen, University of British Colombia (UBC) Fisheries Center, Vancouver, Canada The declining trend in global catches and impact of climate change on fisheries was illustrated. An important driver for change in fisheries resources is fishing effort, but environmental conditions also affect fish productivity through their impacts on primary productivity (e.g. impacts of nutrient loading). Data sources include fisheries independent surveys, e.g. from some GEF projects and the Nansen project (data availability from the latter is uncertain). The WG has to look at how it can use these for TWAP assessment. Fisheries dependent indicators include trends in catch and catch composition and in trophic level (which is of interest to CBD). Other data sources are Fishbase, Sealifebase and a joint project between them Aquamaps (aquamaps.org), in which computer-generated predictions of natural occurrence of marine species, based on their environmental tolerance, are produced. FAO, Regional Fisheries Management Organizations and the Sea Around Us Project (SAUP) of the UBC Fisheries Center are also important data sources for fisheries. Areas in which important data gaps exist include: pollutants; fishing effort; fisheries economic and social information; coastal zone in global ocean circulation models (GOCM) - the Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) model coupled with LME ecosystem models may serve as a bridge between GOCM and Globio (which predicts how future uses may impact nutrient loading). Fishing effort data are also limited, and work is in progress to develop an effort database through SAUP. Discussion It was suggested that one way to deal with coastal chlorophyll is to examine coastal loading of nutrients coupled with fisheries. The NEWS model could help to address the poor resolution of satellite images in the coastal zone. In situ chlorophyll data can be calibrated with satellite information. At the LME scale daily chlorophyll and primary productivity data are available from NOAA. Consumption and trade patterns are an important driver in fisheries. The pattern of consumption of high and low value fish is shifting, and accounts for exploitation patterns. This needs to be coupled with the production from aquaculture and the feed issue, and how this affects the fisheries indicators. The NEWS group is looking at impact of coastal aquaculture compared with land-based inputs of nutrients. Pollution is also a driver of change in fisheries, as is habitat destruction, which falls in the pollution and ecosystem health module. The intensity of trawling is also an important driver. The question was raised about evaluation of the indicators for each module. This will be based on the priority issues, which are to be defined. The indicators chosen should be those that give the most information. Strengths and weaknesses of the indicators need to be evaluated. It is also important for the group to examine what is already available and identify the gaps. Pollution K. Sherman, NOAA, Rhode Island, USA This presentation was scheduled to be given by GESAMP. However, as GESAMP was not represented at the meeting, Sherman agreed to make a presentation on this topic (also included ecosystem health). Indicators used by the US Environmental Protection Agency for the coastal condition report were introduced. These include Dissolved Oxygen, Coastal Wetland Loss, Eutrophic Condition, Sediment Contamination and Fish Tissue Contaminants. Some of these indicators lend themselves to global integration. Others are not taken on board because they are expensive to monitor (e.g. sediment and benthic index). Mercury should be considered in fish tissue contaminants. Another indicator is Multiple Marine Ecological Disturbances, which need data mining especially concerning edible tissue and human health. The Global NEWS model could make a significant contribution to the pollution module. A big issue is dead zones and algal blooms, especially related to agricultural practices. GEF has a big interest in controlling nutrient over-enrichment. Discussion The next version of the model (NEWS2USE) will look at how loading translates into impacts reduced productivity, oxygen and fisheries productivity. A GEF MSP project is being planned, which will apply this model to many regions. The threshold for shifting to dead zones varies in different regions, and this will give inaccurate results. There is need to account for variability among regions, which NEWS2USE is addressing by incorporating hydrodynamics and other factors that could account for some of the variability. Some databases are available for mangroves, seagrass and coral reefs in the Guinea Current of West Africa. The carbon index is a mirror of pollution loading. State of benthos is also important in pollution module. Linkage of benthic habitats with satellite data and modeling using temperature data sets could show potential linkage with climate change issues. Pressure indicators are also needed. Some state indicators in one module are pressure indicators for other modules. Pressure indicators will be required for the level 2 assessment. There will be a time lag between pressure indicators and state indicators. If a relationship is not evident between the two, there will be need to ask why. There will also be differences between developing and developed countries due to differences in changes in watersheds and pollution transport to estuaries. There will be a time lag for impacts to be felt. Other potential indicators are species distribution (and change over time) and species diversity and abundance related to IUCN work. Change in biodiversity in two points in time is good information, especially if within the same spatial system of LMEs. If this is only available for one point in time, it could be used as a baseline. Deltas, as related to sea level rise, are a major issue, and will be included in the LMEs component. Deltas and estuaries are important for interlinkages between LMEs and terrestrial systems, and common indicators should be identified with the freshwater groups. The impact of sea level rise on society should also be included. DAY 2 The Chair reminded the meeting that the client is GEF, which needs the TWAP assessment to track its interventions using simple feasible and pragmatic indicators. Presentations Marine habitats as indicators of ecosystem health Louisa Wood, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK Priority issues are habitat loss and degradation (and associated loss of ecosystem goods and services) and climate change impacts. Drivers of change as well as ecosystem connectivity and impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and on socioeconomics of coastal populations were illustrated. Marine and coastal habitats (coral reefs, seagrass, mangroves) are of international priority to the CBD, MEA, WSSD and the Ramsar Convention. Potential indicators include extent of mangrove, coral reefs and seagrass habitats. Datasets on habitats extent, including global, are available from UNEP-WCMC; these are being updated. Another potential indicator is coral diseases (global coral disease data base is available) and a number of other marine indicators (e.g. invasive alien species) under the 2010 Biodiversity Indicators Partnership to track global biodiversity trends. This has been established with GEF support. Gaps and challenges related to marine habitat data include: unavailability of comprehensive datasets for specific LMEs, lack of measures of habitat quality and lack of spatially explicit time series. Priorities for future habitat mapping were also mentioned. Discussion Concern was expressed over the fact that the datasets are not spatially explicit for current use or to show trends over time. The fact that data are compiled from different sources with different methodology for compiling data raised concern about credibility, comparability, interpretation of data, etc. Data on direct measures of habitat cover and productivity and their change over time are needed; this could be linked to fisheries production as well as to the impacts of trawling on soft corals and sponges (a potential indicator). Other coastal habitats such as river deltas, estuaries, coastal lagoons and dunes should be considered in the TWAP methodology within the LMEs component. It was pointed out that habitat mapping is based on geomorphological features, and not on cover. Therefore, more ground-truthing is required to validate mapping. How to get real baselines and trends in terms of habitats and be able to use this in decision-making is a challenge (would be good if baselines could be obtained from historical datasets). Having snapshots through time is an important component, which is also related to the issue of repeatability of the assessment. The issue of scale is also crucial. It was proposed that the WG suggest to GEF that resources are needed to repeat snapshots in the future so that trends could be obtained. One expert disagreed that a snapshot will be scientifically credible for a baseline assessment, especially if the data are fragmentary. It was pointed out that the data are not fragmentary, but amalgamated from different sources. Further, these datasets are used extensively by others (scientists, NGOs, UN organizations), as they are the only ones available globally on marine habitats. The group has to use what is available but state up front what the data quality issues and gaps are. Much information already exists for a baseline assessment (e.g. from GEO, MA, GIWA), but there is need for comparability using standard methods and indicators, as data from different sources are difficult to reconcile. The GEO data portal was mentioned as an important source of data. It was suggested that relevance of habitats to livelihoods should also be assessed. Countries where actual mapping is being done should be identified, although the methodology varies and mapping is at a smaller scale (non-global). These datasets might be useful for TWAP. Habitats data could also be used to characterize hotspots. It was suggested that the TWAP assessment should focus on where good data are available. (Post meeting comment: Should include a rate to introduce time, i.e., loss or growth, e.g., calcification/erosion ratio of corals would be a useful indicator of coral reef growth as would extent of bleaching.) Species assessment as an indicator of ecosystem health, trends and as a tool for policy and decision-making James Oliver, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland The IUCN Red List index of species survival was presented as a biodiversity indicator. Challenges for biodiversity assessment include lack of a baseline against which to measure change and of a single metric to measure biodiversity or changes in biodiversity. IUCN Red List evaluates all species types, not just threatened ones, and there are regular publications focusing on groups of species, themes (e.g. climate), or regions (e.g. Mediterranean). The Red List is the world's most comprehensive inventory of the global conservation status of plant and animal species, with an online interactive database. The Global Marine Species Assessments (GSMA) using the Red list methodology feeds into other assessment processes and programmes, including in a number of regions. To date, all vertebrates (including fishes), all whales, seabirds and turtles, and all corals, mangroves and seagrasses have undergone assessment. Other assessment work includes monitoring of herbivorous reef fishes as an indicator of reef resilience. There is good possibility for collaboration between IUCN and the LME and TDA processes. Discussion A traffic light system is used to indicate the status of marine habitats. For particular marine species, time series data are lacking and assessment lags behind that of terrestrial species. IUCN aims to have more accurate time series over the next few years. It was suggested that functional groups be used at the global scale, rather than species level, which is more daunting. Integrated LME assessment: Socioeconomic indicators Liana Talaue-McManus, Division of Marine Affairs and Policy, Rosenstiel School of marine and Atmospheric Science, Univ. Miami, Florida LMEs were presented as socio-ecological systems. Human institutions have both nested and non-nested properties while ecological systems maintain their emergent properties within a nested hierarchy. It was noted that human vulnerability is not very visible in the DPSIR framework. A Sustainable livelihoods framework was presented. The scale for livelihoods is smaller (households), which is not usually examined as indicators are usually aggregated at the country level (e.g. GDP). A number of indicators for which data are usually available at country level were shown. Some human wellbeing datasets are available worldwide at country level (e.g. from WHO). A map of human population at 10 m elevation coastal zone, superimposed on sea level rise was presented (to show vulnerability). World Bank world development indicators were disaggregated to show a number of variables by region (e.g. fertilizer consumption by regions). Also presented were trends in exports/imports of high value fin species in developing and developed countries, to illustrate that global consumption patterns are a driver of overexploitation. A number of databases were mentioned, which will be of use to TWAP. Economic value at the country level could be assembled, and a question was posed to the group by the presenter as to whether the finer scale is of interest to GEF. Discussion Caution was advised in the interpretation of export and export patterns (as they might not be always sustainable). Reconstruction of artisanal fisheries and data on food consumption by local population are available for 50 countries. Also available by countries are estimates of the value of fisheries, etc, which could be aggregated by LME. Vulnerability indicators are needed. A database of material flux from agriculture is available, and includes sediments, nutrients, heavy metals (important for link to food web). Vulnerability to heavy metals is important in estuaries compared to offshore. The group should consider indicators of livelihoods and human wellbeing, as there is need to link LME work to issues of interest to WSSD, MDGs, etc. While fisheries catch is an indicator, a country could have high fish catches but still experience poverty and food insecurity. There is need to try to associate human (users) behaviour with ecosystem health and how this is mediated by governance. Need to look at trade, consumption patterns and globalization. The impact of policy has to be resolved at the sub-national level rather than economic sectors. Global comparison of human condition would be a useful addition to TWAP, if data are available. A significant gap is evaluation of goods and services of LMEs; this is an important socio-economic indicator and is seriously underestimated. Income is a good indicator of value of goods and services, but for the fisheries sector there are multiple sources of income that are non-fisheries sources. (Post meeting comment: Could consider a map of fish protein consumption and/or dependence as sole protein source.) Governance Robin Mahon, Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, Barbados Governance trends and principles were briefly reviewed. Limited progress has been made with the LME governance module and some of the proposed indicators such as stakeholder participation and adaptive management are complex indicators. LMEs might be sufficiently diverse and heterogeneous that substantially different governance approaches may be needed in different LMEs. Or there might be groups of LMEs within which one might take similar approaches to governance. To investigate the governance diversity of LMEs, 40 variables (such as geopolitical, oceanographic/ecological, World Bank national governance indicators, fisheries landings, etc.) were analyzed. Because of the high degree of heterogeneity, there might be a need to look at the individual LME level. An LME governance model that addresses the range of concerns must be able to accommodate the diversity of governance situations found among LMEs and even within LMEs. An LME governance framework based on a multi-level policy cycle and metrics of governance effectiveness were discussed and illustrated for the Caribbean LME. The policy cycle could be used as a framework for developing and monitoring governance indicators. Discussion The view was expressed by one expert that the work presented has little relevance in terms of indicators in LMEs that are moving ahead with the establishment of LME commissions. The presenter had a different view, which he noted was shared by other experts in LME projects elsewhere. It was felt that evaluation of governance has to move beyond simply the establishment or existence of commissions, committees, etc. and examine their actual performance. Further, the lower levels of the governance cycle have not received sufficient attention. There is need to determine how to apply these concepts worldwide and to link them to targets and goals, which would add value to this work. The need for concrete indicators (including indicators of governance activity) and to link them to goals and targets were stressed. This led to the question about what are the indicators of successful governance. The difficulty in rating institutions performance was also pointed out. One of the issues that GEF is looking at is the capacity of member states to jointly address LME problems, which should be considered in developing the methodology. It was suggested that GEF be advised that more effort is needed in researching the effectiveness of interlinkages among organizations. Linking integrated assessment to management user needs Ole Vestergaard, Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Branch, Division for Environmental Policy Implementation, UNEP, Nairobi Some considerations for TWAP and future GRAME investments were presented. These initiatives should move beyond existing assessments and assist countries to move to more management-oriented assessment to influence policy and ecosystem-based management. Assessments should be more strategic to influence change and indicators should be smarter (to show if management is successful) there should be a move from static to dynamic indicators, and in particular response indicators to measure the effects of management interventions. Baselines plus scenarios of ecosystem change and how governments respond should be considered and integrated assessment should be at scales relevant to informing upstream ecosystem-based management intervention and assessing downstream effects. UNEP ecosystem management framework was presented. It is based on the links between drivers, ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing (with pressure, state and response indicators). Closer feedback loops are required between assessment design and ecosystem-based management needs. Further, TWAP could be used to provide frameworks for more iterative use of assessment information in management planning. Integrated ecosystem-based management focuses on sustaining ecosystems as well as sustaining the economy. It was noted that a lot more needs to be done in LMEs, including new types of indicators to be developed, including economic indicators. A number of management response indicators were presented (based on a publication by Alder et al. 200, Aggregate performance in managing marine ecosystems of 53 maritime countries, Marine Policy). Reference was made to the required TWAP project deliverables, notably Output 1: Stakeholder-validated methodology for the assessment. and Output 4: Strategy and recommendations for operational use of assessment outputs. To address this need, a possible TWAP Review and User Forum of regional/national planners and managers working in different contexts, including in developing countries, was proposed to test-drive and provide feedback on TWAP methodologies and indicator outputs. The issue of scale was briefly discussed, including with respect to optimizing model projections for local management. National and regional scales should be considered, e.g. current challenges in site selection and evaluation of closed areas based on broader-scale aggregated fisheries statistic. Indicators that pick up these scales are needed. Some ideas and suggestions for TWAP development were proposed. A gap identified in the TWAP Lake assessment framework was linking feedback from policy and management into assessments. UNEP capacity building for assessments is targeted at national /regional level implemented via Regional Seas, which could support TWAP capacity building efforts. Closer linkages between GOOS Coastal Observations and future regional assessments were also proposed. Discussion Mention was made of the MPA effectiveness toolkit and methodologies and the IUCN/TNC Toolbox. These tools, however, are not addressing the referred scale-issue. The required level of data is hard to acquire. It was noted that while global indices are useful they need more data. Emphasis should be placed on national/regional scale information to inform national/regional scale ecosystem management. Database-driven LME ecosystem models Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia Fisheries Center Ecosystem models are data-hungry, and use a suit of databases from the Sea Around Us Project and partners. These models are driven by databases and are updated when new data becomes available. The modeling process and data requirements and data sources for a number of parameters in an Ecopath model were illustrated. Among the major products are balanced Ecopath with Ecosim models for all LMEs along with the time series data. Ecosystem carrying capacity evaluation is in progress. Other work in progress includes a spatial global model ( resolution), models for all EEZs for use with the Global Ocean Economics project and update of the Fish to 2020 study. Discussion The meeting was informed that projections to year 2020 are based on the four standard scenarios used in the Global Environment Outlook 4 and the Millennium Assessment. The Global Ocean Economics project describes the fisheries sector for many countries cost efficiency, end price (off vessel and end product price), etc. This information will be useful for TWAP assessment. The need to identify models and what question they could answer was mentioned. Interlinkages with other systems: Nutrient Flux Model Sybil Seitzinger, IGBP, Stockholm The global hydrological cycle and how it affects rivers, lakes and transport to coastal zone and offshore areas was described. Imposed on this cycle are changes in land use and other factors that modify the hydrological cycle. The Global NEWS (nutrient export from watersheds) model was described, including input parameters and associated databases. The model includes datasets (of relevance to TWAP) from >5000 watersheds globally. Nutrient inputs are modified by runoff, land use, climate change, etc. Model results include input of N, P, C and Si (dissolved inorganic, dissolved organic and particulate) to coastal areas and LMEs and source attribution of export. A global view of, for example, dissolved inorganic N (DIN) input to coastal waters shows a lot of spatial variation globally, with some hotspots. Nutrient export trajectories to years 2030 and 2050 and under climate change were also shown. Model outputs for DIN have been partitioned by LMEs to show the load to the entire LME and relative source attribution of DIN export by LMEs. Few quantitative estimates of the relationships between nutrient loading and coastal ecosystem effects exist. This is being investigated by the NEWS2USE working group and, when completed, could produce useful indicators for TWAP (e.g. of non-diatom production, which can cause harmful algal blooms). Discussion Terrestrial models could be linked with marine models under the four scenarios to give a truly integrated view, including of the impact on fisheries. Population is an important driver of nutrient export to coastal areas. The scenarios include considerations of policy, economics, human behaviour, etc, with a lot of useful information behind them. This would be valuable for the TWAP first level assessment. Estuarine ecohealth: issues, indicators and possible approaches Zhongyuan Chen, State Key Laboratory of Estuarine Coastal Research, East China Normal University The focus of IGBP/Land Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) programme was explained and issues related to the mega deltas of Asia discussed (geological conceptual models and application to future vulnerability; monsoon circulation and relation to deltaic/coastal hazards). In the rivers of Asia nutrients are closely associated with sediment load (turbidity), and there is dramatically increasing nutrients in last decade in some river basins. Impoundment of water upstream has reduced sediments (e.g. in the Yangtze coast), which in turn has caused shoreline retreat at the river mouth (Chao Phraya River, Thailand) through insufficient sediment to supply coastal demand. The effects of alterations in nutrients, sediment and freshwater inputs into coastal areas include increase in red tides, weakened self-assimilation of pollutants and eutrophication. The concentrations of some pollutants such as heavy metals in coastal lagoons show increasing trends, and might be linked to pancreatic cancer and other related illnesses. Drivers causing acidification of estuaries were presented (Ecohealth pulse). Indicators include red tides, dissolved silicon (impact on primary productivity), changes in estuarine diatom species and sediment load. Gaps include information on biogeochemical properties and land-estuary-ocean interaction, as well as scale and data gaps. Discussion The question was asked about possible areas in the region to test the TWAP methodology. There are rivers for which data are available, e.g. Yangzse River has data over 100 years, where the methodology could be tested. DAY 3 The Chair reiterated the need to identify spatial and temporal scale indicators and the importance of identifying data sources and gaps. The presentations by S. Seitzinger and Z. Chen are very relevant to the issue of linkages with other systems, and there is need to reach out to the Rivers and Open Ocean groups to come up with indicators for key interlinkages. He stated that the presentations and discussions provided a good scoping and landscape vision and the group now needed to come up with a list of indicators. He referred to the criteria for selection and rating of indicators as described in the IOC manual (UNESCO 2006. A Handbook for Measuring the Progress and Outcomes of Integrated Coastal and Ocean Management. IOC Manuals and Guides, 46. Paris, UNESCO): CriteriaExplanationRelevance to ICOMDoes the indicator measure, and is sensitive to, socioeconomic, governance, cultural and human health phenomena and trends that are directly or indirectly related to the state of the coast as measures of a healthy or unhealthy state, impacting pressures and behaviours, and policy responses to achieve sustainable coastal development?Data readiness and feasibilityIs the indicator based on readily available and routinely collected data, or data collectable at a reasonable cost-benefit ratio and in a timely manner, with sufficient spatial and time coverage and quality?Conceptual and methodological soundnessIs the indicator conceptually and methodologically well-founded, representative of established approaches and standards by the scientific community, international and regional organizations and national and local practices?Management responsivenessIs the indicator responsive to management interventions related to key policy goals and objectives for the coastal area, and could it be measured in relation to progress towards agreed targets and timetables?Transparency and understandabilityCan the indicator be readily communicated to policy-makers, eventually as an early warning signal, and understood by the stakeholders and the public in a non-scientific form and express an unambiguous message about the progress of ICOM and the state of the coast? Preliminary list of indicators A list of indicators based on key LME and other publications were compiled by S. Heileman under the five LME modules and presented to the group. Below is the revised list following discussion by the group. In some cases, one of the criteria for inclusion was the availability of global datasets: Productivity Water-column structure Photosynthetically active radiation Transparency Chlorophyll a Primary production change globally available from remote sensing Sea surface temperature climate change; available Salinity Sigma T Oceanographic variability (water masses; fronts). It was noted that zooplankton data are fragmentary, and might not be suitable for a global assessment. Fish & fisheries Marine Trophic Index (Trophic Level of catch) a CBD indicator Fishing in Balance (FIB) index Footprint of fisheries (by country) Trend in fishing effort Marine mammal/fisheries overlap Fisheries production/mariculture ratio Trend in pelagic/demersal fish catch ratio Catch value Subsidies in fishing sector The following may or may not be available in time for TWAP: Predicted catch potential 2050/2005 Catch relative to potential catch (carrying capacity) - in progress, gap to be flagged Jobs in the fishing sector Global ocean economic study #species reviewed by IUCN Red List/#species potentially to be reviewed for consideration. Change in status of threatened species Pollution and Ecosystem Health Trophic transfer of contaminants (mercury in selected fish species mercury a cross-cutting issue in TWAP). No global database- this is a gap in all 5 TWAP systems Frequency and effect of harmful algal blooms (regional HAB SE Asia; IOC global database) Multiple marine ecological disturbances diseases of organisms and effects on humans Habitats - coral, seagrass, mangroves (UNEP-WCMC, WRI, Reefcheck, regional e.g. AGGRA) N:P:Si ratios (available globally) N, P, C,Si (by form) and particulates loads modeling, available globally Dissolved oxygen, no comprehensive global coverage Percentage habitat extent change in key habitats (define key habitats); Change in coverage/time Percentage of the worlds sea mounts (Other habitats to be added) Percentage of the LME designated as Marine Protected Areas - data available for 163 countries and could be amalgamated. (note: Yale group to be consulted. IUCN target 10% EEZ; MPAs need other qualifiers to be useful indicator, e.g. of effectiveness) Environmental Performance Index - associated indexes Socioeconomics Socioeconomic index (HDI) Fishery and aquaculture index Tourism index (marine tourism vs other?) Ship and oil index (oil industry OSPAR, GRID-A) Marine industry activity index Marine recreational activities- income and jobs- Global economics study Importance of smallscale fisheries to be considered Cultural heritage? Impact of overfishing on fishing households (small scale, artisanal): a gap Management response indicators (presented and discussed in Alder et al. 2009) Biodiversity-related indicators Marine protected area coverage Investment to marine protected areas Change in EEZ area trawled Ecological components of mariculture sustainability index Seabird protection index Marine mammal protection index Value-related indicators Landed value relative to GDP Fishmeal consumption by mariculture Compliance with the FAO code of conduct Context-adjusted fisheries statistics indicator Good to Good & Bad subsidies ratio Job-related indicators Catch relative to fuel consumption Subsides relative to landed value Socioeconomic components of mariculture sustainability index Also mentioned: WorldBank governance indicators SOURCES GEF International Waters Indicators for Developing a Global Benefits Index of Changing States of Large Marine Ecosystems. K. Sherman et al. 2008 Indicators of Changing States of Large Marine Ecosystems. K. Sherman et al. 2009 Filling Gaps in LME Nitrogen Loadings Forecast for 64 LMEs. S. Seitzinger et al. 2008 Models of the Worlds Large Marine Ecosystems. V. Christensen et al. (eds). 2008 Fisheries in Large Marine Ecosystems: Descriptions and Diagnoses. D. Pauly et al. 2008 Accounting for Marine Economic Activities in Large Marine Ecosystems. P. Hoagland & Di Jin 2008 Aggregate performance in managing marine ecosystems of 53 maritime countries. J. Alder et al. 2009, Marine Policy Discussion The main points discussed are as follows: Some objection was expressed by one member about dissociating the productivity module into individual indicators (since productivity is in itself an indicator). The presenter pointed out that the LME publications listed a number of indicators under each module, including the productivity module, and these were being presented for discussion. Primary productivity is an important driver of life in the ocean, and is affected by climate change, which needs to be considered. An indicator is change in primary productivity. An important step is to move from metrics to indicators. The level of detail for indicators has to be agreed. The question was asked about what aspects of governance is of interest to GEF (e.g. World Bank governance indicators). It was pointed out that governance data are fragmented, with no global database on governance. In response to the reference to the work already done on LME governance (paper by Juda and Hennessy 2001), the need to go beyond establishment of a governance body (mechanism) and look at process and performance in a dynamic, not static approach was stressed, although the many measures of complexity make this difficult. If GEF is concerned about MDGs, there is a need to have more detailed indicators. This need not be offensive to national governments and could be built into the TDA/SAP process. The Chair suggested that existing TDA/SAP documents should be examined for governance indicators (a task for the group). The end results of governance should also be examined (e.g. in available case studies). The fisheries and productivity modules already have established indicators. While some indicators are applicable at the global level, there are impacts at lower scales that need to be taken into consideration. Trade in fisheries products might provide more accurate data than landings. Oceanographic fronts are most stable and it is not appropriate to include them under ocean variability. UNEP-WCMC has global datasets on habitats, and while quality issues were raised, the same applies to fisheries data. The habitat datasets are based on Landsat satellite data on geomorphological features, which could be backed up with point data such as LME projects, Reefcheck data (point dataset of coral cover at the national level). At global level the simplest indicator is habitat extent (or change in extent), although a more useful indicator is habitat quality, but data are not available. It was suggested that the best available data be used for the baseline and issues on data quality be flagged. The data applied should be geo-referenced as far as possible to make them applicable for future management planning purposes. The group was urged to focus on what it can do. GEF needs to be able to tell where the biggest threats are, and how these change over time. It was proposed and generally agreed that socio-economics and governance be included for each issue under the other modules (as cross-cutting) environmental state should be linked to socio-economics and governance in an overarching conceptual framework. Such a framework (e.g. DPSIR or a variant, Millennium Assessment framework) will be useful for communication of the assessment results and indicators could also be allocated under this framework. This framework should be flexible and should as far as possible be linked across with the TWAP Open Ocean, Groundwater and River systems. One member objected to introducing another framework, as the 5-LME module approach was already available as a framework. It was pointed out, however, that an overarching framework will include the LME modules and help to better integrate the five modules. Fisheries capture these linkages well. A number of aspects are missing from the 5-module framework and the group felt a more holistic view is required. Also, inclusion of management response indicators in the TWAP methodology was encouraged (can be linked with governance indicators). Jobs in the fishing sector (or change in number of jobs) as an indicator do not include small-scale artisanal fisheries (but this is currently being done). The impact of fisheries on habitats is an important issue, but there is no global database. Mention was made of the World Resources Institute work on habitats (an approach analogous to that of Halperns mapping of human impacts). Economic value of LMEs It is hard to link some sectors to ocean condition (e.g. tourism value could be high because of infrastructure and not because of ocean condition). How economic value is distributed across the population is an important consideration (with respect to poverty). (Post meeting comments: Carbonate chemistry parameters should be included to assess acidification. Water-column structure is a complex issue. As the first step, the uppermost element of the water-column structure - the upper mixed later- could be isolated, which is by far the most important layer in terms of productivity. TS-indices of water masses and fronts are good indicators of the state of the ocean. Density itself is not a useful indicator of productivity. Usually, it is used in estimates of depth [= thickness] of the upper mixed layer, which is an important indicator of productivity.) Next Steps The immediate next steps (before June meeting) for the LMEs Working Group are: Teleconference between UNESCO-IOC and GEF (Al Duda) to clarify outstanding issues (including related to overarching framework and approach to governance indicators); Development of an overarching framework that will encompass the five LME modules; Continuation of work by the experts on the methodology (including refining the subset of indicators and preparation of the indicators templates for the selected indicators). Experts to liaise with and send their inputs to the LMEs coordinator; Identification of key datasets related to the selected indicators; Identification of partners at global and regional (LMEs) levels and their respective roles; Work on key interlinkages (and indicators) between LMEs and the other TWAP components. Expert from LMEs WG to be assigned to the Interlinkage WG; Revision of work plan; Preparation and convening of second joint meeting (Arendal, Norway, June 2010). Section III: Open Ocean Working Group Introduction and Working Method The Open Ocean Working group met in parallel sessions to further develop the open ocean assessment methodology. Keith Alverson and Albert Fischer co-chaired the Open Ocean working group session, and the participants started with short micropresentations of their research, focused on science information for environmental assessment or management, with some examples or ideas for indicators. These micropresentations can be found on the meeting website:  HYPERLINK "http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1" http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1 Table 1: Experts in the open ocean working group and work presented NameAffiliationWork presentedTrevor Platt *Dalhousie Univ.Remotely-sensed indicators of primary productivitySydney LevitusNOAA/NCDCGlobal ocean heat content Global ocean salinity Sonia BattenSAHFOSindicators of plankton: abundance, timing, compositionCarol TurleyPMLindicators of ocean acidification and future impactChristian WildGeoBio Center, University of MnichAssessments of coral reefsEric LindstromNASA Physical OceanographyIndices of open-ocean variability linked to climate, indicators of the state of the ocean observing system and potential for future developmentSanae ChibaJAMSTECDecadal-to-multi-decadal changes in open ocean marine ecosystems, impact of changes in seasonalityRicardo SantosUniversity of the AzoresSeamounts: fisheries and managementIgor BelkinUniversity of Rhode IslandOcean fronts for indicatorsPatrick LehodeyCLSCLIOTOP indicators of top-level predators in the open oceanBen Halpern *UCSBMapping the cumulative impact of human activities on the oceans*These two presentations were given in combined plenary but were relevant to the open ocean discussions The rest of this report on the outcomes of the TWAP Open Ocean Working Group meeting will follow the development of ideas during the meeting, which focused in turn on: refining the top-level questions to be addressed by the assessment; the development of a preliminary assessment framework including global indicators, a map of state onto vulnerability, consideration of assessment areas, the state of knowledge/uncertainty, the state of observations, and governance arrangements; development of the variables and indicators relevant to each top-level question; and the challenges and future work. Top-level questions for the Open Ocean Assessment The participants noted that the vast majority of the open oceans were extra-territorial, part of a global commons (only 30% of the surface of the open ocean is within a national Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ, with much of these EEZs contained within LMEs). Ocean currents and marine life moved freely between territorial and non-territorial waters. The state of the ocean through teleconnections could provoke distant environmental problems (drought, local sea level rise). For all of these reasons, virtually all open-ocean-related environmental issues were transboundary in nature, and so should be considered in TWAP. The participants started with a strawman list of themes that was presented to them by the TWAP Open Ocean coordinator, Albert Fischer. These were: Sea level rise and coastal inundation / vulnerability open-ocean-related changes in climate and precipitation patterns High-seas fisheries / highly mobile species Unique open ocean habitats (seamounts, deep-sea corals, etc.) Marine Protected Areas and governance Biodiversity Open ocean ecosystem changes and/or geographical shifts Pollution from land-based and ocean-based sources shipping and commercial activity Ocean acidification Deoxygenation with societal vulnerability and governance arrangements a part of each theme A preliminary discussion of these themes and the indicators that would be useful to make assessments under these themes revealed that the proper indicators were very dependent on the exact question being posed. The group also noted that some ideas for indicators relied on readily-available ocean data and information, while others relied on data that had not yet been gathered. The indicator framework should therefore include a measure of the readiness or ability to compute the indicator based on data available. This would also help identify which indicators or variables were tractable to measure. The working group decided to sharpen the questions they were trying to answer. The themes were transformed into more specific questions about the environmental state of the open ocean. These questions were roughly divided into five categories: physics/climate, biogeochemistry, marine ecosystems, fisheries, pollution. In the physics/climate category the questions are: What populations are at risk of sea level rise and extreme water levels? What is the cost (economic, societal, cultural) of sea level rise? What are the global teleconnections of precipitation / severe weather / drought / fire events to open-ocean conditions? Is the hydrological cycle changing with climate change? (this question has strong links to the other water systems in TWAP) How are changes in the cryosphere (sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets) impacting open-ocean: navigation, biogeochemical cycles and acidification, ecosystems and habitats, coastal communities? In the biogeochemistry category, the questions are: At what rate will the oceans take up atmospheric carbon, and is this rate slowing? What are the consequences on ecosystems of ocean acidification due to this carbon uptake? What is the areal extent of open-ocean 'dead zones'? What are the impacts on ecosystems and living marine resources? In the marine ecosystems category, the questions are: How will ecosystem function change with change in the open ocean (whether climate change, pollution, or other direct human impact)? What are the impacts on living marine resources? More specifically, how is/will the trophic chain changing? How are habitat and community state aspects of biodiversity changing, and what are the impacts on living marine resources? Which unique open-ocean habitats are most threatened? These unique habitats include: seamounts, cold-water coral reefs, warm-water coral reefs (shared with LMEs), largely pristine Arctic and Antarctic habitats, hydrothermal vents Which open ocean species are most vulnerable? What are the changes in ecosystem goods and services? In the fisheries category, where the group noted the importance of a parallel approach to the LME working group, the major question is: How sustainable are open-ocean fisheries, in terms of the fish catch, the impact on the larger ecosystem, and the level of by-catch? In the pollution category, the experts in the group did not include specialists in pollution, but the following issues were outlined as needing to be addressed: noise, plastics, shipping and pollution (oil spills, sulphur emissions/aerosols) invasive species seafood and pollution, heavy metals Preliminary assessment framework The participants of the working group had been provided with a strawman indicator template (Annex III). As they worked through the top-level questions, the outline of a refined assessment framework emerged as follows: A top-level global assessment indicator (a quantitative composite of various state/stress indicators) A map projecting environmental state onto areas of vulnerability (environmental or human) Consideration of geographic assessment areas; or teleconnections and remote impact Evaluation of the state of knowledge / uncertainty Evaluation of the state of observations An indication of the way forward in future observations: for each potential observation type an evaluation of impact and feasibility, trying to identify observation types with high impact and high feasibility Evaluation of transboundary governance arrangements related to the top-level question are arrangements in place? what areas do they cover? how effective are they? This assessment framework will have to be applied as far as possible to each of the top-level questions identified in the previous section. An example that fits closely to this assessment framework was suggested by Carol Turley at the meeting for question 5 on ocean acidification. The global assessment indicator is the percentage of coastal coral reefs threatened by ocean acidification, with a projected time series based on model projections. The map projecting environmental state onto areas of vulnerability is a map of aragonite saturation with coral reef systems rendered as dots, and in this case the map is time-varying with a projection. The other evaluations that are part of this preliminary assessment framework for ocean acidification are found as documents on the meeting website:  HYPERLINK "http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1" http://ioc-unesco.org/twap-1 Regional assessment units The working group considered the regional assessment units that should be used by the overall open ocean assessment. Fischer presented a number of geographical classifications systems of the open oceans that were designed for various purposes as background for the discussion of the regional assessment units for the TWAP Open Ocean assessment methodology: The International Hydrographic Office High Seas areas were defined for standardized ocean basin naming in notices to mariners and divide the open oceans into 7 oceans: North and South Pacific, North and South Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Arctic Ocean, and Southern Ocean The FAO fishing areas were defined for the purposes of statistical data collection and reporting, and divide the open oceans into 18 major regions, dividing most ocean basins into eastern and western portions, in addition to latitudinal divisions. One additional marine region comprises the Mediterranean Sea, covered by an LME Longhurst biogeochemical provinces divide the oceans into 57 regions based on prevailing primary productivity levels and pelagic biota. These provinces shift with seasonal cycles. Ocean gyres based on the physical gyres (subpolar, subtropical, and tropical in each ocean basin, plus those defined by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) define waters with fairly distinct surface characteristics (see also presentation by Belkin below) Assessment of Assessments regions - divided the oceans into 16 areas, determined based largely on convenience for the assessment Open Ocean governance arrangements - the work of Lee Kimball maps the areas of validity of different open ocean governance arrangements: the Regional Fisheries and Marine Conventions, and Marine Protected Areas and Conservation Areas - these are evolving and cover many overlapping areas Igor Belkin presented a dynamic definition for ocean gyres as a classification system applicable to the physics, chemistry, and biology of the open ocean. This divides each ocean into subpolar, subtropical, and the tropical gyres defined by the equatorial current systems. Another set of gyres is defined by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Belkin proposed these gyre definitions as being natural ones for the geographic assessment units for TWAP, as the chemical and biological characteristics of the open ocean are often defined by the gyre physics. They are also easily and dynamically defined using remotely-sensed observations. Ricardo Santos presented a biogeographical classification for Global Open Ocean and Deep Sea areas (GOODS, IOC Technical Series No. 84), developed by an international expert group for the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The classification was developed to identify ways to safeguard marine biodiversity in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction, and to support ocean management measures. GOODS developed separate biogeographical classifications for pelagic and benthic systems, with 31 pelagic provinces, 14 lower bathyal (depth 800-3000 m) provinces, 14 abyssal (3500-6500 m depth) provinces, 10 hadal (deeper than 6500 m depth) provinces, and 10 hydrothermal vent provinces. Seamounts were considered separately. A lively discussion amongst the working group participants led to the conclusion that at this point it was impossible to pick one scheme, as different geographical breakdowns had logic for different indicators and variables that would contribute to the assessment. The group decided to revisit this question in the future, taking an approach that would consider the logical geographical assessment units for each indicator, and synthesize a common approach in the final methodology where that made sense. Development of the variables and indicators The working group split into three smaller groups to focus on the top-level questions in physics/climate, biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems separately. These subgroups worked on fleshing out the variables and/or indicators of the state or stress on the system that were needed to answer the top-level question. In some cases the variables/indicators were common to multiple top-level questions, elevating their importance. The output is in Annex IV. State and stress indicators The division between state and stress indicators came naturally when discussion the variables needed to assess a marine ecosystem, but can apply more generally to all of the questions addressed by the working group. In some cases the state indicators are easy to quantify due the broad availability of data. However in some other cases the stress indicators are easier to measure due to the availability of data, and a model (such as the one presented by Ben Halpern) can be used to estimate the impact on the ecosystem state. Advocacy for a limited number of observational supersites, where many state variables can be measured in detail, may make sense in a long-term observational strategy for open ocean assessments - but might lead to other uncertainty and assumptions about the representativeness of the site. The state and stress indicators are one part of a full Driving forces / Pressures / States / Impacts / Responses (DPSIR) assessment framework, corresponding to the states and pressures components. As such, they may be useful in the context of potential future interventions by GEF and others. Models needed to relate stress and state, to make projections Models needed to relate measures of stressors to system state have uncertainties: from model error based on the parameterizations and assumptions encompassed in the model, input (observational) error, and the nonlinear dynamics that characterize the natural world. These uncertainties need to be stated and estimated to maintain scientific credibility of an assessment. Models may be necessary to the open ocean assessment particularly when the state variables associated with a top-level question are difficult to measure directly. For example, in situ monitoring of all coral reefs including deep corals may be more difficult than monitoring some of the known stressors, including fishing effort and acidification. It was also noted that the aspect of time and of future projection was central to a number of the top-level questions the working group had identified. When a global system was involved, corrective action taken only after a state variable was compromised might come too late to prevent a large-scale environmental problem. Other considerations The working group thus far has not developed the issues of governance arrangements related to the top-level questions. These will need to be worked on further. The output of the working groups is synthesized in Annex IV. Challenges ahead The group ended their work shortly before the final plenary with a revisit of two of the questions and further work on the preliminary indicator framework for each. These questions were 'What are the consequences on ecosystems of ocean acidification due to carbon uptake?' and under the question of 'Which unique open-ocean habitats are most threatened?' consideration of an indicator framework for seamounts. This work revealed some of the strength of the scientific working group assembled, as well as the two major challenges ahead. The major strength of the working group was its ability to identify simple top-level questions, and to identify the state and stress variables needing to be measured that are at the core of answering that question with full scientific credibility. These variables can be simplified into indicators to in some ways quantitatively answer the top-level question posed. The greatest difficulty the group faced was in taking these variables and simplifying them to a high-level assessment that would be useful to the client of the project, while maintaining scientific credibility. Key to this effort will be a description of the uncertainties in the indicator framework, whether they be based on a lack of data of state or stress variables, or in uncertainties within the models of impact transferring from stress to state variables, or in uncertainties with future projections where those are used. Future work The coordinator proposed that future work be focused in two areas: the identification of tractable variables/indicators for each top-level question, and the development of simple assessments based on these tractable variables. The identification of the tractable variables and indicators to form the basis for assessment of each top level question will have to consider the observations available in the open ocean, the uncertainty based on observational error and sampling, the availability of models and/or scenarios for the projection of stress onto environmental state, and the availability of models and/or scenarios for future projection. The development of simple assessments based on these tractable variables will then have to reduce the full scientific complexity of the natural system to attack the core of the question posed. For example, how can we assess 'ecosystem health', or 'integrity of the food chain' through the combination of the tractable variables and indicators? This step of simplification will require assumptions that test the scientific integrity of the assessment, but digest the information available to a form that is usable in a simple assessment. In order to complete the project successfully, these two tasks will need to be completed in order to address the first major deliverable of the project, an assessment methodology for transboundary concerns in the open ocean. The second major deliverable of the project is a partnership arrangement that will be able to deliver a future first assessment, and this remained as a future task for the open ocean coordinator, with support from the working group. ANNEX I Meeting agenda GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP) First LME and Open Ocean Expert Group meetings: PROVISIONAL Agenda and Timetable [2 Feb version] 3-5 February 2010, UNESCO/IOC, Paris, France All presentations to be ~15 minutes, with rest of allotted time for discussion DAY 1 Wednesday 3 February 2010Morning Joint Plenary Room 16 Time Agenda Item Presenter/ lead 9:00 - 9:20 Welcome and opening IOC, UNEP 9:20 - 9:30 Introduction of participants Adoption of the agenda Chairs: K. Alverson and J. Barbire; rapporteurs: S. Heileman and A. Fischer All Chair (Alverson) 9:30 9:50 Introduction to the TWAP project S. Diop 9:50 - 10:10 ToRs of the Working Groups, Objectives and expected outcomes of this meeting Chair (Alverson) 10:10 - 10:30 Summary of the TWAP interlinkages/DMI meeting in December including assessment frameworks, types of indicators (status, pressure, governance, socio-economic), indicators template A. Fischer 10:30 10:45 Coffee 10:45 - 11:00 Other relevant assessments: Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) S. Heileman 11:00- 11:20 Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis/causal chain analysis R. Klaus 11:20 - 11:40 UNGA Regular Process for a Global Marine Assessment J. Barbiere 11:40 - 12:20 The modular approach for assessing changing states of LMEs, UNEP LME report K. Sherman 12:20 - 13:30 Lunch 13:30 - 14:15 Methodologies and indicators for productivity Discussion including priority issues, drivers, scale, indicators, data sources, gaps T. Platt 14:15-14:30 Coffee (nonstandard time) and groups move to parallel sessions  Afternoon Parallel sessionsLME Room 16 Time Agenda item Presenter/lead 14:30-14:45 Organization of meeting (presentation followed by discussion, etc) Chair (Barbire) 14:45-14:55 Presentation of the indicator template S. Heileman 14:55-15:25 Assessment units (geographic, thematic) and boundaries J. Fabres 15:25-16:10 Overview of fisheries data by LMEs from the Sea Around Us Project Discussion of Fish and Fisheries module: priority issues, drivers, scale, indicators, methodologies, data sources, gaps V. Christensen 16:10-17:00 Pollution module: priority issues, drivers, scale, indicators, methodologies, data sources, gaps discussion  Open Ocean Room 15 Time Agenda item Presenter/ lead 14:45-15:45 Extended introduction: 3 slide / 4 minute micropresentations from members on their research/work with a focus on science information for environmental assessment/ management, with some examples or ideas of indicators all 15:45-16:00 Existing open ocean assessments A. Fischer 16:00-17:00 Priority and emerging issues as themes for the assessment presentation of strawman brainstorming and discussion discussion led by chair  18:00 Reception in the Miollis Bar, -1 level DAY 2 Thursday 4 February 2010 Full Day Parallel sessionsLME Room 16 9:00- 9:45 Ecosystem health- habitats: priority issues, drivers, scale, indicators, methodologies, data sources, gaps L. Wood 9:45 -10:30 Species Assessment as an indicator of ecosystem health, trends and as a tool for policy and decision making Discussion of priority issues, drivers, scale, indicators, methodologies, data sources, gaps J. Oliver 10:30-10:45 Coffee 11:00-11:45 Socioeconomics module: priority issues, scale, indicators, methodologies, data sources, gaps L. McManus 11:45-12:45 Governance module R. Mahon C. Ehler 12:45-14:00 Lunch 14:00-14:30 Linking marine assessment and management planning O. Vestergaard 14:30-15:00 Constructing ecosystem models by LMEs V. Christensen 15:00-15:15 Coffee 15:15-15:45 Interlinkages with other systems: Nutrient flux model presentation S. Seitzinger 15:45-16:15 Estuarine eco-health: issues, indicators and possible approaches Z. Chen 16:15-17:00 Discussion on interlinkages: processes, indicators, etc Chair (Barbire)  Open Ocean Room 15 Time Agenda item Presenter/ lead 9:00-9:15 Reminder about the TWAP indicator template and philosophy of simple, relevant indicators and graphical display Dealing with uncertainty, data gaps; including through expert knowledge and/or modeling/forecasting Chair (Alverson) 9:15-10:00 Assessment units presentation of some possibilities Gyre-based assessments of the open ocean preliminary discussion A. Fischer I. Belkin 10:00-10:30 Self-assignment into breakout teams: physics/climate, biogeochemistry, fisheries and ecosystems, governance and human impact as strawman split Discussion/questions about tasks 10:30-10:45 Coffee 10:45-12:30 Working time in breakout teams 12:30-13:30 Lunch 13:30-14:00 Touch base on progress as group, respond to questions 14:00-16:00 Working time in breakout teams, coffee at 15:00 16:30-17:30 Reports from each of the breakout groups with short list of potential indicators by theme Work plan roles and responsibilities for further development of the methodology  Day 3 Friday 5 February 2010Morning Joint Plenary Room 16 Time Agenda Item Presenter/lead 9:00-9:30 Mapping human impacts in marine ecosystems/drivers of change B. Halpern 9:30-10:00 Common issues and interlinkages between LME and Open Ocean including how to treat Small Island Developing States (SIDS), partnerships Common approaches, synergies Chair (Barbire) 10:00-10:15 Update on Groundwater Working Group H. Treidel 10:15-10:30 4 Overarching themes for all 5 TWAP groups (Breakout groups on each of the cross-TWAP - climate change, nutrients/eutrophication/oxygen, mercury, productivity) Chair 10:30-10:45 Coffee 10:45-11:15 Breakout groups continue 11:15-12:00 Breakout groups report back to plenary 12:00-12:30 Preliminary discussion of Capacity-building mechanisms and demonstration projects Chair 12:30-13:30 Lunch Early afternoon short Parallel sessionsLME Room 16 13:30-13:50 End users and validation of methodology discussion 13:50-14:10 Data inventory discussion 14:10-14:30 Partnerships discussion 14:30-14:45 Coffee (nonstandard time) Open Ocean Room 15 13:30-13:50 Discussion: reaction to joint plenary-raised issues specific to Open Ocean work plan 13:50-14:30 Preview of open points that need addressing as project continues: End users and validation of the methodology Partnerships needed to implement in future inventory of data and information sources 14:30-14:45 Coffee (nonstandard time) Afternoon Joint Plenary Room 16 Time Agenda Item Presenter/ lead 14:45-15:00 Structure of the methodology report S. Heileman 15:00-15:30 Review of decisions, deliverables, tasks/person responsible, schedule Rapporteurs 15:30-15:45 Next meeting Chair 15:45-16:00 Other matters Chair 16:00-16:15 Close IOC, UNEP  ANNEX II List of participants Open Ocean Experts Sonia BATTEN SAHFOS c/o 4737 Vista View Cr Nanaimo V9V 1N8 B.C. Canada Email: soba@sahfos.ac.uk Sanae CHIBA Ecosystem Change Research Programme Frontier Research Center for Global Change JAMSTEC 3173-25 Showamachi Kanazawa-ku Yokohama 236-0001 Kanagawa Japan Email: chibas@jamstec.go.jp Patrick LEHODEY Collecte et Localisation par Satellite (CLS/Service Argos) Parc Technologique du Canal 8-10, rue Herms, 31520 Ramonville Saint-Agne France Tel: +33 5 61 39 47 80 Fax: +33 5 61 39 37 82 Email: PLehodey@cls.fr Sydney LEVITUS Director World Data Center for Oceanography (WDC A) NODC/NOAA, E/OC5 1315 East West Highway, Room 4362 Silver Spring MD 20910-3282 United States Tel: +1 301 713 3294 Fax: +1 301 713 3303 Email: Sydney.Levitus@noaa.gov Eric LINDSTROM Physical Oceanography Program Scientist NASA Headquarters Earth Science Division, Room 3D74 Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters Mail Suite 3B74 300 E Street SW Washington DC 20546 United States Tel: +1 202 358-4540 Fax: +1 202 358-2770 Email: eric.j.lindstrom@nasa.gov Trevor PLATT Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans Plymouth Marine Laboratory Prospect Place The Hoe Plymouth PL1 3DH United Kingdom Tel: +44 1752633164 Fax: +44 1752633101 Email: tplatt@dal.ca Ricardo Serro SANTOS Director IMAR Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas Universidade dos Aores PT-9901-862 Horta Portugal Tel: +351.292200400 Fax: +351.292200411 Email: ricardo@uac.pt Carol TURLEY Plymouth Marine Laboratory Prospect Place, The Hoe Plymouth Devon PL1 3DH United Kingdom Email: ct@pml.ac.uk Christian WILD GeoBio Center Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt Mnchen Richard-Wagner Strasse 10 80333 Mnchen Germany Email: c.wild@lrz.uni-muenchen.de LME and Open Ocean Experts Igor BELKIN Marine Research Scientist Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island 215 South Ferry Road Narragansett RI 02882 United States Tel: +1 401 874-6533 Fax: +1 401 874-6728 Email: igormbelkin@gmail.com Villy CHRISTENSEN Associate professor University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre 2204 Main Mall Vancouver V6T 1Zr B.C. Canada Tel: +1 604 822 5751 Fax: +1 801 459 9734 Email: v.christensen@fisheries.ubc.ca Benjamin HALPERN Project Coordinator, Ecosystem-based management of coastal-marine systems 735 State St Santa Barbara CA 93101 United States Tel: +1 805.892.2531 Fax: +1 805.892.2510 Email: halpern@nceas.ucsb.edu LME Experts Zhongyuan CHEN State Kay Laboratory for Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal University 200062 Shanghai China Tel: +86 21 62232706 Fax: +86 21 62232416 Email: z.chen@ecnu.edu.cn Charles EHLER President, Ocean Visions Consulting 22, boulevard Saint-Michel France Tel: (0033) 143265701 Email: charles.ehler@mac.com Rebecca KLAUS Consultant United Kingdom Tel: 44(0)2081444027 Skype: rebeccaklaus Email:  HYPERLINK "http://us.mc396.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=rebecca.klaus@gmail.com" rebecca.klaus@gmail.com Robin MAHON Professor and Director Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies Cave Hill Campus St Michael Barbados, W.I 11000 Barbados Tel: +1 246 417 4570 Fax: +1 246 424 4204 Email: rmahon@caribsurf.com Sybil SEITZINGER Executive Director IGBP Secretariat The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Lilla Frescativgen 4a SE-114 18 Stockholm Sweden Tel: +46 8 166 448 Fax: +46 8 166 405 Email: sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se Ken SHERMAN Director NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory 28 Tarzwell Drive Narragansett RI 02887 United States Tel: +1 401 782 3210 Email: ksherman@mola.na.nmfs.gov Liana TALAUE-MCMANUS Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami FL 33149 United States Tel: +1 305 421 4760 Fax: +1 305 421 4675 Email: lmcmanus@rsmas.miami.edu David VOUSDEN Regional Director S. African Institute of Aquatic Biodiversity Private Bag 1015, 18 Somerset Street Grahamstown 6140 South Africa Tel: +27 46 636 2984 Fax: +27 46 622 6621 Email: david.vousden@asclme.org Partner Representatives/Experts Joan FABRES Coordinator UNEP Shelf Programme GRID Arendal PO Box 183 N-4804 Arendal Norway Tel: +47 97040308 Email: Fabres@grida.no James OLIVER Project Officer Global Marine Programme IUCN World Headquarters rue Mauverney 28 CH-1196 Gland Switzerland Tel: +41 22 999 02 17 Fax: +41 22 999 00 25 Email: james.oliver@iucn.org Ole VESTERGAARD Programme Officer Marine & Coastal Ecosystem Branch Division of Environmental Policy Implementation PO Box 30552-00100 Nairobi Kenya Tel: +254 20 762 4729 Fax: +254 20 762 4816 Email: ole.vestergaard@unep.org Louisa WOOD Head One Oceans Programme UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre 219 Huntingdon Road Cambridge CB3 0DL United Kingdom Tel: +44 1223 277314 Fax: +44 1223 277136 Email: Louisa.Wood@unep-wcmc.org IOC Secretariat Keith ALVERSON Head of Section, Ocean Observations and Services Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO 1 rue Miollis 75732 Paris cedex 15 France Tel: +33 1 45 68 40 42 Fax: +33 1 45 68 58 13 Email: k.alverson@unesco.org Julian BARBIRE Programme Specialist Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO 1 rue Miollis 75732 Paris cedex 15 France Tel: +33 1 45 68 40 45 Fax: +33 1 45 68 58 12 Email: j.barbiere@unesco.org Albert FISCHER Programme Specialist Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO 1 rue Miollis 75732 Paris cedex 15 France Tel: +33 1 45 68 40 40 Fax: +33 1 45 68 58 13 Email: a.fischer@unesco.org Sherry HEILEMAN, Consultant and Coordinator, TWAP LME component 60 Rue Emeriau 75015 Paris France Tel: +33 1 40590834 Email: sh_heileman@yahoo.com UNEP Secretariat Salif DIOP Senior Environmental Affairs Officer UNEP-DEWA P.O. Box 30552 Nairobi Kenya Tel: +254 2 622015 Fax: +254 2 622798 Email: salif.diop@unep.org Elina RAUTALAHTI TWAP project coordinator UNEP-DEWA P.O. Box 30552 Nairobi Kenya Email: Elina.Rautalahti@unep.org UNESCO Holger TREIDEL International Hydrological Programme UNESCO - Division of Water Sciences 1 rue Miollis 75732 Paris cedex 15 France Email: h.treidel@unesco.org ANNEX III Draft TWAP indicator template [~ 2 pages for each indicator] Indicator Name Brief definition and units, state or stress indicator Simple visual presentation (map/graphic) Relevance Purpose issue addressed [ecosystem goods and services threatened, societal vulnerability, etc.], applicability Transboundary concerns and interlinkages Other frameworks using this indicator (e.g. CBD, MDGs, etc) Methodology Measurement methods and calculation of the indicator including expert analysis, modeling, forecasting if appropriate Natural scale for application of indicator Limitations on utility Uncertainty and Status/capability of calculating indicator, assumptions Assessment of data data needed and gaps data sources Partners/agencies involved in the development of the indicator References ANNEX IV Open Ocean WG Top-level questions and variables/indicators The list below presents the refinement of the top-level questions developed by the open ocean working group with appropriate state and stress variables/indicators needed to develop an assessment for that question. When possible, some indication is given of the models appropriate for an assessment, as well as the governance arrangements in place. What populations are at risk of sea level rise and extreme water levels? What is the cost (economic, societal, cultural) of sea level rise? state: heat content, sea level, glacial ice mass, at-risk population density, economic cost of sea level rise stress: projections of future change models: for projections of future mean climate and variability governance: UNFCCC What are the global teleconnections of precipitation / severe weather / drought / fire events to open-ocean conditions? Is the hydrological cycle changing with climate change? (this question has strong links to the other water systems in TWAP) state: SST and ocean heat content indices connected to precipitation and storm indices (impact is anchored on land, strong link to other water systems), hydrological cycle index stress: projections of future change How are changes in the cryosphere (sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets) impacting open-ocean: navigation, biogeochemical cycles and acidification, ecosystems and habitats, coastal communities? state: Sea ice extent, glacial ice mass, Arctic ship traffic stress: projections of future change At what rate will the oceans take up atmospheric carbon, and is this rate slowing? [this example was not further developed at the meeting] state: ocean carbon inventory, surface flux estimates of ocean carbon stress: What are the consequences on ecosystems of ocean acidification due to this carbon uptake? top-level global indicator: current and projected percentage of coral reefs in danger from ocean acidification state: aragonite saturation, location of coral reefs models: for projection of future biogeochemical state, based on climate scenarios What is the areal extent of open-ocean 'dead zones'? What are the impacts on ecosystems and living marine resources? state (dead zones): extent and expansion of low oxygen concentration, ventilation, upwelling (wind), circulation changes state (impact on ecosystems): rate of change of oxygen as indicator of impact; biomass changes; for benthic habitats: bioturbation and bioirrigation; exploitation by certain species such as Humboldt squid that are resistant to low-oxygen environments (biogeographic changes) stress: eutrophication related to nutrient input, carbon flux, circulation changes related to climate variability or change How will ecosystem function change with change in the open ocean (whether climate change, pollution, or other direct human impact)? What are the impacts on living marine resources? More specifically, how is/will the trophic chain changing? state (physical environment controlling ecosystem function) stratification wintertime depth of mixed layer, spring/summer strength of stratification, timing: date of stratification passing a certain threshold (see also: Clancy and Pollack) many types of data and/or models can be used to estimate state (ecosystem function) primary productivity desertification of subtropical gyres phytoplankton phenology, community structure zooplankton biomass, phenology, diversity/community structure (linking surface to benthos): carbon and nitrogen flux to benthos (quantity and quality); light/transmissivity benthic community composition and diversity mean depth of fishing reported by fishing fleets - can be a proxy of ecosystem function as depth increases incidence of single-species outbreaks (jellyfish particularly, as an indication of trophic level / chain shifts) Actual count in some limited geographical areas HAB (in coastal zones, but related to open ocean temp) stress: fishing, pollution, physical change in environment from climate change models: human stress models such as Halpern's can translate from stress variables which can be measured to understand ecosystem state How are habitat and community state aspects of biodiversity changing, and what are the impacts on living marine resources? state phytoplankton community structure zooplankton biomass, diversity/community structure benthic community composition and diversity, by biogeographical classification (?) stress pelagic habitat and potential change spawning, feeding, wintering, age depends on environment, but also species temperature, circulation, vertical structure, oxygen as inputs to models to characterize and predict change are there key species that could be used as sentinels to simplify these indicators benthic habitat complexity - as above (pelagic habitat), plus morphology, mineralogy Which unique open-ocean habitats are most threatened? These unique habitats include: seamounts, cold-water coral reefs, warm-water coral reefs (shared with LMEs), largely pristine Arctic and Antarctic habitats, hydrothermal vents state distribution health: intactness, diversity-species richness-community structure, habitat complexity, coverage organic flux to benthos sediment traps thorium POC in sediments stress human activities that threaten: mining / gas/oil exploration, fishing, pollution: chemical, debris, heavy metals / dumping, noise global change threats (remote human threat): sea ice, acidification, temperature range for fixed habitats, modification of currents The unique habitat of seamounts was worked on particularly and is presented below: Seamounts had value as hotspots for biodiversity, for productivity, for fisheries, and as cultural assets. state characteristics: location, geologic age, integrity primary productivity community structure habitat complexity (including coupling to surface) organic flux to benthos fish biomass habitat disturbance stress fishing: effort, technology, bycatch (can use to model habitat disturbance) pollution: chemicals, heavy metals, dumping, noise from fisheries and shipping mining and gas/oil exploration changes in: sea ice, currents, temperature, acidification, oxygen, stratification models: can be used to estimate impact of measured and projected stress governance: Marine Protected Areas beyond areas of national jurisdiction are being worked on under the CBD, and under regional agreements such as OSPAR Which open ocean species are most vulnerable? vulnerability of a species can be estimated from: long life, late reproduction, etc. and the following species have been identified: Marine mammals (also vulnerable to noise, accumulation of pollutants) Tuna and other highly migratory species Turtles Deep-sea fish and sharks Pelagic seabirds Cold-water corals state: population health - abundance, size class and age structure, recruitment, habitat quality stress: fishing, by-catch, noise, pollution, habitat destruction (including critical habitat such as spawning grounds) How sustainable are open-ocean fisheries, in terms of the fish catch, the impact on the larger ecosystem, and the level of by-catch? the variables/indicators here should be closely linked to the work of the LME group Pollution noise, plastics, point source/distributed invasive species shipping and pollution: oil, sulphur, aerosols seafood and pollution, heavy metals  More information about TWAP can be found at: http:// HYPERLINK "http://twap.iwlearn.org" twap.iwlearn.org      PAGE ii PAGE  Section I: Joint plenary sessions and overview  PAGE 2 Section I: Joint Plenary Sessions  PAGE 3 Section II: LME Working Group  PAGE 9 Section II: LME Working Group  PAGE 25 Section III: Open Ocean Working Group  PAGE 30 Annexes  PAGE 34 Annexes  PAGE 42 $QUVors   " # ըՄxtlt]J$jhL3h15CJOJQJUh=h1B*OJQJphjh1Uh1hLh16OJQJh1OJQJh h15CJOJQJhLh15CJOJQJh15CJOJQJhLh15CJ$OJQJh15CJ$OJQJh15OJQJhLh15OJQJhLh1OJQJj *h>h15U h15$NPQRSTUVs " !gd1$a$gd1# : ; 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